History repeats itself first as a tragedy, then as a farce,argued Marx quoting fellow German philosopher Hegel. This is what has been happening in the MiddleEast over the past few weeks with the same dubious cast of characters.
It beggars belief that after the catastrophes that the USvisited on Afghanistan and Iraq under various pretexts, it still has theappetite and audacity to go after yet another Muslim country with the self-samebunch of excuses.
What is even more absurd is the deafening silence of theworld community to the unfolding disaster even as it is sleepwalked into yetanother civilizational conflict in the world’s most volatile region. All in thename of peace and progress and protecting the Western ideals and interests ofcourse.
Interestingly, the current leader of the free world, whovehemently opposed the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and slammed hispredecessors for repeatedly taking America to phoney wars in the Middle East,sees no irony in the way he is being manipulated and marched, eyes wide shut,into his own minefield in Iran by the war lobby and the Zionist-Neocongroups.
As Peter Beinart reasons in the Atlantic: “The unlovelytruth is this: Throughout its history, America has attacked countries that didnot threaten it. To carry out such wars, American leaders have contrivedpretexts to justify American aggression. That’s what Donald Trump’sadministration—and especially its national security adviser, John Bolton—isdoing now with Iran.”
The ideological convictions of National Security AdviserJohn Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are hardly a secret. Neither is the baleful influence of Israeland its powerful friends like Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of the President.
A fossil from the Bush era, Bolton has for nearly a decadeand half single-mindedly pushed for taking out Iran.
Last September, after an attack near the US embassy inBaghdad, Bolton warned the Ayatollahs next door: “If you cross us, our alliesor our partners, if you harm our citizens, if you continue to lie, cheat anddeceive, yes, there will indeed be hell to pay. We are watching and we willcome after you.”
And the hawks like him seem to have found a perfectopportunity in the current showdown that began with Trump walking out of thenuclear accord the US under Obama signed with Tehran.
After those mysterious attacks on Saudi and Emirati ships inthe Gulf that were not surprisingly attributed to Iran and its friendlymilitias in the region, Tehran seemed to provide the US with yet anotherperfect excuse when it brought down a US surveillance drone over the troubledStrait of Hormuz last month.
Amid the war of words and claims and counterclaims over thelocation of the drone, an attack on Iran appeared all but imminent. The world waited with bated breath as manynervous Middle Eastern and international airlines diverted their flights toavoid flying over Iran and close to the strategic waterway that regulates muchof the global supply of oil.
Commenting on the drone incident, Prof Beinart cites anumber of instances when the US had similarly lured its potential victims: “In1997, according to former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General HughShelton, a top official in Bill Clinton’s administration suggested that theGeneral lure Saddam Hussein into shooting down a U-2 spy plane over Iraq so theUS would have the “precipitous event” it needed “to go in and take outSaddam.”
In the end, if the US walked back from the brink and chosenot to hit Iran, it was thanks largely to the rare common sense that Trumpsometimes betrays. Explaining thedecision to hold back the very last minute, the President cited the high numberof casualties that his action could have caused. In his ostensible psychosis,Trump demonstrates an uncanny sense of pragmatism that is both perplexing andencouraging.
However, he has been far from reasonable in his blindopposition to the nuclear accord with Iran. He has opposed it tooth and nail,partly because of his Zionist supporters and financiers like casino billionaireSheldon Adelson and partly because of his pathological dislike for his muchloved predecessor.
But whether Trump really wants war or not, he risks,wittingly or unwittingly, sparking one with his dangerous doctrine of “maximumpressure.” First by unilaterally scrapping the nuclear pact and then byimposing several rounds of crippling sanctions on Iran, including on AyatollahKhamenei, Washington is leaving Iran no room to manoeuvre, forcing it intoactions that may be considered provocative. The US sanctions, especially on its vital oil exports, have devastatedan already tottering Iranian economy, causing untold hardship ad suffering toits people.
If Trump had hoped to rein in the regime in Tehran, forcingit to fall in line and beg for mercy, he would have been sorelydisappointed. Indeed, these threats andtactics of bluff and bluster seem to make the Iranians even more defiant andfirm in their resolve to confront the ‘Big Satan’.
This week, Iran announced that it had exceeded the criticallimit on enriching weapons grade uranium set under the 2015 nuclear deal withworld powers, drawing swift rebuke from US and Europe. Trump has been quick toreact warning Iran that it is “playing with fire”.
Indeed, no matter what its justification, by choosing torevive its nuclear programme, Iran may be walking into a trap set by itsenemies. This is what the hawks – andthis administration is full of them – have been waiting for. Indeed, this hasexactly been the plan, in the words of Beinart. Provoke Iran until it providesa pretext for America to strike.
The US has already despatched its warships and thousands ofsoldiers to the region. It is a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, Israel’s military designs on Iran havehardly been a secret. It cannot tolerate another strong and independentmilitary power in the neighbourhood and has repeatedly vowed to take it out,nukes or not.
With tensions running this high and both sides being in thestate of trigger-hair alert, playing dangerous war games in the volatile Gulfwaters that have already witnessed so many disastrous wars, a tiny incidentcould spiral into a full-fledged conflict in no time.
More importantly, if a war between Iran and the US and itsallies does become a reality, it is not going to be limited to the Strait ofHormuz or the Gulf but push the whole region into the flames of war.
Iran is hardly blameless. It has a long history of playing little, petty power games across theregion, from Syria and Iraq to Lebanon and Yemen. Its active support for and intervention onbehalf of the brutal Baathist regime in Syria has helped destroy a beautifulcountry and civilization that had no parallels in the region for its richhistory and culture, formidable institutions and self-reliantinfrastructure. More than half a millioninnocent lives have been wasted. Yemenis another country that has been totally ravaged thanks to the pointless proxywar between Iran and its Arab neighbours.
Both sides refuse to see how their war of attrition andendless bloodletting is not just draining away their precious resources andenergies, not to mention thousands of innocent lives, it is directly helpingtheir common enemy. Without thesenever-ending wars in the Middle East, where would the US military-industrialcomplex and Western manufacturers of arms be? What would they do to sustain their national economies?
Aijaz Zaka Syed is an award-winning journalist and formereditor. Twitter: @AijazZaka