A few days before Turkey marked the third anniversary of thefailed July 15, 2016 military coup it began to receive supplies of Russia’sS-400 missile defence system despite the grave objections of the United States.The Trump administration had not only made its opposition to the Turkishdecision publicly known it had more or less said that Turkey will face seriousand direct action for its decision to acquire the missile system. This wasespecially because as a NATO member-state it is a recipient of sophisticated USand Western weapons and their details may get revealed as Turkey proceeded tointegrate the Russian missiles in its defence arrangements.
While, as of now, the US has not announced any action, itsties with Turkey have been going through a turbulent phase for some years. President Tayyip Erdogan’s domestic andforeign policies and actions and US assertive, if erratic, postures havecontributed to bilateral US-Turkey differences. Erdogan is changing thecountry’s direction away from the secular and Euro-centric anchors provided byAtaturk, the father of the modern Turkish state.
Despite some recent electoral reverses Erdogan virtuallyremains Turkey’s unchallenged leader. He has led his AKP party to the pinnacleof power. In the process he has consolidated the socially conservative andreligiously inclined urges of Turkish society which were innately at odds withthe secular, modernist legacy of Ataturk. Fethullah Gulen who lives in exile inthe US and was once Erdogan’s ally in whittling down the Ataturk nationalheritage and is now his bitter foe is the other person to change Turkey’ssocial direction. Between them they have taken Turkey on a path that has veeredoff from that shown by Ataturk.
Significantly, Erdogan has almost completely eliminated thearmy as a political factor in Turkish national life. For more than six decadesthe army claimed to be the protector of Ataturk’s secular legacy. It intervenedpolitically to safeguard his traditions. Erdogan enmeshed it in corruptiontrials, eroding public confidence in the institution. After the failed coup of2016 he has purged a large number of army officers who were accused of beingGulen moles further draining it of politically oriented personnel.
One external factor which has contributed to Turkey’sgrowing conservatism is Europe’s refusal to accept it as part of the EuropeanUnion. Turkey is situated both in Asia and Europe and the historic city ofIstanbul is in both continents. However, despite Turkey’s attempts at meetingEU legal and political requirements the fact is that major European countries,especially France, simply cannot accept a large Muslim country as fully part ofthe European family. Spurned by Europe, Turkey especially under Erdogan’sleadership fell back to its Ottoman roots. It is this orientation that is theunderlying basis of US-Turkish divergences.
Illustrative of Turkey spreading its ‘Ottoman’ wings hasbeen its role in the Syrian civil war and West Asia generally, Central AsianRepublics and its interaction with Russia. Turkey’s primary interest in Syriahas been the prevention of the creation of a Kurdish entity in any manner orform on Syrian territories. As the US has used Kurdish groups against the Assadregime Turkish and American interests have clashed. There were persistentreports of Turkey’s somewhat ambivalent approach to ISIS during the period itheld significant territories in Iraq and Syria. Certainly, this was a testingtime for Turkey which attracted large number of refugees fleeing the civil warand ISIS barbarism.
Turkey has cultural affinities with the Turkic speakingpeoples of Central Asia. The break-up of the Soviet Union and the emergence ofindependent Central Asian Republics provided it with the opportunity to makecultural and political ingress. However, it has only made limited headwaybecause of centuries of Russian rule and that countries continuing influence.In recent years China is seeking the role of a dominant power in the region andthat too is thwarting Turkish ambitions but not entirely. In Afghanistan, forinstance, Turkey’s connections with the Uzbek ethnic group are strong and afactor in the evolution of the country’s northern areas.
The Ottoman empire and Czarist Russia were at odds andduring the cold war Turkey was firmly in the Western camp. However, pastalignments are not holding Erdogan back. Russian President Putin and he havewarmed up to each other. The missile supplies are a sign of this major change.Naturally, the US is very upset and the question is how far will it go. Will ittry to cut Erdogan down to size so that it can firmly avoid the ingress ofmajor Russian influence in the Mediterranean region?
India has largely constrained its relations with Turkeybecause of close Turkey-Pakistan ties. This is the legacy of the time when bothcountries were part of CENTO, an organisation that the US had nurtured tooppose the Soviets. Cooperative ties between Turkish and Pakistani armies havealso made the realisation of the full potential of Indo-Turkish relationsdifficult.
At this stage though India has a great interest in followingwhat the US does with Turkey for its acquiring S 400 missiles. Of course Indiais a not a US NATO ally and has a continuing relationship with Russia in thedefence sector. The US has to take this into account among other factors.
In any event the time has come for greater dialogue betweenIndia and Turkey at the governmental level and a higher focus on the country inIndian academia and security analysts.