The foreign secretary level talks between India and Pakistan in Islamabad today will hopefully take the renewed process of dialogue between them further forward. But the way the talks have gone so far, the prospects of a positive outcome look really far-fetched. So far the central point of debate between the two countries has been the action against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack. The talks have hardly moved beyond this. And from the way the two countries have reverted to their age-old positions on Kashmir and the other issues, the talks seem only further bereft of promise. That is, unless the two countries find a way to get back to the vibes and parameters of the dialogue pursued during years of the former Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf. Otherwise, all that we can hope to see is a few more years of the diplomatic merry go round. That if it is not prematurely curtailed by one more sensational terror attack in India or some other calamity like the exit of  former Pakistan president Musharraf from the scene just when an acceptable bargain on Kashmir seemed to have entered a decisive stage.  The fresh engagement between the two neighbours has come after the diplomatic freeze that followed Sharme-el-Shiekh meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yusuf Raza Geelani. Singh had backed out of the agreement to resume dialogue following the backlash in India against talking to Islamabad without any demonstrative progress in the action against the perpetrators of Mumbai attack. However, the decision to re-start talking has come as an unexpected climbdown after the sustained shrill rhetoric in India over the terror emanating from Pakistan. What has set the two countries again on a rather uneasy conciliatory path is the sudden shift in New Delhi’s stance on the relations with Pakistan. There are several factors at play. One is the larger geo-politics of the region with the progress of war in Afghanistan at its core. The unfolding situation in Kabul where Taliban is now sought after as a part of the solution has suddenly reduced New Delhi’s capacity to influence the outcome in the war-torn country. And on the other hand, Pakistan is suddenly in a greater position of leverage.  A normal relationship with Islamabad under the circumstances has become necessary to safeguard India’s interests in Afghanistan and retain its role as a party to the ongoing Great Game in the region. And on the other hand, Pakistan needs a friendly India under the circumstances to ensure continued stability on its eastern flank. The challenge before the two countries is not only to address Kashmir, their longstanding bitter bone of contention, but also to bring their divergent policies and positions on Afghanistan in line. With stakes in Kabul getting bigger and bigger with every passing day, much hinges on this new round of bilateral contact which follows a long period of mutual acrimony. However, if the process holds and sustains through the usual treachery of Indo-Pak engagement, we could very well hope to see some sort of Kashmir agreement this time around.  Through the effort of back-channels and a vibrant peace process during former Pakistan president  Pervez Musharraf’s years in power,  two countries have already arrived at a basic framework for the resolution of the dispute over the state. This could be built upon further to the satisfaction of the various concerned stake-holders. However, even on this account a perceptible progress looks uncertain given the fact that while Pakistan this time has chosen to give primacy to water, New Delhi wants the entire talks agenda to remain subservient to its deep terror concerns. This calls for a very Herculean effort on the part of the both countries to get the dialogue straight. And this is what makes the foreign secretary level talks so important for the subsequent top-level contacts.  Unlike the February talks which only generated further tension, both Nirupama Rao and  Salman Bashir will have the onerous responsibility to rid the process of its lingering frostiness. Their primary job will be to get the warmth back and of course set the atmospherics right. 

Lastupdate on : Wed, 23 Jun 2010 21:30:00 Mecca time
Lastupdate on : Wed, 23 Jun 2010 18:30:00 GMT
Lastupdate on : Thu, 24 Jun 2010 00:00:00 IST