As Kashmir rises in fury and faces massive flexing of state power, a security exercise is unfolding in the neighbourhood from the high peaks in Himalayas closing on the vale down to the seacoast. Somewhere in the path is Chashma, which is linked to the trail. Living a curfew ridden life, recalling Basharat Peer’s Curfewed Night, the hard realties of geopolitics project through news channels on TV, recalling too what way Allama Iqbal said back at the start of 20th century:
Gharan Khab Chini Sambalnay Lagey
Himaliya Kay Chashmay Ubalnay Lagey!
Chinese awake from a slumber deep
Himalayan streams on a date to keep!
Yes Chinese are up and coming, as Zardari gets to China for a bonus, he is met with a bonanza…multiplier on 10%! Father-in-law had worked it out long back. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in foreign office in sixties, ridden with imbalanced security scenario vis a vis India, worked to bring Chinese in the equation. Some say, Manzoor Qadir-Pakistan’s foreign minister before Bhutto conceived it earlier. Manzoor or Zulfikar wouldn’t matter, were the Chinese not equally interested. China like Russia is not exactly a huge land mass with a narrow sea coast and that too, with the cold sea coastline. South China Sea forms a considerable coastline. However what is missing is ready access to warm waters-the energy sea lanes-a subcontinental security plus. Russian bear wearing its communist USSR garb came roaring via Afghanistan to gain access. Americans came in the path riding on the high tide of what is now derisively called-militant Islam! It served a purpose then; it is taken to be a deterrent now, as the civilizational hypothesis comes to fore. Russian bear didn’t burn its fingers only but lost its USSR garb too, as Afghanistan far from taking it to warm waters led it to ‘Glasnost’ and to oblivion as a superpower!

China on the contrary came creeping, not to lord over but provide help, albeit help needed to suit her designs. With diplomatic overtures to Pakistan, heat was turned on Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai-brothers after all have scores to settle, more often than not seemed to be strategy. Apart from making strides in Aksai Chin, it picked a slice of erstwhile [pre 1947] J&K State, in a border settlement with Pakistan. It came with a proviso to review it, in a final settlement of Kashmir issue, in and when it takes place. It did not translate into making China a stakeholder, nor did it assert any claim. Nevertheless, role of a watcher, even if distant was unmistakable. That is on high mountains, coastline tale has a geopolitical link.

While as Russians wanted to gain access to warm waters by a bloodbath, Chinese got positioned right on the coast on Gwadar. A port used for clandestine subcontinental trade of yore with the Gulf was given a modern hue to accommodate bigger vessels. In the bargain Pakistan’s maritime trade potential was sought to be widened, lessening the stress on overworked Karachi port. The huge works in Gwadar are still on. China in the process has lost many men-victims of insurgency in Balochistan. Pakhtuns in NWFP and Balochis continue to resent their assets passing into official hands. Many Balochis are citizens of gulf too-Oman and UAE, they thrive on clandestine trade.  Chinese are bringing new perceptions in subcontinental power equations.

Bhutto’s input in the geopolitical balancing exercise was carried forward by Yahya-perhaps his only positive input was easing Kissinger’s Chinese path via Peshawar. Ever since USA has taken a light view of Pak/China axis to India’s chagrin. Eventually the Karakoram link-up was converted to a viable road, widening Pak/China geopolitical prospects. Pakistan gradually was coming out of insecurities vis a vis India. India’s 1974 Pokharan atomic workout had Bhutto swearing to eat grass but get the bomb. He looped oil rich Libya and others promising to share technology. By the time Pakistan had the technology, Bhutto was out. Zia inherited his China policy and while he took Bhutto to gallows, he ensured to continue where Bhutto had left. Thus the policy became the cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy, even while Pakistan’s officialdom swore by Pak/USA strategic relationship.

With Chinese push for a rail link on Karakoram, as Zardari visits China, Indian worry is understandable. As if Karakoram to Gwadar link-up were not enough, Chashma falls somewhere close to geopolitical bridge. To the one nuclear reactor already in place, China has been preparing to build two more. As per reports Andrew Small, an expert on Pak/China- a fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, commented "For China, the counter-balancing element of the Pakistan relationship is more important than it was a few years ago,” The deal as weighed by various experts has various aspects:
(a) a "counter-weight" to the partnership between India and the United States, who signed a nuclear power pact in 2008,
(b)  rising India, and the India-US factor, China's traditional element of backing Pakistan is back more in play,
(c)  little room for Washington to oppose outright the Chashma deal after it sealed its own energy pact with New Delhi,
(d)  alienating Pakistan is not in the U.S. interest,
(e) offers Chinese nuclear exporters an opportunity to hone their prowess in building reactors abroad,  Chashma helps keep them in the game,
(f) protecting ties with Beijing and Pakistan or risking a diplomatic brawl-a western dilemma

India is already being accused in some quarters of opening the ‘Pandora’s box’ by going whole hog for Indo/USA nuclear deal. This is projected as opening up the provision of more such deals. However Indian plea of having fool proof nuclear safeguards in place, with Pakistan failing to explain the technology transfer, in violation of international safeguard norms has takers too. Pakistan's domestic instability is another concern. China, it is said may not go whole hog in winding up the deal during Zardari’s visit, however as the reports suggest, China is confident it would get over whatever be the international concerns in its expansion plans at Chashma-prime project, which is taken as a national objective. Karakoram rail link, coming down from high Himalayan peaks right upto Arabian Sea in Gwadar, the intensity being shown in developing Chashma has an added geopolitical factor of concern to India- establishing the rail link to Tibet, a technological marvel. 

While Indian strategists make out the contradiction, Pakistan sees only concurrence of interests. Indian concerns nevertheless remain. In fact 2010 started with ominous reports of Chinese push in Ladakh. There were musings of J&K Government officials conveying concerns to GoI. Chinese evasiveness in settling the Indo/Chinese border is a known factor in this geopolitical power play. In fact, it predates the communist regime in China. During the British Raj in India, the Chinese displayed a similar attitude, leaving room for a claim, whenever it fitted into Chinese game plan. Strange, it might seem, an un-settled border suits Chinese, much as it served the German interests in 19th and first half of 20th century Europe. The push in Sudetenland on the plea of un-settled German/Czech border turned into prodding the Second World War. Chinese followed the same pattern in 1962. Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru had been warned by Sardar Patel and even his own daughter; Indira Gandhi, who got suspicious of Chinese moves in fifties. Nehru however thought China could be contained, even if it had a few tricks up the sleeve, by his charm offensive. The result was the debacle of 1962.

India of 2010 is not the India of 1962. Post 1962 debacle, defence has assumed the form of genuine investment. And could those versed with that debacle fault the Indian national leadership, down from Indira Gandhi to Sonia Gandhi and her techno-savvy Prime Minister? In 1962, the forward posts did not have the needed logistic support, nor was the training of troops, as precise as it is today. India has learned the hard way that maintaining parity is the best way to secure peace. So, the push is not only in the conventional strategy, but in the nuclear field, too. Concurrently with the news of Chinese push, the defence strategy also made news. An eventuality of twin Pak/China strike highly unlikely though, is very much within the calculating gambit of Indian strategists. Developing a second strike capability, after taking the first one, a frightening scenario has been talked of quite often.

Indian Minister of State for Defence Pallam Raju’s was the first reported reaction on latest Pak/China moves "It is definitely a matter of concern. But we are taking our counter measures and we are doing our own preparation.” China and Pakistan, said the minister were "working closely together and cooperating closely on defence and strategic issues.” More reactions are bound to follow, as geopolitical scenario from high Himalayan peaks to Arabian coast waxes and wanes in phases.
Yaar Zinda, Sohbat Baqi [Reunion is subordinate to survival]

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Lastupdate on : Wed, 14 Jul 2010 21:30:00 Mecca time
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