Sending out a dire warning, the White House on Sundayprojected America’s peak death toll from the coronavirus is likely in two weekscoinciding with Easter weekend and in a worst case scenario, a total of 100,000to 200,000 Americans could eventually succumb to the virus.
“It’s possible. It’s entirely possible that wouldhappen if we don’t mitigate. What we’re trying to do is to not let thathappen,” America’s top infectious diseases doctor, Anthony Fauci said at aWhite House briefing in the Rose Garden on Sunday.
Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus responseco-ordinator, explained that the model which is predicting the 100,000-200,000death toll number assumes that social distancing is happening at scale.
“In the model, there’s a large confidence interval. Inthat model, they make full assumption that we continue doing everything that weare doing and even better. We are hoping that the models aren’t completelyright,” Birx said.
At the same time, Fauci urged Americans not to get”overly anxious” about the extremes of the models. “Models areas good as the assumptions you put into it,” Fauci said.
US president Donald Trump said that the grim numbers comefrom the “most accurate” study so far which landed on his deskSunday.
Trump said, “2.2 million people would have died if wedid not do the social distancing and all that. If we could hold that down to a100,000 – it’s a horrible number – we’ve done a very good job.”
Trump announced that the US is extending the socialdistancing guidelines currently in place till April 30.
Seeking to reassure Americans, Trump said, “By June 1,we will be well on our way to recovery.”
By Sunday, the US death toll crossed the 2,300 mark and itscaseload, already the world’s maximum, rose to more than 135,000.
By now, at least 1 in three Americans are under some form ofgovernment order to stay home and slow the spread of the virus. Schools haveshut, businesses are operating with bare minimum staff and America’sneighbourhoods are enveloped in an otherworldly kind of silence.
The initial ’15 days to slow the spread’ guidelines issuedby the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were announced on March16. The guidelines are voluntary and many states which have emerged as COVID-19hotspots have implemented stricter rules for locals.
Last week, Trump had talked up the “reopening” ofthe US economy by Easter Sunday which falls on April 12. Medical professionalsreacted with alarm, warning that this timeline would be too soon.
Trump backtracked this weekend on a threat to quarantine NewYork and neighbouring states while the CDC issued a travel advisory urgingresidents of New York City, New York State, New Jersey and Connecticut to avoidall nonessential travel for 14 days.
In New York, which remains the epicenter of the outbreak,Governor Andrew Cuomo is saying that virus is spreading “like fire throughdry grass”. The White House task force has already warned that the effectsof mitigation efforts and social distancing won’t be seen at least until theend of the coming week.
As Americans hunker down, Fauci has struck a cautiouslyupbeat tone saying he feels “confident” with all the knowledge nowavailable on the virus. “We will have some sort of therapy, that gives atleast a partial if not a very good protection in preventing progression ofdisease,” he said this week. Randomised control trials are how the US isplanning to get the best drug as quickly and safely as possible to the people.
As the White House task force gets more data from domesticcases, Birx noted that “we’re seeing things here that weren’t reportedfrom other places.”