Racing against time

COVID-19 is more serious than the seasonal flu in severalways. Unlike the flu, there is no known treatment or vaccine for COVID-19. Theoverall case fatality rate may be 1 to 2 per cent, which is 10 to 20 timeshigher than that of flu. We may also be more susceptible to the NovelCoronavirus because humans have never encountered it before. A virus is abiological agent that reproduces inside the cells of living hosts. When infectedby a virus a host cell is forced to quickly produce thousands of identicalcopies of the original virus. In fact, viruses pass into the environment fromclinically ill or carrier hosts. The evolutionary history of viruses representa fascinating precursors of life as we know it. As a scientist of agricultureand climate change, we know that viruses are quite diverse. We can becomeinfected with a small number of virus particles and by inhaling particlesexpelled when another person coughs, for instance and then become sick forseveral days.

While declaring COVID-19 as pandemic WHO Director Generalnoted “Pandemic is not a word to be used lightly or carelessly”. He justifiedits use because of the “alarming levels” of its spread and severity. TheDirector General made two other points. In fact this pandemic is the firstpandemic “caused by a Coronavirus” , earlier Coronavirus epidemic such as SARSthat led to 800 deaths in many countries did not ‘qualify’ as pandemic. When anew disease emerges, it’s crucial to track its spread. That means more thanjust gleaning the numbers of new cases. Collecting genetic information about avirus can help public health officials understand how it arrived in theircountry and take steps to slow its advance. It can also help researchersmonitor the virus for mutation that might make diagnostic tests less effective.But efforts to identify and contain such outbreaks are hindered inresource-poor settings.

   

The Coronavirus was first dismissed as a small cloud in anotherwise clear economic sky. Scientists estimate there are 10 million timesmore viruses than the number of stars in the universe. Most of them are foundin oceans. In fact, viruses are capable of infecting all type of life forms,from humans to bacteria. Some viruses can prove difficult to treat becauseviruses are sheltered by our own cells. That sounds unfortunate.

India imposed a Junta curfew on March 22nd..  Days after came the announcement about acomplete lock down for 21 days. The PM further asserts that social distancingis the only way to fight against the Coronavirus. In his second address to thenation, Modi made a hand folded appeal to the country-men not to cross the”lakshman rekha” of their homes in the next three weeks.

Even countries like Italy, France and the US with besthealth infrastructure have been left helpless due to the spread of the diseasedespite their relentless efforts, he said, emphasising the gravity of thesituation. Some people suffer from this wrong mindset that only infectedpersons need to follow social distancing; such a view can endanger lives ofothers and their families.

Social distancing will be the key phrase in the days andweeks to come. The term simply refers to avoiding close contact with otherindividuals in order to avoid catching the virus yourself and to avoid passingit on. Social distancing is currently the most important factor to control theCOVID-19 outbreak, and therefore, critical. Many factors contribute to theso-called reproductive number of the new Coronovirus, which describes roughlyhow many people an infected individual will go on to infect. Currently,estimates of the reproductive number of the novel Coronovirus range from 1.4 to6.5 with an average of 3.3. The higher the reproductive number, the faster it willspread. Factors that affect the reproductive number include:

  • How inherently contagious the virus is
  • How susceptible people are to infection
  • The number of contacts between people
  • The duration of those contacts.

As a matter of fact, scientists race against time to defeatthe deadly respiratory virus impacting communities around the world. Here,people need to understand that this is really, and indeed really a seriouspandemic. It is up to you to not get infected and to not infect others. Preventinfection by staying in your house, washing your hands, avoiding people who aresick. Society needs your help. People’s participation is very important in thisdrill. I realise, the advice is difficult to do, but it’s life-saving, notnecessarily for you if you are 30 years old and healthy, but may be for yourgrandparents. The longer the virus lasts and the farther it spreads, the biggerthe impact on life. Hopefully, history repeats itself and like other epidemicsthis one too peaks and passes; quickly – Inshallaha.

Shah Masood  is a Senior Scientist at the College of Agriculture, SKUAST-Kashmir, Wadura Sopore.

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