Suspense continues over exact timing of assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir. Some latest media reports from New Delhi indicate that Election Commission of India (ECI) is exploring the possibility of holding simultaneously the parliamentary (Lok Sabha) and assembly elections in April-May here. As per the reports the ECI team will meet Union Home Ministry officials in New Delhi next month and discuss whether there is a possibility of simultaneous polls. The team will later visit Jammu and Kashmir to review arrangements for Lok Sabha polls. During their visit the ECI will again discuss with the stakeholders here whether the Lok Sabha and assembly polls can be held together. For assembly elections more arrangements especially on security front will be needed.
The Supreme Court had last year directed the ECI to conduct the assembly polls before September 30, this year. It is to be seen which way the wind blows. Right now the political parties are waiting for the ECI visit to J&K and its outcome regarding assembly polls.
The senior political leaders including National Conference (NC) President Dr Farooq Abdullah and Apni Party President Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari had recently talked about the possibility of simultaneous elections. “If they can hold parliament polls here what is the problem in holding assembly elections,” Dr Farooq Abdullah asked. Some time back the BJP National President J P Nadda during a virtual meeting with party leaders from J&K had directed them to make preparations for both- assembly and Lok Sabha polls.
The central government leaders and the BJP leaders here avoid making any comment regarding exact timing of assembly polls saying ECI has to take a call. ” As far as our party is concerned, we are ready for assembly polls but it is the ECI which has to decide when to hold these elections,” said J&K BJP President Ravinder Raina. Similar statements have been also made by BJP National General Secretary Tarun Chugh and J&K BJP General Secretary (Organisation) Ashok Koul from time to time.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his recent public rally in Jammu did not say anything about assembly polls. The main thrust of his speech was on the development made in Jammu and Kashmir during his rule and particularly after the abrogation of Article 370. Inauguration of the developmental projects worth Rs 32, 000 crores by him was an assurance to the people that the development would gain further momentum in coming times. The rally provided the much needed boost to BJP cadres ahead of the crucial polls. Not only Congress but even the leaders from NC and PDP besides other parties used to tell the Jammu people that nothing has been done by the BJP for them. The BJP leaders are satisfied now that the visit of Prime Minister has helped in diluting the opposition parties’ “propaganda.” “Prime Minister highlighted the enormous work done by his government on the development front and large number of welfare schemes for people of Jammu and Kashmir,” said a BJP leader. Some latest report suggest that Prime Minister is likely to visit Kashmir next month and address a public rally in Anantnag.
The connect of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi with common people during public rallies or other interactions is unparalleled and it reflects the enormous popularity he is having across the country. No other leader in the country is able to touch such heights at present. Keeping the major promises, having mass appeal, made with the people one after the other, he has made the people to believe in “Modi Hai Tu Mumkin Hai” and “Yeh Hai Modi Ki Guarantee”. Rather than the performance of local BJP leaders, it is the charisma and popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi that gets votes for the party and plays a decisive role in its victory in Lok Sabha and assembly polls in the country. Prime Minister during his rally in Jammu struck an emotional chord with Gujjar and Bakerwal community saying that during his organisational visits to J&K in past, the members of community used to host him and take care of him. BJP leaders in Jammu say that this will also help to counter the disinformation campaign launched by some rival parties that granting the scheduled tribe (ST) status to Paharis is injustice with Gujjar and Bakerwal community. According to them that despite the assurances by central government leadership to Gujjars and Bakerwals that ST status to Paharis will not harm their interests, the opposition is trying to mislead them.
The massive outreach by BJP to Paharis and Gujjar and Bakerwal communities during last few years has made NC uncomfortable. In past the people from the two communities were staunch supporters of the party. Later PDP also made some inroads. BJP’s growing strong connectivity with them can hit NC and PDP in parliament and assembly polls. The immediate impact can be visible during parliament polls in the Anantnag-Rajouri-Poonch constituency. And if the assembly polls are also held with parliamentary polls then the effect in a number of assembly constituencies will be visible soon.
Simultaneous polls, if really held, can be a surprise for the political parties. They had been waiting for assembly polls for long. The delimitation of constituencies and then the revision of voter lists took some time. Some parties have already nominated constituency incharges for the assembly polls. It is being believed that mostly these incharges will get the party tickets to contest polls. However, some changes are not also being ruled out. In case the simultaneous polls are held, it is to be seen who among the senior leaders would contest parliament and who assembly polls. From NC either Dr Farooq Abdullah or Omar Abdullah will join the Lok Sabha electoral fray. PDP cadres are also insisting party President Mehbooba Mufti to contest either from Anantnag -Rajouri- Poonch or from Srinagar constituency. The delimitation has merged several areas of south Kashmir, considered as stronghold of PDP, with Srinagar constituency. While Dr Farooq Abdullah had recently announced that NC will not form any electoral alliance, however, on February 27 he told media persons that an alliance will be formed with Congress. He did not mention anything about PDP. Congress leaders say that seat sharing between NC, Congress and PDP for parliamentary polls is on cards. PDP leader Ghulam Nabi Lone Hanjura said that no final decision has been taken yet even as talks are going on.
There seems no alliance happening between Sajad Gani Lone’s Peoples Conference (PC) and Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party. PC has declared that Sajad is its candidate for Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency and Apni Party has also announced that it will announce its candidates for all the five Lok Sabha constituencies after the ECI visit to J&K. Bukhari and Lone had reportedly met some months back and decided to form an alliance. Will senior leader Muzaffar Hussain Baig also contest from Baramulla as an independent candidate? The situation developed after he recently told media persons during Prime Minister’s rally in Jammu that he is not associated with the PDP. Some months back Baig had attended a PDP function in Bijbehara on the death anniversary of party founder and former chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. At that time he told the media that he had never left PDP but was silent. Mehbooba Mufti had also hailed his presence there. It was being predicted that PDP may field him either from Anantnag-Rajouri-Poonch or Baramulla constituency. But that does not seem to have materialised. There are reports that being a prominent Pahari leader , he may contest from Baramulla as an independent candidate or with the support of some other parties. Baramulla has sizeable Pahari population.