If Narendra Modi’s BJP romps home to victory in the justannounced General Elections in the face of all-pervasive public anger againstthe regime for the mindboggling mess it has made of the country, the credit forhis unlikely success would go to the opposition.
Whether the stunning February 14 attack on security forces in Kashmir’s Pulwama and the subsequent Indian ‘strikes’ on Balakot in Pakistan were scripted or not, the BJP led by the Prime Minister himself has been quick to catch it with both hands.
True to its character, the Hindutva party jumped on the opportunity to turn Pulwama and Pakistan’s support for “Kashmiri terrorists” into the hot, emotive topic of national conversation on eve of polls, snuffing out more pressing, bread-and-butter issues like the unprecedented unemployment crisis, agrarian distress and scams involving Modi and his cronies.
While the BJP has gone to town brazenly milking the Balakotstrikes that nearly took the two nuclear neighbours to war, and the return ofCommander Abhinandan from Pakistan — thanks to Imran Khan’s laudable maturity,one must add – in every way imaginable, the opposition has remained deafeninglysilent and virtually disappeared from the nation’s news agenda.
Instead of demanding answers about Pulwama and the criminal negligence of vital intelligence inputs, the opposition maintained a reverential silence for fear of being declared ‘traitors’ and ‘anti-nationals.’
Even when some opposition leaders such as Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee mustered the courage to raise inconvenient questions about the mysterious strikes that seem to have killed no one, let alone destroy the so-called terror infrastructure as the government has claimed, their stray voices have been drowned out by the din of the jingoistic, obsequious Indian media.
Rather than respond to Pulwama and the subsequentdevelopments with alacrity and maturity, evolving its own independentnarrative, the opposition has just dutifully, eyes wide shut, followed thegovernment’s agenda. In doing so, as the BJP veteran Yashwant Sinha argues, theopposition has walked into every trap set by Modi.
After all, many of those who have closely followed thepolitical journey of Prime Minister Modi and his doppelganger Amit Shah and theway the duo think and operate have long worried that a besieged BJP may springup a nasty surprise or two on poll eve. The twin likely scenarios suggestedinclude a showdown with our pesky Western neighbour or a major communalconflagration in the Hindi heartland over Ram temple at the site of BabriMasjid in Ayodhya. Remember the 2002 Gujarat? Remember Godhra?
Whatever the reality of such speculations and rumours, it isclear that the opposition has squandered the momentum it had generated beforethe Pulwama attack and staged showdown with Pakistan. It has once again allowed the BJP and itscrafty strategist duo to set the agenda for the 2019 polls, pegging itsuccessfully on the twin planks of muscular nationalism and Hindutvamajoritarianism. The government has so cleverly been conflated with the nationthat any questioning of official narrative is treason.
It’s not just in setting the electoral agenda and pushing awinning narrative that the BJP with its massive organisational machinery,ideologically-driven cadres and deep pockets has been far ahead of the Congressand other parties; it has been the first to hit the ground running.
At the height of the terrifying crisis with Pakistan, theCongress went out of its way to support the government. It promptly called offa strategic meeting of its working committee in Gujarat, on Modi’s turf, indeference to the national sentiments over Pulwama even as the BJP went aheadkicking off its poll campaign, ‘Mera Booth Sabse Mazboot’ with great fanfare.
This remarkable unity of purpose in the BJP campdemonstrating its fierce resolve to hold on to power at any cost is onlymatched by the disarray, division and palpable demoralisation in the oppositionranks, as if it has already been defeated.
While the BJP has gone out of its way to court cantankerousallies like Shiv Sena’s Thackeray and Bihar’s Nitish Kumar, Rahul Gandhi’sCongress exasperatingly refuses to come off its high horse.
As Arati Jerarth notes in the Times of India, “The Opposition’s inability to get its act together is perplexing, especially after BJP went full throttle with the ‘nationalism’ plank. After months of meeting, holding rallies and supping together, Opposition parties are still grappling to craft a grand alliance to take on Modi.
Smaller regional parties have emphasised time and again that the onus for stitching up an opposition front rests with Congress. Crafting a coalition needs skill, pragmatism and a large heart. Rahul Gandhi’s Congress seems to lack all three. While Rahul Gandhi seems reluctant to learn from history in a high-stakes election, Modi has shown no such inhibitions. He has sealed alliances wherever possible with an alacrity that flies in the face of the perception that he is not a coalition man.”
Unlike his more pragmatic mother, who cobbled together a formidablealliance reaching out to unlikely allies like Ram Vilas Paswan, to defeat theBJP in 2004, Rahul has so far failed to rally opposition parties behind theCongress despite the relentless efforts of former BJP allies like ChandrababuNaidu. Instead of acting as the pivot and fulcrum of opposition unity, Rahul’sparty is turning out to be the weakest link.
It was the Congress’ refusal to partner with Mayawati’sDalit party in the upper caste dominated Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan that ledto the party being cut to size in Uttar Pradesh. A miffed Mayawati decided toteach the Congress a lesson, which may, in the end, determine the fate of thenext government in Delhi and the future of India itself.
If only the BSP and SP had demonstrated greater maturity andaccommodated the Congress in their alliance in the battleground state of UP,which sends 80 members to Parliament, the saffron juggernaut could have beenstopped in its tracks.
If the BJP once again manages to win UP and eventuallyIndia, it would not just be because of Pulwama and the ‘Surgical Strikes 2.0’but also because of the fact that the it managed to attract and accommodateenough allies and friends while the Congress simply couldn’t.
Indeed, Modi may have already turned around this electionnot just because of the manner he has responded to and exploited theextraordinary events of the past few weeks but also because he is leaving nostone unturned to ensure the BJP wins 2019 and remains in power for theforeseeable future.
Which is a tragic irony considering the unmitigated disaster that this government has turned out to be on every front. The economy is still reeling from the double disaster of demonetisation and GST. Doggedly pursuing its sectarian agenda, it has methodically targeted every Indian institution — from bureaucracy and police to judiciary, and from universities and think tanks to even film and television industry.
Why it hasn’t even spared the secular institution of armed forces, shamelessly dragging them into its attacks on opposition parties! This regime has literally normalised and routinised the all-pervasive witch-hunt and persecution of Muslims. The attacks on Muslims in broad daylight do not even make it to newspaper front pages anymore.
Yet if the BJP still gets away with murder and repeat itselectoral success in 2019, it would be because the opposition has done littleto stop Modi and his war on the Idea of India. If Hindutva wins, it would be because of the opposition’s singularfailure to check it. This is still the opposition’s election to lose.
Aijaz Zaka Syed is an award-winning journalist and former editor.