Changing world order and India

Greater Kashmir

For the first time since the end of the Cold War the global order is experiencing a tectonic shift. America’s unwinnable wars in the Middle East and Russia’s resurgence in the region along with China’s growing economic and military clout across Asia, Africa, and all the way to the steppes of Central Asia have made the end of US-centric world order discernible.

Although America’s hegemony in the Middle East and Africa has been on the wane for over a decade, its erratic foreign policy moves under Donald Trump’s presidency and failure to minimize the spread of corona virus infection in the country has accelerated its loss of influence at the global stage.

Western block led by America fears China’s rise more than Russia’s, as China has the required financial strength to sustain its military ambitions. This financial position of China will be further strengthened by the ongoing CPEC and OBOR project which will make it the undeclared master of whole of Asia and parts of Africa as well. This network of roads, rails and sea links will strengthen its grip over these countries economically, and therefore politically.

It has become the top most priority of West led by America to stop China from snatching away its status of domination on the global stage. Political instability leading to a war, or war like situation, is the only way to stop or disrupt the growth of a progressive and powerful country like China.

How to create a war, or a war like situation

West needs to create disturbance in whole of Asia in order to create a disruption in China and to limit its support from its allies. China is not a marginal country like any other country America invaded in the past. Nor will proxies work with China. A direct confrontation between strong American allies in Asia against China is needed meanwhile keeping China’s powerful allies like Turkey, Iran, Russia and Pakistan busy in other regional and internal wars so as to stop them from uniting and becoming a support to it. America seems to have divided this whole process into two segments:

1. Disturb middle east: America strategically withdrew its forces from Syria which left Russia, Iran and Turkey in a head-to-head conflict in Syria. But it seems that Turkey, Iran and Russia have matured as nations and could see through the strategies of West that was to sow discord between them. Therefore they are not escalating the situation to a point of no return.

And recently Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan spoke of golden ring, China-Pakistan-Russia -Iran-Turkey,  that would link Gawadar port in Pakistan and Chabbar port in Iran to China by rail network. It  will eventually bring these countries closer.

While Trump’s government was trying to make situation more complicated in Syria, on the side lines of it a new road map was approved for the new Israel plan. This new plan was completely against the two nation theory which was propagated and promoted by America itself till recent times. The new plan allows Israel to annex large parts of the West Bank. This move, if executed, by Israel will lead to lot of bloodshed in the area and involve lot of nations and radicalize millions of Muslim youth. Though more than being smart here, this plan can back fire as this is the cause which can bind Turks and Persians like never before, and of which we are already seeing some signs.

2. In the subcontinent:  America is putting its ally India at the front and pulling the strings. American government taking a note of the radical and aggressive plans of government of India saw a chance of achieving their goals through GoI as their plan are sync with each other. India under BJP wants to be the strong man of Asia and has an ambitious policy.

America’s main aim is to stop Chinese growth and give it a psychological set back and what better than creating a hitch in its CPEC and OBOR projects, that cross through Pakistan administrated Kashmir. So India and America become natural partner in this scenario. At the behest of America, and with its ambition in mind, GoI started a narrative of attacking Pakistan administrated Kashmir, and also Aksai Chin that is under China. This definitely did upset China.

All this led to a face-off between India and China where PLA has reportedly taken over key location across LAC in past few months. China after crossing into certain areas of Indian side of LAC in east Ladakh region is showing no sign of retreating, as some reports suggest. This conflict, still going on, has the potential to blow into a full fledged war, even into a world war.

Indian government should remember that America is notoriously known to desert their friends at the most critical times, a recent example of that being their betrayal of Kurds in Syria and then of Afghan government as well. And for India depending on today’s West specially is not a wise decision as West is moving towards isolationist policy, and its economy is not doing so great either. American intelligence knows confronting China will be disastrous though will not mind a friction between China and India, and will be comfortable to assist India with its limited support from its bases in Asia.

That leaves India surrounded by its foes on all the sides. Nepal and Pakistan are ready allies of China in this scenario, and in coming times may be even Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka join China against India.

The fact that nations invoke maps and agreements which can be centuries old when they get a chance to reclaim some land and sometimes just for glory, is very well known. Example of such events is recent claim by Nepal over a certain area under Indian control in Uttrakhand on the basis of agreements which are older than a century. Nepal is able to pass such bold statements because the Chinese support is making it feel powerful. Similarly, Pakistan economy will be boosted by CPEC and OBOR projects which will systematically make its war experienced militarily even stronger, which already has Chinese support. The economic benefits from CPEC are so significant that it has become the reason why UAE is supporting India and is speaking against Pakistan on Kashmir issue. The Gawadar port which is part of CPEC project is expected to take away 50% of Dubai port work.

In political philosophy it is taught that with power comes assertion. So Pakistan, if not now, but may be in 5 or 10 years from now will take up issues with India with more aggressive stand; it might end up in a war then, if not now.

China in this case will want to solve the issue now rather than keeping it for later times. A strong military action will serve various purpose for their own benefit as well. Such actions will not only help in securing the projects but will also send a strong message to the west and India demanding an end to their intervention In Honk Kong and South China sea.

Best Solution

All the three countries – India, Pakistan and China – should not let it drop from their minds that each individual (which can translate into collective conscience for a nation) has nihilistic elements which can be instigated if things cross the line of dignity, or go beyond a manageable compromise. One option is of total destruction, if all the countries refuse to participate in peaceful ways of resolving a conflict. Where the whole world should remember that this conflict can end in a nuclear war. Such a war will not only destroy this region but will affect the whole world. Like the corona virus affected the whole world, these nukes can affect the atmosphere of the entire globe when already we are suffering from climate change. Peace through dialogue will save lot of bloodshed, strengthen the economy. And If India joins OBOR and CPEC project it can give its economy a major boost and make cordial environment in the whole region. Both India and Pakistan can elevate themselves from poverty if they decide to think positively, progressively and humanely. We all should look east rather depending on west who have plundered our resources in recent history.