The US-Taliban Peace Deal: What it Means for the World

With the signing of the US-Taliban peace deal for “Bringing Peace toAfghanistan”, the war torn country has hopefully reborn after the forty yearsof conflict. The next to impossible deal was signed by the US and the Talibannegotiators after the intense negotiations of 18 months. The US assignedAfghan-American diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad as the Special Representative forAfghanistan Reconciliation and the Taliban assigned Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradaramong others for the purpose. Baradar is the political head of the Taliban.Khalilzad, an Afghan-American, fluent in Pashto could speak to the Baradar intheir local language many a time and make him feel comfortable. The mistrusthitherto was to be reduced first.

The deal will enable the US and the NATO forces to gradually withdrawtheir troops from Afghanistan, if abided by all the stakeholders. The intenseclashes and the violence almost killed this deal back some time, but the goodprevailed and peace deal was reached and signed on February 29, 2020 at Doha,Qatar.

   

It is pertinent to mention that the agreement for “Bringing Peace toAfghanistan” was signed between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and theUnited States. The Emirate was founded by the Taliban back in September1996,  which isn’t even recognised by theUS and the UN. This in itself is a big shift in the US foreign policy and a bigwin for the Taliban, as it gives them the legitimacy the forces were lackingback in 1996-2001, the period when they were in power and were only recognisedby the Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and the Saudi Arabia. Although theTaliban paid a heavy price for the same.

Full troop withdrawal was the top demand of the Taliban representativesall the times. The agreement fulfils this demand in the way that 8,600 troopswill be withdrawn within 135 days. Simultaneously the number of the coalitionforces will also be brought down-proportionately. The much discussed anddebated deal has paved the way for the full withdrawal of the foreign troops infourteen months. The basis for the full withdrawal will be the commitment fromthe Taliban side, their abiding of the deal in toto will be a must for thetroop withdrawal. Their main commitment to be filled is that none of theirmembers or any other group including Al-Qaida will be allowed to use the Afghansoil against the US and its allies, none will be allowed to threaten thesecurity of the US and its other allies. In consonance with the peaceagreement, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognised by theUnited States as a state will not issue visas, passports or any kind of a legaldocument to those people who in any way pose a threat to the United States andits allies to enter Afghanistan.

Bringing Peace to Afghanistan has also paved the way for the release andexchange of the prisoners, around 5,000 Taliban men and 1,000 prisoners held bythe Taliban will be released by March 10. Again, this is a big success for theTaliban. More than this, the UN and the US sanctions on the members of theIslamic Emirate of Afghanistan or the Taliban are going to be withdrawn inthree months and by the end of August respectively. The removal of thesanctions by the US and the UN will further pave the way for inducting theTaliban towards the mainstream. As the prisoner swap will be completed by March10, the Intra-Afghan dialogue is supposed to start between the Taliban and theAfghan government in Oslo, the capital of Norway.

As the decades long conflict is seeing its end in Afghanistan, the dealraises more questions than it answers, most important among them are, willAfghanistan see the peace as imagined / hoped with this deal, will the peaceprevail, will Afghanistan be free now from the foreign influence andinterventions, is Taliban now the part of the mainstream world, will theirrepresentatives be taking part in the international processes through theUnited Nations. Which will prevail, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan-led by theelected government or the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan-led by the Taliban,the intra-Afghan dialogue between the duo will now decide the next course ofaction towards bringing peace to Afghanistan.

The larger questions in addition to the above are going to be: will othermember countries of the UN follow the US and recognise the Taliban as the legitimatestakeholder of Afghanistan, will the Embassies be maintained in Afghanistan bythe world countries. These questions will remain and only time will have theanswers. Regarding this strategic shift, India has sent its Ambassador to QatarP. Kumaran for attending the final signing ceremony of the deal.

This deal is largely going to be a challenge to the South Asian region asthe foreign intervention is coming to an end and the regional responsibility isgoing to increase. Iran, India, Pakistan, China Central Asian States and Turkey will be definitely looking for anopportunity in the future of Afghanistan. Will Afghanistan be a landmine forany of these countries, if yes, who and how it is going to be. Pakistan isdefinitely going to have a leverage as the Taliban is heavily influenced by it,but will other regional countries allow them, it remains to be seen.

The successful US withdrawal can possibly lure the neighbouring countriesof Afghanistan for playing their proxies in Afghanistan. This will possiblyworsen the situation and invite the chaos once again to the land known as the”Graveyard of Empires”, with which the US negotiations with the Taliban and thesubsequent proposed withdrawal has once again proved that it is easy to enterinto Afghanistan but impossible to retain and rule it. The need of the hour isthe cooperation between all the stakeholders, including the US, the UN, theregional countries and other international organisations. It is only then thepeace will prevail in and around Afghanistan. We can only hope for the deal tobe abided by all and the commitment shown hitherto will be respected for thebetterment of Afghanistan and the region at large.

Dr. Mudassir Fatah is Ph.D. Political Science from Jamia Millia Islamiaand a researcher on the US Intervention in Afghanistan.

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