Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is once again inglobal focus. Reports emerged that he had directed that prince Ahmed binAbdulaziz, a full brother of his father King Salman and prince Mohammad binNayef who MBS replaced as crown prince to be put in detention. This grave stepwas apparently taken on allegations of treason. As the Saudi system isparticularly opaque it would be a while before MBS’s real motivations would bepublicly known but this much is clear: this decision may mark a critical, ifnot final and abiding break in the manner in which the al-Saud ruling familyhas managed the affairs of the Kingdom for the past five and a half decades.This would be significant for the world at large and particularly the Islamicummah.
The founder of Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz ibn Saud who had fathered 45 sonsfrom numerous wives died in 1953. Since then, in a remarkable but not initiallysmooth arrangement, the country has been ruled by six of his sons—Saud, Feisal,Khalid, Fahd, Abdullah and from 2015 Salman, the present King. Saud wasvirtually deposed by Feisal in 1964 but since then succession has beenrelatively tension free—the crown passing from a brother to another even whenFeisal was assassinated by a nephew in 1975. King Salman broke this traditionwhen, soon after becoming King, he replaced his brother Muqrim by his nephewMohammad bin Nayef who he removed in 2017 and in his place appointed his32-year-old son MBS. Effective state power passed into his hands because of theKing’s age and poor health.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest producer of crude oil. Till 2011 itsreserves were the greatest in the world; that year Venezuela declared that itheld larger reserves. In view of Saudi Arabia’s pivotal position in the globalenergy supply chain the entire world and more especially the Western powers ledby the United States developed a great stake in its stability. There have beenrecent changes in the international hydrocarbons scene because of shale oil.This has made the United States which possess great reserves of shale oil a netexporter of oil. However, Saudi significance to the international oil markethas not reduced because demand for oil has dramatically increased in Asia. Thishas implied that the international community continues to have a vestedinterest in Saudi stability. Hence, it is closely observing MBS and the moveshe continues to make domestically and in the external sphere.
Western countries were greatly enthused by MBS’s initial policy decisionsin the social sphere especially those relating to women. He decided that womenwould be permitted to drive motor vehicles. Indeed, for a long time, Saudi lawwhich prohibited women from driving was held out as a symbol of the country’sregressive social attitudes in general. MBS also ordered that women would alsobe freer to open businesses and moving around in public. He also appointed thefirst Saudi woman to hold a position as an ambassador. Princess Reema bintBandar, daughter of Prince Bandar bin Sultan was appointed as ambassador to theUnited States in February 2019. Interestingly Prince Bandar was the Saudiambassador to the US for 22 years.
While these changes attracted global attention the internationalcommunity also noticed that MBS was unwilling to allow greater politicalfreedom or the right to dissent. The state’s heavy hand continued to be onSaudi men and women who were critical of any government policy. There were keptunder detention. A large number of prominent businessmen were also detained forlong periods apparently on corruption charges. The low point was reached when adissident prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi was brutally killed in the Saudiconsulate-general in Istanbul October 2018 by an official hit team from Riyadh.MBS denied any role in this brutal murder. While leading countries, includingthe United States, accepted MBS’s denial many sections of global opinion thathad looked favourably towards him were outraged. He has since then beencharacterised as brutal and impulsive. The second characteristic is in sharpcontrast to the traditional caution and circumspection that has been the hallmark of especially Saudi foreign policy.
MBS was appointed defence minister soon after Salman became King. Hequickly forged an alliance with other Gulf Cooperation Council countries tointervene the ongoing Yemen civil war through an aerial bombing campaign. Whileas a neighbour Yemen impinges on Saudi security the real reason for armedaction was to prevent the spread of Iranian influence in Yemen; Iran supportedHouthi militias were gaining ground. The Saudi move has not fully succeeded forwar continues, the Houthis remain in the field and the Yemeni people areundergoing great suffering.
MBS has also being aggressive in seeking to curb any move by otherIslamic countries such as Turkey and Malaysia to undercut Saudi leadership ofthe ummah. Earlier Saudi leaders also maintained their country’s primacy in theummah but they did so with finesse and discretion. On the other hand, MBS hasno reluctance to openly pressuring other states to the point of humiliation. Inthis he is like Donald Trump and it is not surprising that the two share a warmrelationship.
And now MBS has taken on Russian President Putin in an oil war which hasthrown the global energy sector in turmoil at a time of Covid-19 induced globaleconomic turbulence. MBS will not find Putin a pushover. Will this make himrevert to traditional Saudi courteous diplomatic ways?