A resounding election victory with the largest mandate givento Narendra Modi has once again opened the possibility of changing the outlookof India on international system. This is the first time in four decades that agovernment has been elected consecutively for the second time with more numberof seats and a larger vote share than earlier. What does this mean for India inparticular and international system in general?
Now that the elections are over, the government without muchpomp and show should brace for the herculean economic and foreign policychallenges ahead.
What is happening?
The international political system is undergoing atremendous change infested with trade wars, possible nuclear war, changingregional security and economic architecture, armed conflicts, economic andsocial disparity, looming peace processes and so on.
The United States under the Trump administration ischallenging the very fundamentals of economic globalisation. The conflict overtrade with China has fallouts for the world economy. The US banning of Huaweion alleged espionage charges, trade and tariff war with China, renewedsanctions on Iran following its withdrawal from Joint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPOA) last year and finally sending aircraft carrier US AbrahamLincoln strike group to the Persian Gulf to counter an alleged threat from Iranare leading to uncertainties.
China’s growing footprints are hard to ignore in thechanging economic and security architecture in regions such as theIndo-Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Gulf. Through its ambitious Belt RoadInitiative (BRI) project and linking it to various other bilateral and jointprojects such as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China is makingdeep inroads into the region challenging other regional powers.
The armed conflicts in Syria where the country’s futureremains bleak without any resolution in the near future and the war in Yemen,where Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners are up against Iranian-backedHouthi rebels, have pushed the Middle Eastern region into a humanitariandisaster.
The Israel-Palestine peace process is at a stalemate interms of willingness from the part of the Israeli government to reach apossible two-state solution. The Afghan peace process remains another crucialissue that needs to be reached to end the sufferings of Afghans.
Where does India stand?
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi braces for his second term,there is a need for a strong leadership and diplomatic dexterity from thegovernment to confront a number of challenges on foreign policy front asmentioned above. PM Modi has given a new impetus to India’s foreign policy inhis first term. From his “Hug Diplomacy” to Chai pe Charcha and developing apersonalised relationship with the world leaders have provided India withtangible dividends in the defence and economic sectors. As soon as it hadbecome clear that Modi has won a historic landslide election victory,congratulatory messages started pouring in from leaders across the world. Thediplomatic engagements and personal equations with the world leaders havehelped him successfully sell India as a brand with a potential market andimmense opportunities for investments.
The challenges arising from trade and technological conflictbetween the US and China have implication for India to secure its place in theglobal economy. In addition to that, United States’ lifting of waiver on Indiabuying oil from Iran has led to energy security problems for India. Thesecurity and defence cooperation between India and US experienced robustness inthe first term and will continue to remain strong. However, on trade front, thewithdrawal of Generalized Systems of Preferences (GSP) treatment to India andnegotiations on increased import duties on Indian steel and aluminum remainunresolved. It is the economic dimension that needs serious work to resolve theoutstanding issues.
The clouds of war looming over the Persian Gulf need a direattention. The ongoing accusations and counter-accusations between Iran and theUS have led to security threat not only to the region but also to India’sinterests. The Chabahar port developed by India for its alternate access tolandlocked Afghanistan and countries of Central Asia remains central to itsstrategic interests.
With the US withdrawal from JCPOA last year, famously knownas ‘Iran Deal’ reached in 2015, renewed sanctions were put on Iran to crippleits economy, and sending a fleet of war ships and aircraft carrier into thePersian Gulf has led to the possibility of potential conflict between the USand Iran. The onus for securing its energy needs rests solely on India and itcan play the role of a mediator in diffusing the crisis.
On the other hand, the relations with the Gulf CooperationCouncil (GCC) have to be strengthened as it homes India’s 8 million diaspora, asignificant contributor to the Indian economy. The Saudi-Iran politicaldynamics needs more careful de-hyphenation. The fallout of their conflict cancompromise India’s energy interests in the region.
China’s expanding footprints in India’s neighbourhood cannotbe ignored. The strengthening of Sino-Pak axis in the region remains a constantthreat to India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Chinese navy’sforays into the Indian Ocean Region remain a matter of security concern forIndia and it has to come up with appropriate measures to secure and safeguardits interests in the region. BRI and CPEC will continue to challenge India’sleadership and growth in the region.
The pressure on Modi in his second term will be to restart adialogue process with Pakistan and insist it to crack down on militantorganisations and terrorist activities and stop waging proxy war against India.
The Afghan peace process involving the US, Taliban andPakistan has led to the possible prospect for India to be left out. Modi facesstiff challenge to overcome the role of Pakistan in the peace process and tocarve out a space for India in the unfolding dynamics in the peace process andregional security.
When it comes to the multilateral trade agreements thatIndia signed during the last five years, none of the FTAs and PTAs has made anyprogress, whether it is with the EU, the US or most importantly RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), where talks are going on for Indiato join it. One of the issues holding back India from joining RCEP is thatthere is a lot of push back from the domestic industry in sectors such asAluminum and Copper. Other main reason for the reluctance to join RCEP isChina. As India already has FTAs with all ASEAN countries, Korea and Japan,joining RCEP will see new entrants such as China, Australia and New Zealand inthe grouping. Also, if India joins RECP there will be zero duty on imports fromChina and that has the potential to crush its indigenous industries. Inaddition to that, the growing trade surplus in China’s favour is yet anotherconcern for India for not joining RCEP.
Conclusion
Modi’s first term focused on articulating a global role forIndia not only as one of the leading players in the international system butalso as the one that can shape global rules. The second term brings lots ofchallenges both in the economic and security domain. It should focus first onIndia’s energy security which is vulnerable to the conflicts in the MiddleEast, second on re-positioning India in the regional security order and finallyto project itself as a global player on the international front. The Modigovernment needs to leverage on the personalised relations it has developedwith the world leaders over the last five years and the soft power to positionIndia at 2020 Global Order. This will involve a long-term strategic thinkingfor strengthening its engagement with the countries in the immediateneighbourhood.
Gazi Hassan is a Senior Research Associate at Centre forPublic Policy Research Kochi, India
Muneeb Yousuf is a Doctoral Candidate at MMAJ Academy ofInternational Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi.