A novel statistical model that can accurately predict the time and duration of floods has been developed by researchers, including one of Indian origin.
The model created by Nasser Najibi and Naresh Devineni fromThe City College of New York in the US can also accurately determine thetimescale of flooding.
The duration of floods can be determined by river flow,precipitation and atmospheric blocking.
“It is possible to predict the duration of floods bycoupling atmospheric dynamics and land surface conditions in thewatershed,” said Najibi.
The researchers found that long duration floods firstrequire high flow conditions in rivers created by recurrent high intensityrainfall events, which is then followed by a large stable long-livedlow-pressure system — a storm cell.
These conditions may then result in large-scale devastatingfloods, according to the study published in the journal npj Climate andAtmospheric Science.
In shorter duration floods, however, this land-atmosphericcoupling is negligible thus explaining why all storms do not result inwidespread flooding.
Researchers said the model can help mitigate potential riskimposed by longer duration floods on critical infrastructure systems such asflood control dams, bridges and power plants.It is also possible to predict how long theduration of flooding and inundation will be, researchers said.