Over the past nineteen years of the twenty first century,the world is ostensibly moving quite swiftly in an entirely changinggeo-political scenario. The US is fast emerging as the powerful world nationaccosting several challenges and apparently losing its grip gradually on manyinternational issues and the overall control of world nations. The US- NATOalliance is weakening day-after-day particularly on account of America’s Israelhome ward-bound plans and policies, which the European allies perceive to be ofno material implication to them. Britain may be an exception. The EuropeanUnion is at the verge of breaking since Brexit last year. Leaving of EuropeanUnion by the Britain is understood to have created a much deeper fiasco in theEU economic block, where as co-incidentally the Shingai Co-operationOrganization (SCO) is receiving impetus and is increasingly assuming theposition of a world economic block in Asia. Russia’s joining has given it wingsto spread over the Eurasian geo-regional stretch. The SCO has drawn in theworld attention more because it forms the only world economic platform withoutAmerica’s membership. The shaping up of a new world block involving China,Pakistan, Central Asia, Russia, Turkey and North Korea is laden with all capabilityto thwart US-NATO onslaught, economic or military. The Islamic republic of Iranis weighing options, actively to join this block, particularly in the currentsituation where India has called an end to its close ties with her and hasgiven up purchase of oil and gas under American pressure. Iran has feltbetrayed by India on the underway Chahbahar project which she reconsiders nowto hand over to CPEC in Gawadar. The US is on the brink of making exit fromAfghanistan and is seriously engaging Taliban through direct diplomaticchannels, vis-à-vis Pakistan. It has already left war torn Syria. BothAfghanistan and Syria have brought about a big reversal to US –NATO globalmonopoly. Over the past several decades, US had a vigil on the Pak-CentralAsia- Russia in order to prevent this vast geo-political zone from enteringinto an economic union that would potentially baffle the US interests. But thetime changed, so has changed the scenario. The huge area, stretching fromRussia through large Central Asia, Afghanistan (in the making) till Gawadar inPakistan today experiences no obstacle to impede this economic geographicalplatform to be formed. Russia’s cherished dream of access to warm waters atGawadar has proven to catalyze its congenial diplomatic relations withPakistan. Inevitably China nurtures the SCO platform as a Mother factor.India’s paradigm shift from Russia to US has unavoidably benefitted its archrival Pakistan. But, at the same time India has been swift to understand thatdetracting from Russia and China even though being the member of SCO, mightharm her regional interests and that it might benefit Pakistan alone. India hasof late replied in affirmative to Pakistan’s letter for a composite dialogue onmutual issues, so that space for others to meddle is reduced. China and Russiaas a block are believed to have frustrated many of the global policy plannersin the White House. Trade war with China has exposed loopholes in Americanfalling economy. Economic debacles have rendered America the only nation highlyindebted to Japan and China; Japan being an ally would still be manageable. Asof June 2019, federal debt held by the public was16.17 trillion dollars andintra-governmental holdings were 5.86 trillion dollars for a total nationaldebt of 22.03 trillion dollars. It isbelieved that China-Russia duo have a significant political influence on peacedialogue parleys operating between Taliban and the US through Zalm e Khalilzad that eventually pressurized US to involvePakistan in any final settlement of the issue. Progress on the settlement ofKashmir-imbroglio between India and Pakistan, albeit in deadlock presently, tobe influenced in the same manner somewhere in future, under the diplomaticinfluence of China-Russia block, is not something among improbabilities,particularly when India has shown eagerness to befriend China post Docklamstandoff. The much hyped American initiative on Indo-Pacific trade beltstretching from Indian Ocean to Pacific Ocean, a substitute to China’s one beltone road (OBOR) joining CPEC in Gawadar is not seemingly taking off. Analystsbelieve that future success of CPEC may persuade India to join it keeping herown economic vantage in view. However it could happen in actuality when sheresists US pressure that would be likely to surface in the present set ofconditions.
Dr. Muzaffar Shaheen is a professor at SKUAST-K.