‘Chenab Valley, Zanskar vulnerable to glacier outbursts’

At a time when glaciers in the Himalayan region are melting rapidly due to global warming, experts have warned that Chenab Valley and Zanskar regions are vulnerable to glacier lake outburst floods. The expert warning comes in the wake of a glacier outburst in Uttarakhand on Sunday that claimed several lives and caused massive damage in the region.  Speaking with the Greater Kashmir, Dean Research, Kashmir University, Prof. Shakil A Romshoo said Zanskar region in Ladakh has the highest number of glacier lakes, which are water bodies formed by melting of glaciers. However, the potential threat of glacier lake outburst flood is more in the Chenab Valley, which has the second highest glacier lakes in the region, said Prof. Romshoo, who has previously headed the Earth Sciences Department at the KU.

“With a large number of dams and hydropower infrastructure in the Chenab Valley, it is at a higher risk of glacier lake outbursts. Besides, the vast population in this region alongside the river bank makes it all the more vulnerable,” Romshoo said.

   

As per Romshoo, of the 12,000 glaciers in J&K and Ladakh, there are 300 to 400 glacier lakes, many of which need constant monitoring and a need for early warning systems to be put in place by the government.

“Of the 2000 glacier lakes in the entire Indian Himalayas, only 200 are vulnerable to burst. In the Valley, we have glacier lakes such as Panjtarni etc. which are not vulnerable to  glacier lake outburst floods. Even Hoksar glacier near Kolahoi glacier has a glacier lake in front of its snout but with very less chances of an outburst,” Romshoo said. He said although the Government of India had asked the Jammu and Kashmir government to have systems installed to monitor glaciers in 2013, not much has been achieved.

“After the 2013 Uttarakhand floods, I was part of a committee which submitted its recommendations that also included constant monitoring of glacier lakes. The Government of India had asked J&K government to monitor its glacier lakes and create an early warning system but one needs to see how much of it has been achieved,” Romshoo said.

Romshoo said in the case of the recent Uttarakhand glacier outburst, there is a possibility that an avalanche would have hit the glacier lake causing its outburst.

Calling glaciers as the most important resource, Prof Romshoo expressed concern that glaciers in the Himalayas were shrinking at the rate of 20 meter per year due to global warming.

“Sometimes these glacier lakes attain a big size which is almost half of a lake such as Dal Lake. The outburst can be disastrous,” Prof Romshoo said.

The Hindukush Himalayas has warmed at a rate of 0.2 degree Celsius per decade during the last 70 years, leading to decline in snow cover and glaciers. This has been stated in a recent report “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian region” published by Union Ministry of Earth Sciences.

The report says that on the contrary, Karakoram Himalayas in recent decades has reported more snowing in winters. However, by the end of the 21st century, “the Hindukush Himalayas would have warmed by 2.6 to 4.6 degrees Celsius”, the report has stated.

Commenting on the report, Prof. Romshoo said: “Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh being part of the Hindukush Himalayas have been witnessing melting of glaciers during the last seven decades as a result of global warming”.

“Globally the climate change has led to an overall warming of 0.8 to 0.9 degrees Celsius in the last 7 decades. Our region has witnessed excessive warming by 1.2 degrees which is almost 80 per cent above the global average which has led to melting of glaciers,” said Prof. Romshoo. Romshoo said the meltwater supplies are highly vulnerable to changing climate which may affect irrigated agriculture, livelihood and natural ecosystems in the Valley.

“Usually the main requirement for water in the Valley to be used for agriculture such as paddy is June onwards. However, the fast melting of glaciers is resulting in excess waters in March and April in our water bodies. In the long run this will leave an impact on the water resources,” Romshoo said. Pertinently, the Jammu and Kashmir State Action Plan on Climate Change, a report prepared by the Climate Change Cell of the J&K government, has also warned that Kashmir is “heading for a peculiar climatic scenario with net temperature going up.”

“As per the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the temperature in Himalayan region has risen by 1 degree Celsius since the 1970s. This has caused meltdown of snow and glaciers at a rate of 15 metres/year even in winter,” the report reads.

While quoting the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) report, it states that Himalayan region has already grown warmer by 2.2 degree Celsius in the last two decades. The report mentions that climate change would have “drastic impact on hydropower generation capacity in J&K” possibly in three ways: Firstly, the available discharge of a river may change since hydrology is usually related to local weather conditions, such as temperature and precipitation in the catchment area.

Secondly, an unexpected increase in climate variability may trigger extreme climate events viz. floods and droughts, and thirdly, changing hydrology and possible extreme events may increase sediment risks.

The government report says that studies conducted during the past three decades by the National Institute of Hydrology Roorkee reveals that glaciers in Ladakh, Zanskar and the Great Himalayan ranges of Jammu and Kashmir are generally receding, and the glacier volume change ranges between 3.6 percent and 97 percent, with majority of glaciers showing a degradation of 17 percent to 25 percent. The 23-km Drang-Drung glacier in Zanskar valley is highly affected by western disturbances, the report adds. The action plan says that the maximum temperature is increasing by 0.5 degree Celsius per year in Kashmir Valley.

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