New Delhi, Dec 24 : The third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may peak by February 3, 2022, claims a modelling study by researchers at Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur.
However, the forecast is based on the assumption that India will follow the trends of rise in cases seen in many countries globally driven by the Omicron variant of coronavirus.
The yet-to-be peer-reviewed study, posted on the preprint repository MedRxiv on December 21, used a statistical tool named the Gaussian Mixture model to forecast the third wave.
In their study, the researchers used data from countries such as the US, UK, Germany, and Russia that are already facing the third COVID-19 wave.
They modelled the daily data of cases in these countries to predict the impact and timeline for the third wave in India.
The study also used the data from the first and second waves in India, considering the number of cases with respect to time.
The model forecasts India's third wave of COVID-19 to peak in the beginning of February 2022.
"The cases start rising around 15 December 2021 and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, 3 February 2022,” they wrote in the research paper.