Taking an epistemic view of Modi’s optimism of situation in Kashmir and affirmation of support for good governance, the signs are reverse. The frantic buzzing of bureaucratic transfers and the bees’ nest of residual assembly members may not add up to accomplish his goals. As appears in the common man’s domain of knowledge there are no definite signals that the Prime Ministers’ declarations will be met with impunity. One solid indicator of enhanced security situation however remains unwavering and stronger than before that extends to cover the new managers in government. The cost to the exchequer of this cover is unknown but what is apparent to public is the awe-inspiring show on the roads at all times. The prophetic world view that permeates news is that J&K State assembly will not be functional again in its present complexion of membership. Media are in hot pursuit to get a glimpse of a coalition to happen but each party small or big deny common veil and alliance from the existing members. Even money and power does not work.
The Assembly will go through its beaten path of Governor’s scrutiny to keep it in suspended animation and wait for a consensus to re-appear that can form a government. Governor’s rule will have a candid approval from societal managers and all those who want functional governance for survival. In the end using Section 53 of the state constitution the assembly will breathe its last or the President of India will take over after six months and use powers to continue suspended animation or dissolve the assembly after taking prior consent from the parliament.
In the meantime J&K is in a political limbo like never before. One stark challenge that faces them is face saving before public. They elected members of the assembly share weariness and dissension to step in for power. In new elections the historical burden of last performance will be an encumbrance to elicit consensual approval from any fragment of society. The forecast therefore to reform a future democratic government for J&K is gloomy. The president of India may end suspended animation by a declaration to hold new elections. It is hard to imagine how the present contenders can approach the electorate to vote for them because that will necessitate revival of an account of their previous performance when they last held office. That may not be palatable to voters. The fact still remains how long will suspended animation remain in force, especially with the escalating turmoil surging and requiring a high degree of control mechanisms. Mr. Modi has confidence in his appointee Mr. Dineshwar Sharma to use interlocutory proficiency and keep contact with political spectrum across hard core population of Jammu & Kashmir. Modi drives the urge to form a parliamentary government aware of the fact that non-existent local government will be a deterrent to security operations.
In a situation like this it is amazing why the incumbent political stalwarts now on the fringes are not horse trading to associate in government formation but tearing each other apart with criticism and antithetical conduct of relationship. It is hard to imagine how they can sit together and run a government. In this scenario how much governance deficit will emerge and at what cost to public good?
In the meantime the Governor has used his experience and cobbled an administration set up using top experts with exemplary record of deliverance, honest work and dedication to become the top managers. People may accept the make shift arrangement from this new dispensation and use of civil group of technocrats with clean background to create a semblance of a political party. At best they will not permit themselves the luxuries of power, high levels of security and unlimited perks. They will distance from sensitive political issues and function purely in development work and sustenance of general living and livelihood of people they govern. The managers in their work will eliminate corruption, clientelism, favoritisms, and clashes in log rolling and log jamming exercises and agreements on appointments and transfers. It is an unknown quantity and surmise about what future holds in the governance in the years ahead of beleaguered Jammu & Kashmir.