How can a nation prevent its disintegration when it is attacked by its own citizens and by foreign forces simultaneously? The nation happens to be Pakistan and it faces the biggest challenge to its existence since the secession of Bangladesh. This time the trouble is centred around the federally administered tribal areas and the Taliban insurgency that has taken root in this region. 

Even as Pakistan battles its homegrown brand of Taliban militants who call their organisation the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Pakistan has been accused of harbouring and supporting Taliban militants in Afghanistan. The irony is not lost on Pakistan's rulers since they are effectively being asked by the US-led coalition to mount military operations against their own population and to allow the coalition to launch drone attacks inside Pakistani territory, often with the loss of civilian life.

Pakistan has become stuck in a quagmire. Initially, the Pakistani Taliban was confined to the Pashtun dominated Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP and now renamed Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), but the insurgency has spread to South Punjab and Sindh. Its impact is being felt in every part of the country. Some political analysts are forecasting a big earthquake that will not only disintegrate Pakistan but will have devastating impact on the whole region from Afghanistan to Central Asia. Some even believe the seeds of disintegration were sown on 9/11 when the US came under the attack of Al-Qaeda and the US took revenge by invading Afghanistan. 

If 9/11 has changed the perception of the US towards the Muslim world, the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in December 2001 has aroused much anger at Pakistan in the Pashtun belt that straddles the controversial Durand line dividing Pakistan and Afghanistan. It was thought that the sole objective of the US led attack on Afghanistan was to hunt down Osama bin Laden and his associates in order to avenge the humiliation 9/11 had caused to the super power. After nearly nine years of prowling and searching with the latest military technology, the hunt is not over and it has spread more towards the Pakistan. The US’s sole purpose of protecting its people from further Al-Qaeda attacks has not been achieved either.  Instead, the militants have become much stronger and bolder. They have managed not only to target US interests in different countries but have also created veritable “safe heavens” under the nose of the huge military deployment in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Although Washington is only losing money, and the international community its patience, the costs being imposed on Pakistan are extremely high. The country is losing its people, land and authority. It is facing blame from the coalition, the Afghan government as well as the local Pashtun tribesmen who have decided to point their guns against the Federal Government for what they see as betrayal.

Pakistan has more than five million multi-tribal Pashtuns in its tribal belt spread over seven agencies and other settled areas. The tribal areas have always been sensitive for the Pakistani government and it has until recently tolerated a large degree of autonomy by the tribal chiefs, as well as allowing the free flow of people across the Durand line. The Pashtuns living on either side of this line have never recognised the Durand Line that was drawn by British colonialists in 1893 to serve their own interests. The colonialists were fully aware of tribal warfare and the tribals' intense dislike of foreign presence. Lord Curzon, while creating the province of NWFP in 1901, warned his countrymen not to launch adventurous invasions beyond the province. The colonial power left the tribals to run their own affairs from politics to religion without any apparent intervention, going so far as to pay hefty bribes to tribal chiefs in order to pacify them.

Washington believes that Al-Qaeda and its Taliban supporters are hiding in the Pakistani tribal belt. Ever since the remnants of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban fled Afghanistan to the relative safety of Pakistan's tribal belt, US policy makers including the then vice president Dick Cheney suggested that the military should focus on Pakistan’s tribal belt rather than wasting huge resources and manpower in Afghanistan. The thinking among the international community is that the “problem is Pakistan and not Afghanistan” any more. Due to this belief the Pashtun belt has become a target for drone attacks, military operations and a hub of intelligence activities.

Due to the mounting pressure from Washington and the international community to crush the Taliban in the tribal area, the Pakistan military launched dozens of operations that resulted in the killing of hundreds of civilians and displacement of thousands of tribal families. This evoked strong resentment among the tribal community against the government of Pakistan for allowing Washington to launch drone attacks on militant hideouts and for using military force against its own population. The security operations have left many innocent civilians dead and maimed and some of the survivors or their kin have joined Taliban outfits to fight against their own army and establishment. The use of excessive force, including humiliating acts, have wounded the Pashtun pride. The military campaign has been treated by some as an attack on the whole population according to the Pashtun custom of badla (revenge).

Despite waging war on its own people, the international community still doesn't trust Pakistan and accept that it is sincere in its resolve to fight against the Taliban. Some elements in Washington believe that Al-Qaeda and the Taliban leadership have deliberately been provided a safe haven in FATA and have the blessing of Pakistan's intelligence agencies. The US administration has claimed that it has evidence proving the close contact between the ISI and the Taliban militants. Recently, a report by the London School of Economics revealed the close connection between the ISI and the Taliban leadership and condemned its efforts of working on some peace deal in North Waziristan.  Pakistan is under tremendous pressure to launch an operation in North Waziristan in the same way as it did in South Waziristan.  Although more than one hundred military operations had been conducted in South Waziristan, Washington has repeatedly complained that the army has been reluctant to capture the Taliban leadership.

 In the past, when the military operations did not yield any results, the government had been forced to strike peace deals in some areas, over which Washington had expressed its displeasure. However, the US is now trying to get the Afghan Taliban on board with the help of Saudi mediation.

So far Pakistan has failed in re-establishing its writ in the tribal belt. To overcome its own embarrassment and to please the US administration the army has framed a new strategy of 'lashkar formation' to fight the Taliban. It focuses on the political engagement with tribal elders, coercive deployment of forces and socio-economic development in the region. The government says it is the only possible strategy to win the hearts and minds of the people - something which has remained a distant dream until now.

Inside Pakistan, people are worried about the continuing violence and bloodshed but nobody is worried about disintegration and nobody sees the Taliban as an existential threat.  However, the perception outside the borders of Pakistan is strongly growing among international policy makers that the country is incapable of safeguarding its nuclear arsenal and to protect its own borders.

Many theories are circulating around in political and military circles that the plan of redefining the Pashtun belt has started its process a few decades before; only its pace was doubled after 9/11. The international community might be engaging in wishful thinking about the Pashtun region if it considers the disintegration of Pakistan a viable option and as a solution to the Taliban militancy in Afghanistan. The question, however, is whether any redrawing of borders will solve the problems in Afghanistan or make the region safer.

Earlier, it was suggested that Al-Qaeda and its Taliban supporters should be confined to south Afghanistan where US led coalition forces would then eliminate them. Yet, most of them fled to the other areas including the north where Taliban used to have no base or support and launched a few attacks on coalition forces to the astonishment of all. 

This could be another adventure for the super power but there is not a shred of doubt that it would lead to another human disaster in the region. Any change in boundaries will be difficult to contain to the region and will spill over and catalyse nationalist movements throughout West Asia and South Asia. Already, ethnic tensions are being felt in Central Asia as demonstrated by recent violence between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek people. The legacy of division lives in the turmoil of Kashmir, Punjab and other left over disputes. According to an analyst, Rahimullah Yousufzai, “Afghanistan is already in tatters; Iraq is devastated to the extent that it will take centuries to get back to normal. Pakistan is bleeding. And if disintegrated it will engulf India, Iran and central Asia. Then the whole region will have to be redrawn and reconstituted”.

(Nayeema Ahmad Mahjoor is a noted broadcaster who works with BBC, London)

Lastupdate on : Wed, 14 Jul 2010 21:30:00 Mecca time
Lastupdate on : Wed, 14 Jul 2010 18:30:00 GMT
Lastupdate on : Thu, 15 Jul 2010 00:00:00 IST