The Lok Sabha will receive Modi-lead NDA candidates to beatthe numbers of majority of 272 needed out of 542. Thus predicts a consensus ofexit polls. The various polls havedivergence in predictions especially in large constituencies like UP andBengal. The exit poll results givenout by NDTV forecast on the back of’Poll of Polls’ to get as near to truth as possible for the simple reason thatthere can be a vast variance in the methodology used to collect the data thatcan be relied upon with confidence. Pollis at best an average by eliminating margins or error and each firm that usethe system prides in their past performance and the ratings in accuracy. The subject of polling needs to be understoodin order not to dismiss the forecast published in advance as untrustworthy. It is worth a look at the ways information isscanned from the votes pooled at polling stations.
In India one method of a voter approaching a polling boothis required to get a serial number from a register. The register has his details and a serialnumber. This is offered by a volunteerin a kiosk maintained by different political parties. They have a sign outside e.g. Congress or BJPor AAP and their big sign like a Hand, Bicycle and flags displayed. People will approach their choice desk toobtain the serial number. The numberthen enables them to go inside and cast their vote either in a box or press abutton of their choice in the machine. This may give the Pollsters watching nearby some indication. The voters could get the serial number fromany kiosk but their mind takes them to their choice where they have clear signsof their party displayed.
We cannot dismiss Polling as trivial because it is accuratesocial science with tenets of sample size. One of the other methodologies used is by telephones. In this survey the target samples are basedon demographic and psychological information of the area and the voters. A ‘Random Digital Dialing ‘system isused. It works by selecting a districtand use the area code and phone numbers with random last four digits. They approachpeople with a set of predetermined questions. This method is also used by fraudsters who rob people of huge sums.
In tracking methods information about voting pattern is usedby tracking voting segments and they slot them in various parties. Computers help in making predictions. They help not by dialing cell phones but bysupply of spread sheets because computers are by law not allowed to dialnumbers. Quantum computers are now usedthat eliminate error and eliminate limitations of transistor basedcomputers. There are Polling firms whouse artificial intelligence to interpret information. These devices replace human planning,reasoning, problem solving, and manipulation social intelligence to compileinformation. There is a great deal of cost involved in this exercise if it isdone truthfully and efficiently.
Some hope that the polls now published giving BJP a clearrun for victory are fallacious and the final counting will dismiss thepredictions like it did in the last few times. As an example in 2009 election a hung parliament was predicted in pollsurveys. The pollsters had help incompiling their data on the background of knowledge of anti-incumbency factorthat creeps in after a period of governance, the family rule factor, and data theycollected. It proved wrong and congresswon with a clear majority. The exitpolls of this election are a concern with the secularist political groups andthey are hoping the last performance of exit polls will be repeated and BJPwill not get the majority to form government. I have to stake a pessimist view and concur with pollsters on thehypothesis that in the past elections it was eyeball to eyeball (Lex Tallionis)contest between Congress and BJP. Thistime there is BJP vs. Alliance, based on ideology of Fascism and Secularismthat divides people very sharply. TheCongress has ebbed its ‘Might’ factor, the diluted diversity and all itssacrificial family history faded in memory. The other parties in alliance have a regional character and stand withtheir weight in their terrain of influence and not in places where the Congressparty stands alone.
Let’s all hope for the best because there are manyexpectations from the future government that are crucial to the lives andliving of people.