Back to square one

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, steering his party to anemphatic win in 2019 Lok Sabha elections has left the opposition partiesdumbfounded.

In Jammu and Kashmir the BJP’s old ally Peoples DemocraticParty is on warpath with the saffron party since the day BJP pulled out fromthe PDP led government in the state. After the BJP snapped ties with the PDP inJune 2018, the party vowed not to align with the BJP again and describedjoining hands with the saffron party as its “biggest mistake.”

   

However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s big win has put thePDP in quandary. It’s not the PDP only, which is in the tight spot, itsbête-noire, National Conference, too has been caught on the wrong foot. Boththe parties have realised that whether they like it or not one of them wouldhave to make a compromise and join hands with the BJP if they want to formgovernment in Jammu and Kashmir.

Recent results of the Parliamentary elections have proven itbeyond doubt that NC has got an upper hand and its performance has been muchbetter than the PDP in most of the Assembly segments in Kashmir. Despitewinning all the three Parliamentary seats in the Valley, NC has realised thatit would fall short of majority and it would be impossible for the party toform the government in Jammu and Kashmir without the support of other parties.

The recently held Lok Sabha polls have left only two maincontenders in fray for the Assembly elections, BJP and NC.  Now it’s for NC to decide whether to contestthe forthcoming Assembly elections by projecting BJP as the “untouchable” partyin Kashmir or to keep its options open. The PDP’s performance in theParliamentary polls was dismal and as on date PDP—which won 28 Assemblysegments in 2014—stands decimated. The recent poll results have proven itbeyond doubt that if all the Kashmir based parties come together still theywould fall short of magic figure of 44 seats, which are needed to form agovernment in Jammu and Kashmir.

There is no doubt about the fact that BJP is on a strongwicket as it won all the three Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and Ladakh regions. Ithas also increased its vote share but the saffron party too won’t be able toform a government in Jammu and Kashmir on its own. The only possiblecombination which seems to be emerging if J&K has to have a populargovernment could be NC-BJP combine as the idea of non-BJP parties entering intoa “grand alliance” in J&K seems to have taken a back seat.

Everyone is aware about the fact that J&K cannot remainunder President’s rule forever and the Centre would have to hold the Assemblyelections sooner or later. The coming months are not going to be that easy forthe political parties in Kashmir. Many people are of the opinion that wheneverelections are held in Jammu and Kashmir these would be an entirely differentball game. Political equations can change.

The results of recently held Lok Sabha polls have thrown thefield open but the options seem limited. The equations can change in Kashmir ifthe polling percentage increases and more people come out to exercise theirfranchise. President of Awami Ithad Party, Er Rashid and  Peoples Conference led by Sajad Gani Lonebagging more than one lakh votes respectively in north Kashmir has opened yetanother chapter in the political history of Kashmir. Another young leader, IAS topper, Shah Faesal, too can throwfew surprises if youth decide to become a part of the electoral process. ButJ&K’s “Grand Old Party” National Conference is all set to gain due to PDPlosing its ground across the Valley. In 2014, PDP gained due to NC’s debacleand in 2019, NC has made a strong comeback due to the mistakes committed by thePDP. This cycle would continue till the new parties which are emerging on thepolitical arena of the Valley gain some ground.

If National Conference emerges as the main player after theAssembly elections in the state it would be interesting to watch whether itwould follow the footsteps of PDP to regain the power or it would try somethingdifferent to keep New Delhi busy.

(Javaid Malik is Senior Editor Greater Kashmir)

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