The worsening of China-US relations will have a global effect. No country will remain unaffected. This should naturally be a cause of worry for India, too. Within, the country, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh cannot escape consequences of the new cold war. This cold war is different, it is not based on the ideological pursuits beyond borders in the age when the technology was still in infancy as compared to today’s world.
The United States and China have spoken in different languages about the pandemic that originated in China. It would have been better for the two most powerful nations to lead the world jointly in fight against the virus. Pinning down China on pandemic could be a global strategy led by the western world to isolate China, but that is not going to help. No nation, and that too, of the size of China, and its technological and economic power, cannot be isolated. It has its own allies and there are many global issues which cannot be resolved without its help and assistance. North Korea, a hermit nation, cannot be tamed without the help of Beijing. Now China has started building a next level of relationship with Iran. Its investment in Africa is unmatched .
Jammu and Kashmir should be watchful. When the Chinese troops intruded the Indian territory in Ladakh, the US first offered mediation before supporting India against China. That is how the big powers play their games. The turn of events in Ladakh did not keep Jammu and Kashmir unaffected. The break up of the erstwhile state’s geography into the two union territories announced in August last year and brought into effect on October 31, 2019, has not separated them in terms of natural geography. History can be rewritten, but the geographical features remain unchanged, even if they are politically separated from each other.
In the summer of 1999 when Kargil war was going on in the Himalayas, tourists had fled the Valley. Kargil was 210 Kms from Srinagar and there were not even traces of actual war in Kashmir. An attempt was made to separate the Valley’s conditions of peace from the war zone of Kargil. That proved to be an exercise in futility because everything happening in Kargil was having its direct impact on the rest of the nation, particularly Kashmir. Kashmir’s stakes in tourism and export of fruit were affected adversely as the military convoys went up and, came down with troops and machinery. The highways were clogged with military convoys. The Indian troops were also on high alert in many sectors along the LoC in Kashmir and Jammu region, a sort of extension of the dynamics of war playing out on Kargil heights.
Although there was no war in Ladakh, even after the violent clashes in Galwan Valley where 20 Indian soldiers died in a brutal fight, yet Kashmir could not stay aloof from the consequences of the face-off between Chinese and Indian troops. Its economy already shattered by the corona virus suffered a further dent with the news of war-like situation in the neighbourhood – Ladakh.
The real danger is that when the US and China start raising the Ladakh situation in their diplomatic barbs at each other, they will talk about the rest of the region as well. Therefore, any step by India showing any tilt in this emerging cold war will have its own impact. There is a situation India is seeking to resolve it through dialogue, through diplomatic channels, and it should stick to this methodology only. Indeed, the territory is involved , but when the back up of the arguments with facts is strong, the victory drops into the lap of the right people. India has strong points to forward, and tell China that the situation is because of PLA actions, and that is a fact, so therefore it is the responsibility of Beijing to take the corrective measures. India is a powerful nation and it should handle the matters on its own without allowing any other country to intervene directly or indirectly.