Recently national general secretary of Bharatiya Janata Party Ram Madhav said that BJP along with “some friends” would form a “stable government” in Jammu and Kashmir after the fresh assembly elections are held in the state.
His assertion that BJP would join hands with some of its friends left many people guessing. One question which everyone wanted Madhav to answer: who are the friends he is talking about? Peoples Democratic Party led by Mehbooba Mufti is already paying a heavy price for making friends with the BJP. The PDP stands cornered, but has nowhere to go. Neither it can approach New Delhi nor can it go back to its constituency. PDP had not even dreamt that its coalition ally and its “good friend” BJP would backstab the party, which put everything at stake to embrace the saffron party. BJP has lost a very “good friend” in Kashmir and it looks impossible that the “good friend” would ever again try to enter into any sort of agreement with BJP at least for a few more years till people forget the past and start buying new slogans.
Ram Madhav’s assertion evoked a sharp reaction from the National Conference vice-president Omar Abdullah. He made it amply clear that NC would never join hands with the BJP to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir.
Two major mainstream parties of Kashmir which can play a decisive role in any sort of the government formation are unlikely to befriend BJP. So the only option which the BJP can count upon is the emergence of Third Front in Kashmir. If a strong Third Front emerges and makes inroads into the citadels of the NC and PDP it can tilt the political equation in J&K.
It would be interesting to see who all would join the Third Front and who will be its leader, and what it would sell to the people of Kashmir. One thing is for sure that even if the Third Front emerges it cannot sell aligning with BJP as its future plan.
Till date Election Commission of India has not taken any decision about when the assembly polls will be held in Jammu and Kashmir. The recent meeting of the political parties chaired by the Chief Electoral Officer Shailendra Kumar just revolved around the forthcoming parliamentary polls and there was no mention of the assembly polls. One thing seems evident that there is a bleak possibility about parliamentary and assembly polls being held together in Jammu and Kashmir.
If the assembly elections are held after the new dispensation is put in place in New Delhi then assembly elections in J&K would be a different ball game. If BJP returns to power at Centre it would ensure that the “friends”, which Ram Madhav did not identify, are strengthened so that BJP could once again rule Jammu and Kashmir through its “friends.”
If the BJP fails to regain power and the Congress led grand alliance wins, the political equation in J&K would tilt in the favour of National Conference and PDP as the Congress led government would try its best to keep BJP at bay in Jammu and Kashmir.
Ram Madhav and his friends would have to wait till the things become more visible and clear. Recent developments have made one thing crystal clear, that mainstream politicians in Jammu and Kashmir are completely dependent upon the people sitting in New Delhi. Ram Madhav’s assertion that BJP along with “some friends” would form a stable government in Jammu and Kashmir cannot be just brushed aside as a mere rhetoric. He has hinted that if BJP returns to power at the Centre the backup plan for Jammu and Kashmir is ready and people should not get carried away by the slogans being raised by the local politicians.
Mainstream politicians in Jammu and Kashmir are aware about the fact that power centre lies in Delhi and they cannot keep on bashing the BJP forever.
At this point of time NC, PDP and others are all emitting fire and are blaming BJP for the mess in Jammu and Kashmir. They are doing so to tell the people that they share a “common sentiment” but someone needs to tell them that people of Kashmir during all these years have learnt all the tricks and understand everything. They know it very well that if BJP conquers Delhi “friends” of Ram Madhav would appear on the scene and would help him form the government in J&K again.
Javaid Malik is Senior Editor Greater Kashmir
malikjavaid123@gmail.com