Politically speaking, Kashmir is such a volatile region where changing power equations in South Asia can alter the whole nature of the dispute. Such geo political shift can have a great impact on Kashmir and its political future. USA President Barrack Obama’s clear-cut framing of timetable for the withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011 is creating a power vacuum which most probably will be filled by Taliban. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai is initiating a peace process and Pakistan Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani has visited thrice to Kabul in recent months. Already Riaz Muhammad Khan recently suggested that agreement between Karzai and Taliban might signify that Taliban is entrenched in certain key Pashtun provinces such as Khost and Paktia, “where they should be accommodated”.
The Indian perspective: The think tanks and policy makers in Delhi see these new power equations in the Hindu Kush Mountains largely favouring Pakistan. Pakistan is seen as a broker in any deal in Afghanistan and is fully backed by US in this endeavour. Pakistan always has a greater strategic cult in such a state of affairs. The problem is not much of Pakistan’s capability or strategic depth but the new jubilant Taliban force which can be used as a weapon by Pakistan against India. Already a text message “Mubarak” is spreading between Taliban fighters as a mark of victory against NATO forces. Coupled with this is the apprehension of a new Muslim belt being created in South and West Asia. Pakistan is already establishing a new era of relationship with Iran based on trust and trade. The cordial relations between Iran and India have already been damaged by India’s vote against Iran in United Nations during George Bush’s regime. Pouring more money and building new consulates haven’t paid much as the power balance is shifting against India. All these ‘shifting of power balances’ are forcing India to chalk out a new course of diplomatic thaw with Pakistan.
Taliban’s victory and its ability to shift its energies towards Kashmir, Pakistan’s strategic depth and importance, the creation of a Muslim belt with Turkeys ‘Look East policy’,  Kashmir struggle shifting from gun to stone, change of course from militancy to Intifada and some international pressure have forced India to develop new diplomatic discourse on Kashmir.
Pakistan is central in any U.S. policy in this part of the region. Pakistan is vital for China for its contacts with the outside world especially West Asia. The role of Pakistan is critical in stabilizing Xinjiang region of China that can be seen by receiving of Moulana Fazl-ul-Rehman of Pakistan by Chinas’s authorities recently. The whole West Asian society looks towards Pakistan and takes pride that it brings with it a nuclear capability. The breakup of Bangladesh was largely due to geographical reasons. Apart from this, Pakistan as a country has largely survived in spite of its multi-dimensional challenges and threats from various different ethnicities. Challenges always come with opportunities. The period of 2010-2015 is important for Pakistan as a nation. It was for this reason that Pak Army Chief got three year extension to reap the benefits of being a partner with US on ‘War on Terror’. If Pakistan as a nation-state emerges victorious over Pakistan dominated by non-state actors, the politico-geographic importance of Pakistan will only grow in status and standing.  
There has not been much condemnation from Pakistani establishment about Kashmir unrest. Pakistan would like to defer any negotiations upto July, 2011 to sort out its new plans in Afghanistan. Politics is not public relation. What we hear, see and report is official. Closed door discussions are always closed for public. The Indian strategic community cannot wait for those things to happen which will enable Pakistan to talk from the position of strength.
India has already started dialogue with Pakistan as persuasion/diplomacy is the only way of curbing its new grown power and strategic importance. There are many who believe that present crisis in Kashmir is planned by Indian establishment. Police murdered youth in Islamabad when they were sitting home. The way things have shaped up makes one feel so suspicious about the whole process of violence in Kashmir. Two boys in Srinagar were killed when one of them was playing and another was going to tuition, even one being forced to drown in a river. Shooting to kill and not to wound gives rise to conspiracy theories.
All these actions of murder can be a move to force Pakistan to talk. We can't see things from a superficial point of view.

(Fayaz Bhat is from Islamic University, Awantipora)

Lastupdate on : Sun, 15 Aug 2010 21:30:00 Mecca time
Lastupdate on : Sun, 15 Aug 2010 18:30:00 GMT
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