Experts attribute surge in cases to complacency

As the Government re-imposed lockdown in many parts of Kashmir amidst spike in COVID19 cases and deaths here, experts believe the worsened scenario is due to the apathy towards masks and social distancing norms among masses.

In Kashmir, where almost all districts have been classified as Red Zones, shops and many other business establishments were allowed to open, with certain clauses on 08 June. From 18 March, when the first case was reported from Kashmir, till that day, the Kashmir division had reported 3363 cases. Just over a month later, on 13 July, the number of cases in Kashmir have risen to nearly 11000. 184 deaths have also taken place in Kashmir, 83 of them in the past 13 days.

   

Prof Parvaiz Koul, head department of internal medicine SKIMS and influenza expert, said the spike in cases was in consonance with the surge in cases across India. “Experts had already predicted about it and newer records are getting set everyday,” he said. Prof Koul held the poor adherence to infection control practices by people “largely responsible” for the rise in numbers. “This seems to be the peaking time for us in Kashmir,” he said.

While dismissing the apprehensions about mutations as a contributing factor to the “increase in virulence and pathogenicity of the virus” he said, “Mutations cannot be spoken about irresponsibly unless there is genetic analysis of the cultured virus or viral RNA by sequencing”. He underlined the importance of genetic analysis for documenting mutations, which he said, was not being done in any laboratory in J&K.

As per records maintained by Kashmir’s COVID19 Control Room, over 70 percent of the people that tested positive in Kashmir till date had been in contact with a COVID19 positive case. Dr Rehana Kausar, Epidemiologist Kashmir and head of the contact tracing activities here said the surge in cases was reflective of “more than one factor”. “Testing has been ramped up, contact tracing is aggressive, incoming travelers have increased and their testing continues to be 100 percent,” she said. However, she expressed concern over the disregard to social distancing and face-masks and said it was the main factor driving the spread of infection.

Dr Kausar said people had somehow started to believe that the virus was feeble and the advisories inane as “most young people who had tested positive got well and went home”.  “As a result, the young people, when they could, moved about irresponsibly and came back home to infect the vulnerable and others,” she said. The Epidemiologist said that the response of individuals to infection varied and not everyone could bear the infection. “We now have people dying, often reaching hospitals too late.”

She said the teams often encountered clusters of cases and the “common thread” running through these clusters was “no infective control measures”.

COVID19, as per health department advisories, can prove lethal to people aged over 60, pregnant women, those with hypertension, diabetes and other comorbid conditions. However, official data from J&K has shown that about 20 percent of deaths have taken place in people who had no underlying disease or condition. Many of them were young individuals.

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