Part II | Power Shortage in J&K: The Mysterious 20%

The peak demand in J&K touched an all time high of 3400MW in Mar 20. This means a 50% increase in peak demand in the last 10 years.The demand has seen a particularly steep increase in the last three to fouryears – there has been an annual increase of about 10% in demand in the lastthree year. This average annual increase is exceptionally high compared toannual increase percentage used in energy planning to forecast peak demand.

The peak met in Mar 20 was 20% short of the peak demand inthe month. When one looks back at the figures of the monthly demand met for thepast several years one cannot but observe that in each of these months also thepeak met has been exactly maintained at the same level, i.e. 20% less than peakdemand. Whether the peak demand has been as low as 2500 MW or as high as3400MW, the same shortfall percentage has been consistently and religiouslymaintained across these years. In plain terms it means that our peak met haskept pace with the peak demand and it has increased at exactly the same rate asthe peak demand while maintaining the same gap or shortfall percentage.

   

This shortfall has been maintained irrespective of theseason given the generation from hydro power projects varies vastly between themonths. As an example of this seasonal variation in energy generation, themonthly generation from our hydro power plants (both JKSPDC and NHPC together)in lean season (Nov to Feb) is a meagre 60 crore units which increases, morethan three and a half times, to nearly 220 crore per month during months ofhigh discharge in the rivers (May to Aug) but shortfall of 20% between peakdemand and peak met is maintained across both the periods.

Why exactly same percentage shortfall has been maintainedevery month for the past several years (from Sep 16), despite huge increase inthe demand in these years, is both interesting and intriguing.

From time to time consumers have been fed stories that thetransmission network within the erstwhile state, and in particular in Kashmirvalley, was not adequate to carry our peak demand and that the government wasaugmenting the transmission circuits to cater to the demand. While one is notdisputing that part of the narrative, the question that comes to one’s mind isthat if the existing transmission network could safely carry 2750 MW load, i.e.the peak met in Mar 20, why was not this figure of the peak met not maintainedthroughout the whole year.

Let us look in a little more detail at any one year, say2019-20. If peak met in Mar 20 had been maintained throughout the said year,there would have been a few months without any load shedding at all, somemonths with load shedding of less than 5% and there would have been only 4months which would have witnessed shortfall in excess of 10%. The overallshortfall for the year would still have been a fraction of the currentshortfall.

One wonders how and why the percentage shortfall is beingmaintained at exactly 20%, month on month and year on year for the past severalyears. In whose interest, and it would be good to know what that interest is,is it to keep us energy starved.

One explanation that comes to one’s mind is connected withour huge energy losses – whether commercial, transmission or distribution.Since J&K has the distinction of having the highest transmission, distributionand commercial losses in India, it might be that the government has consciouslydecided that the peak met should be restricted and that it should never matchthe peak demand so as to minimize its losses. Otherwise, there does not seemsto be any explanation for this mysterious 20% figure.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

12 + twelve =