Intensifying climate change will increase the future risk of violent armed conflict within countries, a study has found.
The research, published in the journal Nature, estimatesclimate has influenced between three and 20 per cent of armed conflict riskover the last century and that the influence will likely increase dramatically.
In a scenario with four degrees Celsius of warming, theinfluence of climate on conflicts would increase more than five times, leapingto a 26 per cent chance of a substantial increase in conflict risk, accordingto the study.
Even in a scenario of two degrees Celsius of warming beyondpreindustrial levels — the stated goal of the Paris Climate Agreement — theinfluence of climate on conflicts would more than double, rising to a 13 percent chance.
“Appreciating the role of climate change and itssecurity impacts is important not only for understanding the social costs ofour continuing heat-trapping emissions, but for prioritizing responses, whichcould include aid and cooperation,” said Katharine Mach, from the StanfordUniversity in the US.
Climate change-driven extreme weather and related disasterscan damage economies, lower farming and livestock production and intensifyinequality among social groups.
These factors, when combined with other drivers of conflict,may increase risks of violence.
“Knowing whether environmental or climatic changes areimportant for explaining conflict has implications for what we can do to reducethe likelihood of future conflict, as well as for how to make well-informeddecisions about how aggressively we should mitigate future climatechange,” said Marshall Burke, assistant professor at Stanford.
Researchers disagree intensely as to whether climate plays arole in triggering civil wars and other armed conflicts.
To better understand the impact of climate, the analysisinvolved interviews with and debates among experts in political science,environmental science, economics and other fields who have come to differentconclusions on climate’s influence on conflict in the past.
The experts agree that climate has affected organised armedconflict in recent decades.
However, they make clear that other factors, such as lowsocioeconomic development, the strength of government, inequalities insocieties, and a recent history of violent conflict have a much heavier impacton conflict within countries.
The researchers do not fully understand how climate affectsconflict and under what conditions.
The consequences of future climate change will likely bedifferent from historical climate disruptions because societies will be forcedto grapple with unprecedented conditions that go beyond known experience andwhat they may be capable of adapting to.
“Historically, levels of armed conflict over time havebeen heavily influenced by shocks to, and changes in, international relationsamong states and in their domestic political systems,” said James Fearon,professor at Stanford. “It is quite likely that over this century,unprecedented climate change is going to have significant impacts on both, butit is extremely hard to anticipate whether the political changes related toclimate change will have big effects on armed conflict in turn,” saidFearon.