The next few weeks would witness a great thaw in the almost frozen relations between Pakistan and India as a number of official visits and track-II diplomacy seem to have taken place between the two countries. It provides a significant opening in untangling the deadlock and resumption of dialogue which was left for dead in the wake of Mumbai terrorist attacks. Unlike past, the foreign ministers of the two countries are providing sensible leadership and vision for the upcoming dialogue. It is widely believed that high level interactions can swiftly restore trust deficit and set positive guiding principles for rolling the ball.
Islamabad seems confident that finally sanity has prevailed over hostility and relations are back to normalisation. Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna has also pledged that his country would talk on every issue including Kashmir which is quite a reassuring gesture for Islamabad and Srinagar.
Before the Mumbai incident, both the countries had successfully narrowed down their divergent stands on different issues to find a compromised solution particularly on Jammu and Kashmir, while, reportedly, issues like Sir Creek were just awaiting a signing ceremony. In Islamabad, not only the ruling party but also all other major stakeholders seemed willing to build on already achieved progress without giving any credit to former President Pervez Musharraf, who had brought a major paradigm shift in Pakistan's India policy.
Recently, a number of leading Pakistani politicians, former diplomats and heads of the top two media organisations dashed to New Delhi where they held dialogues with their counterparts besides having meeting with LK Advani. Unexpectedly, General (Retd) Jehangir Karamat also travelled to New Delhi where he shared his views with the participants of a conference organised by the Centre for Dialogue and Reconciliation. Additionally, he had interactive sessions with the Indian army officers. These track-II visits provided useful inputs to New Delhi and Islamabad and helped policymakers to reshape their respective perspectives.
Several other track-II meetings and intra-Kashmir dialogue are also in the offing in the next couple of weeks which may create conducive environment for making some important decisions in Islamabad and Delhi. It has been finally realized on both the sides that people to people contact and track-II diplomacy can help enlarge the peace constituency between the two countries. It can also play a role in pacifying the conventional hate-mongers who promote jingoism on both sides of border.
The idea of dialogue between the premier intelligence agencies of Pakistan and India has been seriously discussed among policymaking circles who would want to include all the stakeholders in the process.
Noted scholar Amitabh Mattoo has aptly described that both countries are not moving ahead despite a number of parleys as establishments have not reconciled with the new ground realities, unlike political leadership. Against this backdrop, establishment of regular contacts between intelligence agencies is essential to overcome the trust deficit and defuse zero-sum game, besides sharing real time information.
Before formally commencing the talks, both Islamabad and New Delhi need to take few steps to make the entire process accident-free and result-oriented. Ironically, populists such as politicians, former diplomats and so-called defense experts carelessly make statements and write articles over Pakistan-India relations largely aimed at appeasing the domestic audience or improve their public image on media. Most of them are hardly familiar with the ongoing developments between the two countries. Television channels are prone to financial rewards and ratings and thus provide space to the known hardliners in their popular shows. It was witnessed in the wake of Mumbai incidents where anchor persons used to bring in uncompromising voices that came hard on Pakistan and thus an environment of hate was created. It would be prudent if both Islamabad and New Delhi avoid making escalatory statements at least at official level.
Though there is no panacea for restoring public trust on dialogues and isolate extremist voices, there is a visible forward movement on key issues. Both sides will have to play their due roles in making the dialogue meaningful. Fresh confidence-building measures in Kashmir would not only encourage leadership in Srinagar to take bold initiatives but also reassure the Pakistani establishment that the Kashmir issue is being properly taken up.
Indian Home Minister Chidambaram has secretly been in touch with a section of Kashmiri separatists while the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already offered Pro-Azadi parties to become part of the dialogue process. United Jehad Council, a conglomerate of 12 Kashmiri militant outfits, has conditionally accepted the offer which is considered a positive move. Mirwaiz Umer Farooq and some other factions have shown remarkable courage to adhere to their flexible political vision and not change their stand despite several threats.
Indian prime minister had taken up issues of human rights violations in his recent Srinagar visit himself. However, actions speak louder then words. The revocation of draconian laws such as Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) and Public Safety Act (PSA), the laws that are being used by the authorities to arbitrarily detain political activists and give impunity to the forces violations, can dramatically improve the ground situation besides paving the way for Kashmiris to join triangular dialogue with Delhi and Islamabad for consultation purpose.
Additionally, Delhi should come clean on water-related disputes and share real time data with Islamabad to minimise simmering mistrust about its intentions. In fact, water issue has tremendous potential to escalate Pakistani public opinion against India in no time. Likewise, Islamabad should also take considerable steps to alley India's concerns and restore public trust over its good intentions.
The culprits of Mumbai attacks must be brought to justice through a speedy and just trial. It can strengthen the pro-peace lobby in India and also provide necessary support to the Manmohan Singh government to stand against the barrage of criticism emanating from the Indian right wing and hostile media. Moreover, Islamabad has to try its utmost to prevent any future attack on Indian soil from within its borders. Heaven forbid, if anything tragic happens then it should not be linked to Pakistan, at least. In this connection, timely intelligence sharing can help prevent any such activity.
Finally, the government should regularly share progress through open or back channels with the key opposition parties. In the past, Pervez Musharraf had kept secret whatever was achieved during his era which generated suspicion and mistrust among people and other stakeholders. If the government takes major stakeholders on-board, then no one will have justification to become spoiler.
Likewise, both the governments should ensure implementation of a cohesive policy on all tiers of state. This would stamp out any misgiving between the different stakeholders about their respective interests.
Competing approaches towards conflict resolution send negative and confusing signals to different groups which can eventually undermine the entire process. Transition of relationship from hostility to peace and conflict resolution is an enormous task before the leadership of both countries. In this context, the upcoming talks should be strategically designed, skillfully implemented and fully supported by all the state institutions.

The writer is Islamabad-based analyst. He can be reached at ajkrawalakot@gmail.com

Lastupdate on : Tue, 15 Jun 2010 21:30:00 Mecca time
Lastupdate on : Tue, 15 Jun 2010 18:30:00 GMT
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