From Migration to Unemployment

India is a labor abundant country, where every year millionsenter into labor force. However, due to lack of adequate jobs in the labormarket hiuge labor force still remain unemployed in the country. Nevertheless,Indian economy is predominantly a rural based economy, where two thirds of populationand 70 percent of workforce is living in rural areas. Nonetheless, earlier theagriculture sector was a major source of livelihood to a vast chunk of ruralpeople, but with the decline in the share of agricultural sector in GrossDomestic Product (GDP), as well as decline in the land holdings among small andmarginal landholders has led to sectorial changes in the country. Hence, amassive flow of labor from rural to urban areas in search of better employmentand livelihood. These migrant labors include self-employed persons, regularworkers, daily wage workers, rickshaw pullers, street vendors, shop owners etc.Therefore, labor migration is a survival strategy of people, especially ofrural people to combat poverty and un-employment. The assessment of the effectsof migration on rural areas has remained relevant, since migration acts as acatalyst in the transformation process of not only the destiny of individualmigrants, but also the conditions of family members left behind, localcommunities, and the wider sending regions.

However, with this global health crises of Covid 19 bulk ofmigratory labor has shifted back from urban areas to their native places, whichled to the unemployment of millions of labors in the country. Narendra Modi hasannounced 21 days of lock down in the country, in order to protect the citizensfrom the spread of Covid-19 disease. However, the coin has two sides. One,lockdown will protect the entire country from spreading Covid-19 epidemic andthe other, the country will face huge consequences with this lockdown. Theeconomic growth rate of country has already declined drastically in the lastyear. However, with this economic shutdown, India’s growth rate will declinefurther and there are predictions that the growth rate in this quarter willfall to zero or even will go negative. The lockdown will create huge jobdestruction in many sectors and also will lead to industrial sickness to manyindustrial units. Further, the shift of migratory labors from labor market willcreate sectorial disturbances and jobs will get skewed from sector to sector inIndia. Moreover, this lockdown will hit hard the earnings of daily wageworkers, who are working for subsistence wage rates and will push them furtherinto poverty and misery. Apart from this, the Rabi season is at its peak, theRabi crops are ready for harvesting. However, due to this Covid-19 crisis, theagricultural labors are unable to work in the fields, and are remainingunemployed. This will damage the crops and will further lead to food crisis inthe country. Nonetheless, as per International Labor Organization (ILO), theeconomic and labor crisis created with this Covid-19 pandemic could increaseglobal unemployment by almost 25 million. However, in case of India there areexpectations, that around 400 million people, who are working in the informalsector are at risk of falling into poverty and 195 million will lose their jobsin the second quarter of this year. Underemployment is also expected toincrease at a large scale, jobs crisis could increase inequalities in thecountry. Further, starvation and hunger will lead to many suicides and deathsof poor workers and other people, because still yet a vast chunk of labors,which includes daily wage workers, rickshaw pullers, rag pickers, slumsdwellers etc. are living in below poverty line, who are be unable to meet withdaily food requirements, and will die with hunger and starvation. Therefore,taking Covid-19 only a health crises is not accurate to say or what we can sayis that Covid -19 is no longer only a global health crisis, but it has becomean economic crises, as well as labor market crises of both developed anddeveloping countries of the world. However, the developed countries may faceits negative impact only in short run, while developing countries particularlyIndia which is having surplus labor force will face its consequences on longrun too.

   

Suhail Ahmad Bhat is Doctoral Fellow in Economics at Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar (a Central) University Lucknow

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