USA—changing allies in South Asia

In greater part of second half of 20th century, Pakistan was the major non-NATO ally of US in South Asia. As US president—Dwight D Eisenhower’s administration was looking for encircling communist USSR in decade of fifties, Pakistan came handy, given its geostrategic location. Indian Premier Nehru was shaping non-alignment, apparently equidistant from US and USSR power blocs, nevertheless inclined to USSR for diplomatic support and military supplies. Nehru ensured Moscow’s support, as US led western bloc helped move a series of resolutions on ‘K’ dispute in UN. To thwart these resolutions from getting implemented, USSR backed India to the hilt, notwithstanding its non-alignment. Pakistan inched closer to US for support and succour, joining a series of defence pacts along with other nation states. The pacts shaped as SEATO, Baghdad pact—later named CENTO.  These pacts were weaved by John Foster Dulles—Eisenhower’s Secretary of State. US led pacts were made an excuse by Nehru to wriggle out of an international agreement on plebiscite to settle ‘K’ dispute. 

The promised plebiscite remains in limbo, mainly because of changing priorities of global powers, mainly USA. Pakistan continued to be the favoured ally of US in South Asia in cold war era, as USA and USSR vied for global dominance. In 1979, USSR constrained in its approach to warm waters of energy sea lanes in Gulf attacked Afghanistan, with an intention to make its way through South Asia. US led coalition supported Islamic groups joining Afghans to thwart Soviets. The Afghan venture proved to be graveyard of USSR-a conglomerate of states from Eastern Europe to Central Asia. It left USA as the sole superpower. The disparate Islamic groups in time turned against US interests. Quite a few of these groups had established a Pakistani base during Afghan war of eighties. Post 9/11 US pressure on Pakistan increased to deal with the groups dubbed as Islamic insurgents. Afghanistan became yet again the epicentre of global power play. It continues, so does the pressure on Pakistan to act against groups, considered inimical to US interests. Cornered in Kashmir by varying phases of militancy over last three decades, India has lent its voice to US concerns. The convergence of interests has resulted in India moving close to US, gradually elbowing out Pakistan from the space it occupied for good part of 2nd half of 20th century.

   

Indo-US collaboration has gradually widened since the turn of the century. BJP led NDA regimes and Congress led UPA regimes have been nurturing the relationship. Initially it was Foggy Bottom that houses the US state department, which was warming up to India after decades of relationship that ranged from being cool to diplomatically correct. Eventually, as the relationship started assuming strategic proportions, Pentagon housing the defence department made it 2+2 on either side. It translates to Foggy Bottom and Pentagon working in tandem with India’s ministry of external affairs (MEA) and ministry of defence (MOD). The increasing relationship is graduating from one level to another, and widening with passage of time. Last month witnessed the signing of Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) by the two sides in Delhi. In attendance were US Secretary of State—Mike Pompeo and US Secretary of defence—James Mattis with their Indian counterparts-Sushma Swaraj and Nirmala Sitharaman. Wile as Mike Pompeo flew to Delhi from Islamabad; James Mattis skipped Islamabad to join Pompeo in Delhi. The significance of it was not lost, as Pakistan in yesteryears enjoyed an intimate relationship with Pentagon. In recent times, US has held back counter-terrorism aid packages to Pakistan, as well as training programmes for Pak-army personnel in US defence academies. It points to a downgrading of relationship in defence terms, while retaining options that state department might consider feasible. 

Indo-US relationship in the meantime has graduated from Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) signed in August 2016 to COMCASA signed in September 2018.  LEMOA allows access to US and India to each other’s military ports and bases; it can also be used for refuelling and carrying out military exercises between the two countries. COMCASA the step following LEMOA further strengthens Indian and the US defence ties. It provides India access to critical and advanced defence technology from the US, as also the access to communication networks, in order to ensure interoperability between the Indian and US armed forces. It is expected that the third stage agreement, Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation (BECA), which India is yet to sign, may follow. It is about sharing geo-spatial intelligence information on maps and satellite imaging for defence purposes. The enhancing relationship has obvious consequences for South Asian political and diplomatic scene, wherein US veers to Indian standpoint on disputes bedevilling relations between two major South Asian states—India and Pakistan, mainly ‘K’ dispute. 

US may not desire a total breech with Pakistan, given its geostrategic location, and bearing on the Afghan scene. Besides Pakistan banking totally on support from Sino-Russian combine might not be a happy augury for US. As US draws India near, Russia has been courting Pakistan. Sino-Pak relationship in the meantime continues to touch new horizons. As the pendulum swings from Pakistan to India, US may opt to support India on its terrorism plank, however reserving its options to advise both sides to remain engaged, as and when the opportunity presents itself. Much will also depend on Afghan scene in the period ahead, as it has a bearing on how Kashmir evolves.

 Yaar Zinda, Sohbat Baqi [Reunion is subordinate to survival]

iqbal.javid46@gmail.com  

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