The ongoing unrest is altering the political equations in the Valley like no other agitation after the violent upheaval of the early nineties. Let alone mainstream leadership whose already uncertain credibility has hit a new low, even separatists are struggling to connect with the new angry generation on Kashmir’s streets who are cynical and contemptuous of any attempt to control and direct their activities.


The current turbulence has been almost exclusively driven by the anger of the protesting youth with some now underground leaders of the Hurriyat (G) faction trying to play to this constituency by issuing successive weeklong shutdown calendars. Moderate Hurriyat Conference, on the other hand, has found itself struggling to relate to the new emotional surge on the street. This is despite the fact that Hurriyat Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq led two protest marches through the downtown city but continues to be under house arrest ever since. However, Mirwaiz, even while publicly not backing the long shutdown calendars, has been quite vocal in his support for the mass protests. And protesters on their part have gone on with little deference to the directions of the top separatist leadership. This underlines a deep deficit of the trust between the leaders and the youth. A dangerous notion is gaining ground that the leaders are not necessary. The leaders are somehow seen as very tame in their approach and unable to deliver. Ownership of the separatist struggle appears for all practical purposes to have been appropriated by the youth. As a result, we find ourselves in a unique situation of leaders without followers and followers without leaders. Except for the now ritual shutdown programmes, there is no command and control system.

Perhaps no other example illustrates this reality better than the open defiance of the United Jihad Council chief Syed Salahuddin who raised objection to the practice of sustained hartals in Kashmir . His counsel has been rebuffed by a masked group of youth who in a press conference on Saturday expressed their resolve to get on with the shutdowns in the Valley till the achievement of their objective. ''Anyone trying to defy the shutdown call will be treated as a government agent,” the masked youth said.


This response is seen as unprecedented in the two decade long
struggle. Salahuddin - also the supremo of J-K’s largest militant
outfit Hizbul Mujahideen – is an influential separatist figure whose word has traditionally carried a lot of weight in the separatist political affairs. But here we are witnessing an extraordinary situation where even Salahuddin’s advice is seen as an undesirable intervention. Even he is being suspected. Has he thus too become irrelevant to the new stone throwing generation, a development that could easily be regarded as blasphemous in the Valley’s separatist discourse.


However, it is not that all the separatist leaders have been overshadowed in the unfolding new reality in Valley.  Some leaders from the Hurriyat (G) who until now were obscured by the overarching stature of Syed Ali Shah Geelani are in the thick of the action. Geelani’s close aide and likely successor Masarat Alam Bhat and Ghulam Muhammad Sumjhi have been chiefly responsible for spearheading the long shutdowns that have brought Kashmir to a standstill. They have been backed by the Dukhtaran-i-Millat chief Asiya Andrabi. We are witnessing the emergence of a new hardcore leadership which rejects dialogue and a solution on conciliatory terms.

Even though it is too early to predict any decisive change in the leadership equation among the separatists, the trend for the past three years indicates a marked shift towards harder line in the separatist politics. This, in turn, has narrowed the space for any separatist leader to hold dialogue with New Delhi . In the given situation it will be seen as a betrayal of the Kashmir cause and invite wrath from the now seething street of Valley.

In many respects, the prevailing unrest in Valley echoes the one in early nineties when spontaneous protests would emerge from every nook and cranny of the Valley without an immediate cause. There is same level of energy, same euphoria and same widely shared perception that Azadi is around the corner. The only difference is that the protests today are predominantly led by the youth, a substantial chunk of them teenagers as the death of the many boys in the recent protests more than underlines.

There is one more important difference. While a large chunk of protesters in the early nineties joined the ranks of militant organizations, the youth today apparently seem loathe to armed violence. Today’s youth are also disillusioned with the established leadership and want a quick change. A splintered separatist leadership split in two Hurriyat factions with some leaders also operating outside their fold seem to have lost the authority to lead. True, some leaders from Hurriyat (G) are calling the shots, but they are doing so in large measure to their willingness to do what the anger on the street demands. They are not leading but following the sentiment on the ground which is for one all out push for the achievement of the Azadi. What we are witnessing is an overwhelming play of sentiment and the anger with an absolutist goal in mind. Nobody seems ready to cudgel his brains about the workability of the current form of protest. Whether goal of Azadi is actually so near and up for grabs. And whether sustained shutdowns take us forward or set us back. However, while sooner or later the current method of protest will have to account for its gains, the ongoing crisis has nevertheless unhinged the political equations in the state. After early nineties, state government has never looked as helpless as it does now. The mainstream political parties have never appeared as irrelevant and the separatist leadership has never seemed so credibility-challenged. Now the question is whether this old order will regain its poise after some time or we will have an entirely new political paradigm in place.  For answers we need to wait and watch for the end of the latest round of Kashmir crisis.

Lastupdate on : Tue, 27 Jul 2010 21:30:00 Mecca time
Lastupdate on : Tue, 27 Jul 2010 18:30:00 GMT
Lastupdate on : Wed, 28 Jul 2010 00:00:00 IST