In my last article with the same title as above which was carried by GK on 11th January, 2024, I had observed that mainstream political parties of Jammu and Kashmir are indulging in politics of ‘much ado about nothing’ post August 2019 as they have neither been able to enthuse the common people to any visible level of sensitivity towards political issues facing Jammu and Kashmir nor have they been able to get any fresh assurances from Delhi. And that there had been no forward movement on restoration of full statehood, an assurance given at the highest level on the floor of the Parliament. The least they (local political parties) could do was to forge unity to make maximum impact on Delhi and send a clear message that like other states, the people of Jammu and Kashmir also want a democratically elected government in a fully restored state. When that article was written, there was still some hope that the main local parties will work out an alliance before the parliamentary elections to win majority support for their narrative of full statehood, assembly elections, and protective legal safeguards for land and jobs. That hope about fighting the election in alliance stands shattered now. It would not be inappropriate to say, that all this has been done unmindful of the public sentiment and scrutiny. But since truth must be told, through all these antics, the politicians of Kashmir have shown their true colours, willing to be manipulated by invisible hands for reasons which can only be guessed, as many in Kashmir think. Whatever the compulsions, it makes for a sordid story of political double speak and deceit.
Actually, it may have been too naive to expect unity from these tried and tested politicians. Many among the Kashmiri political observers had already predicted things as these are happening now, based on old events and experiences including the political dramas in the pre and post 2014 assembly election periods and then coming together to form a coalition government which later seemed to have been part of a script written long before the results were out.
Kashmir society has never really produced leaders of spine, substance and consistency. Perhaps, there is something lacking in our value systems that prevents emergence of true leaders. Our political leaders behave more like MDs or CMDs of companies who do get someone to write the vision and mission statement for the company but know very well that these can be tweaked in the light of emerging business environment.
With the announcement by the Gupkar alliance parties to go their separate ways in parliamentary elections, the drama is set to stage. Which side of the dice will show up will be keenly watched. There is every possibility of unexpected results due to division of votes between parties and candidates with similar manifestos and narratives. This is exactly what the so called pro-restoration parties had promised to avoid when they first met under the Gupkar umbrella, namely People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD). That they themselves will tear the PAGD to shreds, even their worst enemies or most ardent detractors, least of all the unsuspecting public of Jammu and Kashmir, would not have expected when the parties met for the first time post 5th August, 2019.
The results of coming parliamentary election may make it a defining election by springing surprises. While no one can predict the winners and runners up with 100 percent accuracy, there is every likelihood of great churning and throwing up of new candidates for future assembly elections. That there is need for new and committed people to come together for giving better options to the people of Jammu and Kashmir is indisputable. It will be unfair to the people here if good people continue to stay away and do nothing to rid the politics of Jammu and Kashmir of the practice of hypocrisy, expediency and inconsistency. Our people must be taught to punish political inconsistency and opportunism through their vote.
One is also surprised by lack of forward movement on assurances of statehood made on the floor of parliament in August 2019. If the promises are fulfilled unilaterally by those who made them, the political space in Jammu and Kashmir will automatically become available for a fair and competitive assembly elections. The more the delay and hesitation, the more it will become difficult for the new players to step in.
Next phase of politics in Jammu and Kashmir will largely depend on the results of the parliamentary elections of 2024. If Jammu and Kashmir is to really have a great future, then the centre has to ensure not only free and fair elections but also free and fair politics in the future state. There should be no scope for political preferences as long as the politics is within the constitutional framework. Experience has demonstrated that even political preferences can be counter productive if unpopular parties and leaders are pushed up while pulling down popular parties and leaders. Patronising unpopular leaders or not honouring the mandate of the party winning the majority of seats can also unleash public resentment as in the past, to become a threat to security in a border sensitive state like Jammu and Kashmir.
There is lot to learn from the recent Ladakh protest for special provisions and for guarantees for environmental protection. Jammu and Kashmir being the ‘paradise on earth’ also needs careful handling, both environmentally as well as politically. While politics till now has never brought environmental issues to the centre stage, there is no guarantee that environmental issues will not come centre stage by the force of their own importance. Let us hope and wish the state is able to traverse the difficult path and come out unscathed to start the journey towards permanent peace and prosperity.
(Khurshid Ahmed Ganai is a retired IAS officer of the erstwhile J&K Cadre and a former Advisor to the Governor)