The Kathua-Udhampur-Doda Lok Sabha seat slated for polls on 18 April will see a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress, though the vote share of the two-time MP and BJP rebel, Choudhary Lal Singh, according to the people, may decide the winner.
The All India Congress Committee (AICC) has fieldedVikramaditya Singh, the Dogra scion and grandson of Maharaja Hari Singh for theimportant seat, while Lal Singh has been contesting as a nominee of DograSwabhiman Sangathan (DSS), a political party he floated after he was sacked asforest minister in the PDP-BJP government.
Lal Singh had been removed over his participation in a rallyorganised by the Hindu Ekta Manch to protest “selective targeting” of themajority community by the Crime Branch probing the brutal rape and murder of aminority community girl in Rasana village of Kathua district.
The seat is represented in the 16th Lok Sabha by MoS in PMOand BJP leader, Dr Jitendra Singh.
Lal Singh has been contesting the polls with a promise thathe would not “let down” the Dogra people (residents of Jammu region) if he isvoted to power.
In his rallies, he has been openly criticizing the alleged”Kashmiri dominance” in politics, bureaucracy, jobs, tourism and other sectors.
Most of the people in all the three districts— Kathua,Udhampur and Doda— believe that it would be Lal Singh’s vote share that willdecide the winner. According to them, if Lal Singh gets between 1.5 lakh to 2lakh votes, it “will be a victory for the Congress candidate, VikramadityaSingh and if he secures only 30,000 to 50, 000 votes, the winner would be DrJitendra Singh as Modi wave is still intact in Jammu region.”
There are 16,65,467 electors in total for the Udhampur-Dodaparliamentary seat in the 2019 general election with 8,63,19 male, 7,89,105female and 43 transgender.
In the 2014 general elections, there were total 14,69,072electors. Of them, 10,42,375 (70.95%) had voted.
Dr Jitendra Singh was elected as the MP with 4,87,369 voteswhile the runner-up, Ghulam Nabi Azad, the LoP in Rajya Sabha, had got 4,26,393 votes.
Mohammad Arshad Malik of Jammu and Kashmir PeoplesDemocratic Party (JKPDP) had got 30,461 votes, while Prof Bhim Singh of Jammuand Kashmir National Panthers Party (JKNPP) had secured 25, 312 votes and BSP’sDharm Pal Balgotra could get bag 16,437 votes.
Political experts believe that people of Jammu region willvote extensively to give Prime Minister Narendra Modi a second term. “But thepre-poll alliance of the Congress and the NC with ‘clandestine support from thePDP’ and cutting of vote share of the BJP in Kathua, Udhampur by Lal Singh andHarsh Dev Singh of JKNPP might put the BJP candidate in peril and this couldbenefit the Congress candidate who obviously has the support of voters ofChenab Valley due to Azad’s influence in the region.”
Harsh Dev Singh is trying his luck for the first time and,according to observers, has a huge support of people of the three assemblyconstituencies of Udhampur town-Chenani-Ghordi, Ramnagar and Udhampur.
Meanwhile, experts believe that other factors that may helpVikramaditya Singh win the election are: support of two former MLAs from Reasitown— Mumtaz Jan and Aijaz Jan of the Congress and campaigning by his fatherand former Sadr-e-Riyasat, Dr Karan Singh.
However, if the previous five elections are an indication togo by, BJP has retained the seat three times in comparison to two times by theCongress.