Only days are left for the results of the Lok Sabhaelections to be announced. National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party andPeoples Conference have kept their fingers crossed.
Among these parties NC is confident about winning all thethree seats in Kashmir, while PDP and PC are hoping to at least win one seateach. But the low polling percentage in south Kashmir had made the contestinteresting as some people are of the opinion that Jammu and Kashmir PradeshCongress Committee chief and party’s candidate Ghulam Ahmed Mir can throw asurprise. On the other hand north Kashmir witnessed more than 35% polling andit could be anyone’s bet.
Election Commission imposing a ban on exit polls has addedto the suspense and who would form the next government at the Centre is stillnot clear. But who would rule the country for next five years will definitelymake a big difference in Jammu and Kashmir, especially in the Valley.
During the past five years, Kashmiri leaders have seen manyups and downs. The Bharatiya Janata Party started its innings by joining handswith the PDP and went on to share the power in J&K for the first time inthe past seventy years. But just few months before the general elections BJPpulled out from the PDP led government in Jammu and Kashmir and termed it as aparty with “separatist leanings.”
Since the day PDP led government has fallen in the state,Kashmiri leaders have been facing a tough time. In fact New Delhi during allthese months has ignored them (Kashmiri leaders) and has not paid any heed towardstheir suggestions. The National Conference vice-president, Omar Abdullah, hasbeen raising the pitch for holding the Assembly elections without any furtherdelay but till now no one has paid any attention towards his repeated requests.The million dollar question is if there is a change of guard at the Centrewould it help the Kashmiri politicians? Or the policy which has been formulatedby the BJP led NDA government would be carried forward? Things will be clearwithin a few days.
Both NC and PDP know it very well that despite low voterturnout the results of Lok Sabha elections do mean a lot to them. These resultswould indicate which party has got an upper hand. Centre cannot delay theAssembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir forever and if situation remains calmthere is every possibility about the polls being held within this year.
A few people are of the opinion that if situation in Kashmirremains under control the polling percentage in the Assembly polls would bemuch better than the recently held Parliamentary elections. Despite many newparties emerging at the political arena of the Valley the main contest will bebetween PDP and NC in Kashmir. Both these parties can’t depend on Jammu andLadakh regions. During the past few years New Delhi has succeeded in limitingthe regional parties to Kashmir only, while in Jammu the national parties havebeen calling the shots.
Many people are of the opinion that if there is no change ofguard at the Centre after 23 May, it would mean that Kashmiri leaders would beleft with no other option other than to soften their stand and toe the linewhich they would be asked to follow.
The BJP after breaking its alliance with the PDP has madeits intentions clear that it can run the affairs in J&K without the help ofthe local politicians. The happenings of recent months have made it clear thatthe people sitting in New Delhi are in no mood to give any space to the localleaders, who time and again try to highlight the political dimension ofKashmir. For, New Delhi Kashmir is a settled issue and anyone who talks aboutit doesn’t fit in their scheme of things. The mainstream politicians seem tohave understood it as during the recent election campaign none of the politicalleaders spoke about Kashmir being a problem. Their campaign revolved aroundsafeguarding Article 370, getting back the posts of Sadar-e-Riyasat andWazir-e-Azam and other local issues. Leaders didn’t talk about Pakistan and therole of the separatists. Whether Kashmiri leaders agree or not but the fact isthat there has been a pragmatic shift in their electoral politics during thepast few months. The Kashmir leaders have put the ball in Delhi’s court nowit’s for people sitting there to decide whether they want to give anotherchance to mainstream leaders in the Valley or not?
(Javaid Malik is Senior Editor Greater Kashmir)