Jammu, Mar 24: Though, as of now, the scenario is not palpable as only two mainstream political parties i.e., BJP and Congress, have announced their candidates for prestigious Jammu parliamentary constituency yet if previous trends are an indication, a straight contest is in the offing.
The constituency will go to polls in the second phase on April 26.
In all probability, the contest will be a kind of replica of 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which witnessed direct contest between the heavy-weights of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, despite the presence of others in the fray.
BJP won the seat both the times comfortably, riding on “Modi-wave.”
WHO OR WHICH PARTY MAY DISTURB EQUATIONS OF STRAIGHT CONTEST?
As Congress is already in alliance with the National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a repeat of 2019, the latter duo will not contest from Jammu (as of now). There will definitely be other candidates in the fray yet one party (or alliance if formed), as per political analysts, may strike a difference in the equations of direct contest. This party can be Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), which with the right combination (read J&K Apni Party), even if not in a position to clinch the seat, may disturb the scales of balance (even if it is in terms of winning or losing margin).
This will be possible if DPAP decides to contest in Jammu or seals a pact for alliance with J&K Apni Party or other “like-minded parties or groups.”
NO DECISION YET: AZAD
When asked if the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) was exploring the possibility of tie-up with the Apni Party, former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad had a very precise answer to offer. “There’s nothing, yet,” he told Greater Kashmir.
Will the party field its candidate from Jammu Lok Sabha seat, reply to this query, was, “No decision has been taken on this account. So far, meetings have not taken place to deliberate on it. In any case, there’s a lot of time to take a call on this issue. We have already announced our nominee for the seat, which is going to polls in the first phase.”
Reference was to Udhampur seat, where election will be held in the first phase i.e., April 19.
Former Chief Minister has fielded one of his trusted lieutenants, G M Saroori as party’s nominee from Udhampur.
But is the party contemplating to contest from Jammu, at all?
“Right now, I reiterate that it will be decided (at an opportune moment). We will field our candidate wherever we feel and we are convinced that we have a base, we’ve a (political) standing. This will be our sole criterion (to decide whether to field a nominee or not and where), be it Jammu or Kashmir,” Azad replied to Greater Kashmir query.
BJP REPEATS JUGAL; CONGRESS BHALLA
The choice of candidates and the emerging equations further brighten the prospect of direct contest. Both the traditional rivals (BJP and Congress) have decided to bet on their tried-n-tested nominees by fielding Jugal Kishore Sharma and Raman Bhalla respectively as their nominees.
For incumbent BJP MP Jugal, this will be the third consecutive electoral battle from the same constituency and second time against the same opponent.
For BJP and Congress as political forces also, this will be a straight third contest for Jammu seat.
In 2019, Jugal had defeated the Congress candidate Raman Bhalla with a margin of 3,02,875 votes. This was in spite of the fact that the National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had not fielded their candidates to avoid division of votes. Scenario will be similar in 2024 (at least in terms of alliance).
For Jugal, 2019 was an improved performance. He had won the Jammu seat in 2014 with a victory margin of 2.57 lakh votes against Congress’ Madan Lal Sharma.
Following delimitation, Jammu parliamentary constituency comprises 18 assembly constituencies which include 11 from Jammu; three from Samba and Reasi district each and one Rajouri’s Kalakote assembly constituency. Total electors are 17.66 lakh.
The poll notification for Jammu LS seat would be issued on March 28, 2024 while the last date for filing nomination and scrutiny of nomination would be April 4 and 6 respectively.
Last date for withdrawal of candidature will be April 8.