Much has been written about the political and human rights aspects of the Kashmir conflict but little attention has been paid to conduct thorough studies by employing scientific tools such as opinion polls and periodical surveys to gauge the public mood and changing socio-political trends in Jammu and Kashmir. Recently, however, Colonel Qadhafi's son, Saif Al-Islam, commissioned the first opinion poll to be conducted on both sides of the 750-km long line of control, commonly known as LoC, on the future of Kashmir.  The poll was conducted by reputable organization IpsosMORI in October - November 2009 and published by the Chatham House think-tank in London. The findings of the polls merit to be seriously debated equally at the public and policy level.
Traditionally, both India and Pakistan have claimed that the people of Jammu and Kashmir wants to stay with New Delhi or aspiring to join Pakistan, provided get fair chance to decide their destiny. Equally, the pro-independence lobby in Kashmir holds that masses favour to have their own homeland while All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) is champion of peoples’ right of self-determination pledged by the United Nations Security Council in late 1940s.
In a democratic setup elections determine peoples’ trends and aspiration but in recent elections in the state of Jammu and Kashmir both mainstream parties, National Conference, whose chief minister Omar Abdullah rules the state, and People Democratic Party led by former Chief Minister Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, publicly stated that elections would not impact the disputed nature of Jammu and Kashmir and they asked voters for support to ensure better governance and efficient administration and not to solve the Kashmir conflict.
On the other hand, state is divided between India and Pakistan. No joint survey was conducted, thus far, to measure the political and ideological divide or concord between the divided parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Against this backdrop, the current opinion polls produced striking results and illustrate that Azadi (independence) sentiments as well as issues related to daily life run parallel in the peoples’ lives and do not undermine significance of each other.
The survey suggests that the protracted conflict made huge negative impact on the lives of people. The polls maintain that an overwhelming 80% of Kashmiris felt that the dispute was very important for them personally – 75% in AJK and 82% in J&K.  Therefore, less than 1% people favour status quo. It clearly indicates that how the overwhelming majority of Kashmiris would vote for an alternative political scenario to that which prevails today; it was the only option upon which virtually everyone agreed.
In Islamabad and New Delhi some experts advocate their respective governments that they should not move forward until they get a favourable deal over Kashmir while people of Jammu and Kashmir seem as deadly against the prevailing state of affairs. It reflects that both New Delhi and Islamabad have to think out of box to alter the status quo in the favour of peoples’ interest.   
Likewise, people support the idea of free movement of people, goods and services across the LoC until the final settlement is unfolded. The polls suggest that the LoC is an almost complete barrier to movement. Eight per cent the respondents claimed to have friends or family living on the other side of the LoC but only 1% of the total population had visited in the last five years. Less than 5% knew anyone who had crossed the LoC in the last five years. It also exposes the cumbersome procedures imposed by the two governments of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service. Otherwise, over 20, 000 applications are pending before the deputy commissioner offices in Srinagar and Muzaffarad seeking permission to travel across the LoC.
Although, India and Pakistan have been engaged in composite dialogue and it is widely reported that they were almost arrived to a settlement but the Mumbai terrorist incident averted the deal. Unfortunately, both countries never tried to know the inhabitants of conflict zone’s response about the outcome of the dialogue. Interestingly, this poll shows that three-quarters of the population believe that bringing all sides of Kashmiri political opinion into talks will help to resolve the dispute – 73% in AJK and 77% in J&K. The majority support this view in almost all the districts of AJK and J&K. The poll suggests that such a settlement will depend critically on engaging fully with all shades of Kashmiri political opinion. A similar proportion (48%) felt the talks had improved the chances of peace. It appears that people support the Kashmir settlement through peaceful means and trust that only dialogue process can lead both countries to a final resolution of the issue but they want their say in the process being a party.
The poll shows that most Kashmiris see economic problems as high on their list of priorities, most notably unemployment. Given that the conflict is likely to be exacerbating the economic problems of Kashmir, a resolution will be crucial to improving the day-to-day lives of the Kashmiri people, the vast majority of whom think, as this poll demonstrates, that the conflict is ‘very important’ to them personally.
Many more issues were discussed in this report at length which can guide both India and Pakistan to reshape their respective polices towards the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The report underlines the urgency of settlement to improve the lives of the Kashmiris and to stabilise the region as the recently coined proverbial saying goes on that stability in the region runs through Srinagar.
New Delhi has clearly stated that they would pick up thread where it was left prior to the Mumbai attack. It is a welcome gesture but now New Delhi has to move fast to produce some tangible results which will be helpful to sustain the process. Last but not the least the driving forces behind this study Saif al Islam al Qadhafi should be appreciated for his creative idea and generous financial support to this project.

(The writer is Islamabad-based analyst and can be reached at ajkrawalakot@gmail.com)

Lastupdate on : Sat, 19 Jun 2010 21:30:00 Mecca time
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