After every night there is a new dawn with new hopes. The historic win of Joe Bidden in American elections of 2020 against a racist, xenophobic, anti-Muslim, supremacist leader on one side, the disengagement of armies of India and China at LAC; the consensus reached out between DGMOs of India and Pakistan to respect the 2003 Cease-Fire Agreement; the continued efforts to bring peace in Afghanistan through dialogue with Taliban leadership; and almost halfway battle won against the pandemic on the other, signal new dawn with new hopes in this part of the world.
Biden is reversing many controversial orders of his predecessor. America is now reverting Muslim Ban; allowing the increase in immigrants; rejoining WHO and Climate change agreements; giving peace a chance in the Middle East by, ending tensions in Yemen and re-engaging with Iran on the nuclear deal, etc. He is also proactively viewing the developments in Asia. Though China is still enemy number one but revisiting bilateral relations with China is prioritized. Many of the measures taken by the Trump administration against China are being revisited and reversed. The new government in the USA has been also closely engaging with leaders in South Asian states for bringing calm and normalization in their bilateral relations. This could be reflected through the White House press brief on the joint statement made by DGMOs of India and Pakistan recently. It said, ‘The United States welcomes the joint statement between India and Pakistan that the two countries have agreed to maintain strict observance of a ceasefire along the Line of Control starting on February 25. This is a positive step towards greater peace and stability in South Asia, which is in our shared interest and we encourage both countries to keep building upon this progress’.
Whether the developments on western borders are the result of that pressure is not known or is the result of back-channel diplomacy between the two countries, as speculated, though declined by Moid Yousuf, the special assistant on national security division in Pakistan, or some, on the other hand, would argue that India is de-triangulating itself from the two front war situation by making peace with her neighbors, whatever the reasons, anyway for the larger context this is a welcome step. And any goodwill gesture that is shared by two countries all the way, whether it changes anything on the ground, instantly, however, it brings charm on the faces and happiness in the hearts of people of Jammu and Kashmir. The ceasefire at the border had become the need of the hour given the record of the past few years’ intensity in such violation. As per reports ‘In 2018, more than 2,000 ceasefire violations were recorded. The number of ceasefire violations increased to over 3,400 in 2019 and over 5,000 in 2020. A total of over 14,000 ceasefire violations have taken place since 2006′ (India today 26 February 2020). The ceasefire violations are not only about the exchange of heavy shells and mortars across borders, it also brings fatalities, insecurities, derailment of normal activity in this area plus fear psychosis. The ceasefire agreement that was announced by Pakistan and reciprocated by India in 2003, had brought calm at the boarders, too hot at that time, had also given relief to the people living in the nearby village across borders for quite some time until the situation started deteriorating by 2009 and continued since then.
Similarly, right now the disengagement of armies at LAC on the eastern side and reverting to Ceasefire on the Western front, has generated new hopes of relief among the people, not those living across the borders but also for the people living in the South Asian region as a whole. The people living in SAARC-nations are kept hostage to bilateral disputes and differences between two of its giant players. Since 2016, SAARC is almost dead, the 19th summit which was scheduled in Pakistan in 2019, could not be held due to the Uri attack that year, and then the opportunity provided by the pandemic in 2020 was swallowed again by the controversies caused by bilateral disputes. However, the recent gestures, where the Indian government gave go-ahead to Pakistani PM to use its air space (though the other side had not allowed using its Air space when PM Modi was scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia in 2019) on his visit to Colombo and soon, the announcement of Ceasefire at borders, etc., generated hope of spillover of this process to other areas as well including the resurgence of SAARC. There are speculations that the 20th summit of SAARC which is scheduled in Pakistan will be attended by India. The resurgence of this grouping is very crucial at this point for all the SAARC nations given the damage caused by the pandemic to their economies. A joint response to boost their stagnant economies is a must. The joint health program to deal with the pandemic which was initiated earlier could find stimuli for being taken forward. Notwithstanding this, it is too early to speculate such a fast-changing atmosphere in the SAARC region to break a stalemate that has been there since 2016.
Restoration of bilateral LOC trade, Cricket, People to People contacts, etc., that should or might follow, again is difficult and too early to predict. The bilateral trade is in shambles. According to Afaq Hussain and Nikita Singla of Bureau of Research on Industry and Economic Fundamentals (BRIEF), a New Delhi-based research and policy think tank, around 9000 families in Punjab, 600 traders, and 300 laborers in J&K suffer heavily due to political strains between the two countries. Similarly, cricket is on the back burner for more than one decade now. Now when peace is given a chance at borders it enhances mutual trust and makes a conducive environment for development on the ground, there is a hope of progress in several other directions. This was also reiterated by Major General V.M. Krishnan, General Officer Commanding, Kupwara-based 28-Infantry Division who while interacting with the journalist said, ‘If peace and tranquility hold on the LoC, it builds on the mutual trust and confidence between the two nations’ (GK, 28-02-21).
Shabeer Ahmad Parey is an assistant professor of political science at HKM, Degree College Bandipora.