Iran-US war threat

Recent military build up in the Gulf and the growingconfrontation between Iran and US is indicative of another catastrophe in theArab world. More detrimental to those countries which are bordering Iran andthat includes Pakistan. This country has not yet outweighed the burdens of thevolatile situation of Afghan war which has drained its economy, risked itssecurity and isolated it from the rest of the world.

Iran has been the part of the “Axis of evil” alongwith Syria since many decades, labelled as the “area of conflict” inthe American strategic policy.

   

Pahlavi rule dealt with it diplomatically but Islamicrevolution of Imam Kamoneni did not go well with the West and brought newexternal challenges including the fragile peace and harmony in the country. Itled to serious rift between moderates and conservatives that suited Washingtonand other Western powers which were yearning to tear it apart internally.

The war between Iran and Iraq provided reprieve to US, whichwas supported by many countries in many ways. The eight year long war betweenthe two neighbours did not only demoralize the Muslim world but proved handy toIsrael to strengthen its roots in Palestine. Saudis according to politicalpundits were accused of helping the war financially through third party ofWestern world.

There was a meagre shift in policy at the time of BarakObama when he lobbied hard to get Iran back on board with the internationalcommunity so as to lesser the risk of any more confrontation in future. Obama’sgesture was disliked by the Israel. US along with other six nations enteredinto a landmark deal on nuclear programme of Iran resulting into lifting ofeconomic sanctions which had virtually crippled the Gulf country by decades ofrestrictions. Isolation of Iran started to wear down but Saudis got unnervedand the intentions of US became their main worry.

Meanwhile, the way Iran dealt with Israel and Washington, itraised its stature among the Muslim world and its growing influence among youthraised alarm in those few countries that have been at the mercy of Saudis.

Iran is considered only enemy of Israel, and the onlycountry which Tehran has never compromised with. 

Trump being close to Israel, however, considers Iran as anintelligent enemy, and he would prefer business to war which has a potential toruin both economies. Trump’s redeployment of war machinery in the Gulf seemsmore or less a tough posturing; just make Iran to toe the line of US.

It is not only the Israel that has been suspicious ofIran.  Saudi Royals are more worriedabout its influence and its wider reach in the Arab world. This seems ironical,Iran is considered number one enemy by all three, Israel, America and SaudiArabia. All three want to confine, cripple and punish it. For Israel, annihilationof Iran means end of Palestine issue which is sustained only by Hamas. It is aWestern belief that Hamas is only supported by Iran.

Saudi live under this threat perception that Yemeni Houtisand Muslim Brotherhood (trouble creators in Saudi Peninsula) are aided andarmed by Iran which Iran has denied many times in the past. US sanctions onIran give Saudis a respite and keeps its oil market booming. The Saudi petrodollars go into the US coffers that in return are spend on the demolition of politicaland economic structures starting from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya and Syria.

Iran is not the only country on US radar; Turkey andPakistan are also going through rough patch resulting into the cancellation offew projects.

It is a puzzle for many political analysts what Trump reallywants from Iran.  Iraq policy was openand visible; US openly declared policy of regime change under the pretext ofstockpiling of weapons of mass destruction by Saddam Hussein. That left Baghdaddecimated.

Afghanistan rejected US appeal to hand over Osama and paidhuge price of life and livelihood. Libya’s leader was punished for integratingNorth African Muslim belt and has been left in tatters.  Syria has been destroyed on the meresuspicion of developing nuclear weapons or supporting militantorganisations.  President Basher ul Asadhas remained unchanged but his country has been reduced to shreds. The oldIslamic archival cities from Damascus to Babylon have all been demolished anddefaced.

Iran, in fact, is a democratic country, where free and fairelections are held on time. Yes, the government is under the control ofconservative Ayatollahs, yet, it has a developed system of institutions.Ayatollahs opened its nuclear sites to international atomic energy agency andon the basis of its reports the nuclear agreement with six powers pledging notto develop nuclear armament became a reality. The agreement was soon discardedby Trump, due to which the animosities have taken a new turn since then.

Trump, being business tycoon, might not go as far as wagingwar against Iran but his security advisor John Bolton and the secretary ofstate, Mike pompeo is said to be pushing him to another serious confrontationin the Middle East at the behest of Israel. Recently, Mike Pompeo has invitedIran for talks again which is according to analysts “Pompeo has soften hisstance after Iran threatened US of taking strong action against its bullyingtactics”. Like Ayatollah khamanei said, if US starts war, it has to facedefeat because Iran is quite different from Iraq. He said, “This couldresult in being the mother of all wars”.

Iran has until now played very cool and calculated which inno way has any desire to intensify the complex situation in the middle East atthis stage when “deep state” policies are intending to split Muslimsinto sections and  tough  sanctions are imposed to break the economy ofoil rich countries.

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