The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the organization that in the first place has been filling the climate balloon with its own hot gas – says there will be no detectable influence of mankind on the Earth’s weather systems for at least thirty years, and possibly not until the end of this century. 
The 29-page ‘Summary for Policy Makers’ of the Special Report on ‘Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)’ (full report due in Feb 2012), released on 18 November, warns of the increase in the frequency of daily temperature extremes, heat waves, heavy rain and snow fall and droughts due to continuing global warming. But not primarily due to anthropogenic causes, like burning of fossil fuels!
In stark contradiction to IPCC’s past stand when natural factors in controlling the variability of climate, including its extremes, were relegated to background noise in favor of anthropogenic causes, the SREX report -- claimed to be prepared by 220 authors from 62 countries reviewing18784 studies –  says that the projected climate extremes will be due mainly to natural variability. Here is the exact wording (that you find nestled deep inside the report text in regular font style as if of no consequence to IPCC’s past greenhouse gases-global warming and climate extremes -- cause-and-effect -- propaganda!):
“Projected changes in climate extremes under different emissions scenarios generally do not strongly diverge in the coming two to three decades, but these signals are relatively small compared to natural climate variability over this time frame.”(emphasis added.)
What does that tell you is this: The climate extremes like, for instance, Mumbai deluge (2005), floods Pakistan (in 2010 and 2011) or in Thailand (2011), virtual snow burial of the northern high latitudes (2010, 2011), heat wave-induced Russia wildfires (2010), eastern Australia cyclone (early 2011), current drought in Somalia, Tri-State super tornadoes in US (25-28 April 2011) and so on did not come about, nor will the future ones for the two to three decades, due to increased carbon dioxide and other green house gas emissions into the atmosphere.
If this wasn’t enough, the report goes on to say, “Even the sign of projected changes in some climate extremes over this time frame [of the next two to three decades] is uncertain. 
Exposing another deficiency of the climate models, it means that whether the intensity, frequency and duration of any of the climate extremes, for instance, cyclones, would increase or decrease “is uncertain.”
What is there left to make mockery of the Nobel award to Al Gore and IPCC Secretary General, and of the Nobel Committee itself, indeed who been scaring the world with anthropogenically-induced global warming (AGW) will increase the intensity and frequency of climate extremes.
 And how shall the climate look like by the end 21st century?  Well, if the climate models can’t yield scenarios certain about a decade hence, a century is obviously far too away and hazy – notwithstanding the sate-of art climate models and computers. That is precisely the following statement from the IPCC report translates to in lay language: “For projected changes by the end of the 21st century, either model uncertainty or uncertainties associated with emissions scenarios used becomes dominant, depending on the extreme.”
In short, the three short sentences in the report quoted above debunk everything that you and I were made to believe about climate models not so much by those who earn their living by using them as by the media, NGOs, politicians and by service intellectuals who leave no chance to walk the climate ramp shows to “make a statement” before the gullible public.
The report raises some hard questions: Where does it leave us, especially the young generation in schools and colleges fed day in and day out on IPCC’s toxic chicken feed. Billions of dollars have been spent by Governments and private businesses to hype the notion that the latest IPCC report now turns on its head. Who will fund the rehabilitation of our thinking and attitude toward the natural modulation of climate and its extremes?
It must be acknowledged that the credit for the shift seen in the SREX report, though far too small to earn the IPCC any of the lost credibility, should go to the huge and intense wave of scrutiny that common public, particularly in America, subjected the previous IPCC report released in 2008 digging out numerous scandalous misrepresentations and fabrications of data.
Finally, it should be interesting to see if the AGW-protagonists cry foul against the IPCC and the authors of its report and charge them, as they invariably did the “AGW skeptics” of any link to oil companies.

(Feedback at bhatmi@hotmail.com)

Lastupdate on : Wed, 23 Nov 2011 21:30:00 Makkah time
Lastupdate on : Wed, 23 Nov 2011 18:30:00 GMT
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