Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited the leaders ofBIMSTEC—Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand—and thePresident of Kyrgyzstan and the Mauritius Prime Minister to his oath-takingceremony on May 30. In doing so he shifted focus from SAARC whose leadersformed the invited core for his first swearing in on May 26, 2014. However, asNepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are members of both organisations andas Mauritius was also invited in 2014 there were elements of continuity andchange in specific guest countries.
Modi emphasised the importance of BIMSTEC during his firstterm. He invited its leaders to the BRICS summit held in Goa in October 2016.Last year he attended the BIMSTEC summit in Kathmandu and spoke eloquently ofenhanced trade, economic, transport, digital and people-to-people connectivitybetween its member states. He underlined his belief that no country canprogress alone in an interdependent world. (This writer covered BIMSTEC and theKathmandu summit in these columns on September 8, 2018). There was thus a backgroundand logic to Modi’s BIMSTEC focus in his oath-taking invitation exercise. Manyobservers have, however asserted, that this was only a means to leaving outPakistan without directly snubbing it.
The Invitation to the Kyrgyzstan President is his capacityas the current chair of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) constitutesa significant outreach. The organisation has China, Russia, four Central Asiancountries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan—and Indian andPakistan as members. India (and Pakistan) were accorded full membership statusin 2017 though India began taking an interest in SCO since June 2005.
The genesis of SCO goes back to the end of the Cold War andthe collapse of the USSR in 1991. As the sole super power the US became activein Central Asia, a development that threatened both Russian and Chineseinterests. These two states along with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan andKazakhstan—Uzbekistan joined later—joined hands in 1996 to undertake securitycooperation. The real Chinese and Russian purpose was to keep the US at bay.That basic objective has not changed.
The SCO took formal shape in 2001 at Heads of States level.It assumed a trans-regional though contiguous countries structure and put inplace its full organisational, functional and activities norms and systems. Italso set up a secretariat in Beijing. As China grew in global stature andsought to build greater connectivity with the Central Asian region itsinfluence in the SCO increased though in the Central Asian States the role ofRussia remains strong because of the old Soviet days-links.
India has always desired the development of close ties withthe Central Asian States. They have reciprocated this desire but the absence ofconnectivity has been an obstacle. The Kyrgyz outreach is therefore, at onelevel, a continuation of that process. From another perspective it shows thatIndia is attaching importance and wants to participate more fully in anorganisation which seeks to balance US and western influences in the centralAsian region. It is early days to assess if in his second term Modi will wish tochart a more balanced approach between the global powers and enhance engagementwith all.
An interesting aspect of the Kyrgyz outreach is that Modiwill be attending an SCO summit is Bishkek in mid-June. One of SCO’s objectivesis to reduce confrontations between its members. It will be respectful ofIndia’s wishes not to intervene in its bilateral ties with third countries,including SCO members themselves but will hints be dropped? This is in thecontext of Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan who will also participate in thesummit.
Mauritius occupies a special place in Indian foreign policysince the days of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. People of Indian origin fromthe Hindi speaking areas, mainly descendants of indentured labour who weretaken there to work on the sugar-cane plantations, are in a majority. Indiancommunity leaders looked up to India for advice during their negotiations withthe British during the run-up to the country’s independence. Those links havenever really weakened though, naturally, Mauritius charts its own course inmaking its domestic and external choices.
Mauritius occupies a strategic location which is importantfor Indian security interests in the Indian Ocean. China is seeking to rapidlyaugment its strength in these waters and has developed economic linkages withMauritius. India will have to be mindful of Chinese activities and thereforethe continuation of close Indo-Mauritius ties is in the mutual interest of bothcountries.
An interesting aspect of Modi’s guest list is that theinvited countries cover many points of the compass: Nepal and Bhutan are to thenorth, Kyrgyzstan to the north-west, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand to theeast and Sri Lanka and Mauritius to the south. This illustrates that as India’sglobal role expands it will have interests all over. This will naturally not bein equal measure for some areas will be more significant than others. However,it cannot now neglect any region.
To address its global interests India’s diplomatic machinerywill need to be augmented. The foreignservice has served the country well but it needs to be expanded. There has beensome work in this direction but it has not been sufficient. Innovative thinkingbeyond the confines of our inherited colonial bureaucratic structures has to beundertaken. But that applies not only to the foreign service; the domesticcivil services need a fundamental overhauling too.