Taliban as of today is a reality in Afghanistan. A tediously protracted period of twenty years of fighting and combat with US sponsored NATO war on terror came to a nothing, with US troops withdrawing hurriedly; leaving behind arms ammunition and a trillion dollar investment in jeopardy. The history has repeated Vietnam for America in Afghanistan. Erstwhile President of America Donald Trump was not convinced of a triumph over the rebellion of Taliban that paved way to open up parlors of negotiation with Taliban in Moscow and Abu Dhabi for reaching an amicable settlement to two decades of bloodshed in that country. President Biden, backed by the pentagon establishment, notwithstanding any reconciliation ultimately landed his regime in a quagmire. With more than 80 percent of Afghanistan having fallen to Taliban they are reported to have besieged Kabul from its periphery, the Biden has finally chosen to withdraw in the back drop of important NATO member countries having already withdrawn. Once considered rag tag force, Taliban today seems to be a disciplined and organized lot with brimming support from the neighboring China and also to some extent from Russia. Islamabad has emerged as the most powerful player in the Afghanistan game, so much so that Premier Imran Khan’s blatant denial to allow Pakistan’s defense air ports and air space for use by US has dashed to ground Biden’s expectations to stay in that region to safe guard his interests. Inevitably Pakistan has garnered this diplomatic courage through the unwavering support of Beijing and Moscow.
The capture of 13 kilometer wide Wukhan corridor by Taliban bordering Pakistan and China has opened up a new avenue for Islamabad to trade directly with energy rich Central Asia through Tajikistan, by passing a long route through Kabul. The players in Afghanistan at second position, China and Russia, have made it possible to remove an American impediment in their mutual trade through Afghanistan. This would be further expected to promote the chances of their defense ties. Taliban does not seem to be averse to investment and restructuring of their country by China which the spokesperson Suhail Shaheen has hinted at, and has of late developed good enough relations with Moscow that had brokered negotiations between US envoy Zalme Khaleelzad and Taliban in the recent past. Pakistan over the past more than three decades must have gained adequate experience on handling Afghanistan that would urge her not to play again a big brother role there. Afghans are known through history not to allow external interference in their domestic policies. They have always prioritized the spirit of liberty, self rule and non- interference. This has understandably actuated Imran Khan to declare officially that Islamabad was not responsible for any short comings in Afghanistan and that it had ordered closure of international border with Afghanistan. The whole world now is keenly looking at how Taliban forms Government in Kabul, if they enter the capital. The policy of vengeance against supporters of Ghani regime if adopted would be no less than a political suicide by Taliban and she may lose the world empathy, if any. Most of the observers on Afghanistan geo-politics are of the belief that Taliban appeared to have learned lessons from the past follies and are today more pragmatic, refined and practical. It is widely believed that a traditional grand Jirga might be summoned to form the Government representing all ethnicities of the land supposed to be an Afghani traditional substitute for electoral democracy; failing which the country would be in for yet another internecine war that the key players – Islamabad, Beijing and Moscow – are fully aware of. Today’s Afghanistan is entirely a different one that has become a centre stage involving stakes of the regional powers that Taliban must be well aware of. With the change of Government in Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran seems to invigorate her efforts to secure her borders with Afghanistan so as to remain vigilant to threats from US-Israel and create a peaceful atmosphere to concentrate on her economy. This would require a mutual understanding with Taliban.
India had developed good relations with the Karzai and Ghani regimes, and also heavily invested for infrastructure development of Afghanistan in the past. The sectors of education roads and Dam construction were undertaken. New Delhi may experience it hard to develop her renewed diplomatic relations with the Taliban centered Government in Kabul but the possibilities can never be ruled out in the domain of political interest of nations. Constant diplomatic efforts to befriend the new breed of Government in Afghanistan based on mutual stakes is not a remote possibility taking all the stake holders of the region into confidence.
DR.MUZAFFAR SHAHEEN is a faculty at SKUAST ( K)