Pandemic Covid-19 has send the whole world into a tizzy. Onone hand the world is grappling with its first round effects in terms ofcolossal loss to the life and health, the consequential effects on worldeconomy of Covid-19 are far more detrimental and catastrophic.
Originating in the month of December from Wuhan, themanufacturing engine of the world’s second best economy, Corona Virus Disease2019 (Covid-19) has gone global within the span of two months pushing the WorldHealth Organization to declare it a Pandemic. So far the only antidote, HealthScientists and experts all over the world have been able to discover is twoword mantra of Social Distancing- a response which is purely a social in natureas world top most technologies and expertise has so far failed to produce anappropriate medical response to the virus. Social distancing essentially abiological impact has been so far the only effective means to curb the wildfire spread of highly contagious Corona virus.
When the world is trying to mitigate the Covid-19 effects onlife and health through social distancing and lockdown, the act has farreaching consequences on the economy. Second round effects of PandemicCovid-19 are already in place. Except few essential supplies, there is acomplete halt to the world economy. Investors and traders across the globe haveshed the wealth worth trillions of dollars as stock markets like New York StockExchange, Nasdaq, Japan Exchange and many more have dived by more than 30%making the crisis severe than 2009 recession. On BSE India alone investorshave lost more than Rupees one lakh fifty thousand crores to the ongoingvolatility of the markets. Sparked by the looming crisis, the panic Buy andSell, out of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and FOLE (Fear of Losing Everything),the stock markets are witnessing the complete chaos and uncertainty. With abreakdown of supply chain and reverse migration the manufacturing sector likeAutomobile, Iron & Steel, Cements etc have been rendered almost defunct.Hospitality sector which accounts for the worlds 10% GDP has gone into thelimbo. With most transport being off the roads, Consumption of energy and fuelresources has receded drastically. India the world’s second most populouscountry and third major buyer of the oil has shown a 65% decrease in daily oilconsumption compared to the pre lockdown times. Agricultural sectorwhich forms a backbone of any economy is facing a shortage of fertilizers,Pesticides, and basic agrarian activity due to the lack of labour created bymass reverse migration of daily workers. Economy has been badly hit as bothsupply and demand barring few essentials have come to square one. As theGovernments and people are grappling with the immediate effects, ironically theugly side of the Pandemic is yet to come.
Third round effects of Pandemic Covid19 could be morealarming and barbaric. Though governments across the ideologies have adoptedmore humane and responsive measures to mitigate the sufferings of common massesand business communities as well by injecting a sizable portion of wealthreserves into the markets to keep the economy afloat, yet the magnitude ofPandemic fallout in terms of unemployment, Poverty elevation and erosion ofwealth would be very high. Post lockdown, the loss of jobs may surface as amajor problem across the continents. Tourism and Hospitality industryencompassing almost 266 million jobs is already witnessing the prior shocks.British Airways has already sent its 22,000 staff on a compulsory No Pay leave.With its entire fleet grounded, Indian aviation sector is already facing anuphill task to feed the salary accounts of its staff. The condition ofunorganized sector has already sounded alarming bells. In developing economieslike India, daily workers and labourers working in unorganized sector mayemerge as worst sufferers. Coupled with the Low Demand Low Supply, Reversedmigration and supply chain breakdown closure of small scale industries willtell upon both the micro as well as macro sectors of the economy resulting inlarge scale unemployment, rise in poverty and negative growth rate- a situationwhich could send the already recessed world economy into jitters, therebyincreasing an Uphill schedule for the governments already facing the heat atthe hands of so far uncontrollable virus.
Amidst the chaos and bewilderment caused out of Covid19, Oneof the possible 4th round effect is that the Post Pandemicworld will see nations across the globe investing in theMedicine, Health and the related research. Pharmaceutical industry is alreadygearing up for the mega revival. Many companies used to manufacture automobilesare already in producing medical equipment like ventilators, PPEs andother surgical items. World which used to spend aggressively on Defense andsecurity will be compelled to revisit its strategy. At least for few earlyPost Pandemic years, the rise of Health sector amidst the global recession isevident which may altogether turn round the economic tables around the globeand pave the way in grooming likely a new economic order……..