In the backdrop of BJP think tank’s calculations about the minimum chances of opposition unity for 2024 parliamentary polls, Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar’s scathing remarks on saffron party’s dwindling political fortune assumes a lot of national significance.
It gets strengthened owing to relentless efforts being made by Bihar deputy CM, Tejashwi Yadav who has met scores of chief ministers and senior leaders of opposition parties during the past few months.
In a related development, Congress has made its intentions clear while asserting that opposition unity will neither be possible and successful without Congress, owing to its pan India presence unlike regional parties. The AICC session is scheduled from Feb 24 to 26 which will dwell upon the issue of the role of Congress in stitching together the opposition.
Congress says that it knows its role well and does not recognize those who are having double face.Congress president Malik Arjun Kharge has initiated dialogue with the opposition leaders welcomed Nitish’s observations about the impact of Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra on national politics.
The plenary would be attended by 15,000 delegates from across the country. There will be 1,825 AICC delegates, out of which 1,338 are elected AICC delegates and 487 are co-opted members. There will be 9,915 elected delegates from Pradesh Congress Committees (PCCs) and 3000 co-opted members.
The 1,800 odd AICC delegates, 704 are from the general category and 228 are from minority communities. As many as 381 are from other backward classes, 192 belong to Scheduled Caste groups and 192 are from Scheduled Tribes. There are 235 women delegates and 501 are below the age of 50 years.
Kharge as PM candidate? As a last-minute strategic move and a trump card, Congress can spring a surprise and announce Kharge, a Dalit, as prime ministerial candidate which may create problems for regional straps to oppose him. As per data, out of 543 seats, the number of scheduled caste seats is 84 and outcome of dozens of seats can be decided by the caste voters which may upset calculations of BJP as well as other parties.
Experts opine that Congress had BJP had direct face off in 186 Lok sabha seats and latter won 170 seats as smaller parties indirectly helped saffron party nominees owing to division of votes. BJP had won 162 seats in 2014 and its strike rate was almost 84 % as compared to 91.4 % in 2019 and congress could win only 15 seats whereas number was 24 in 2014.
Future strategy: Analysts say that Congress has got two options. First, it can project Rahul Gandhi as prime ministerial candidate which will be based on his image makeover and response received during Bharat Jodo Yatra. Second, it agrees to the reality that Nitish Kumar has more acceptability amongst the hardliner regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, KCR etc. who also fancy their chances to lead combined opposition. But they will be deadly opposed to Rahul’s leadership.
Experts say that opposition unity is possible only if Congress and regional party leaders agree to have a seat sharing formula which should be based on the strength in the states. Opposition leaders will have to give the lion’s share to Congress in those states which are ruled by it like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh besides Madhya Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Haryana, Punjab etc. where it has got a one to one contest with BJP. Second, similarly, Congress and other parties will have to leave the field open to leaders like Banerjee in West Bengal, Kejriwal in Delhi, Stalin in Tamil Nadu, Shiv Sena (Udhav Thakre) in Maharashtra, Samajwadi party, Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh etc. where they reign supreme. Third, Nitish Kumar may become face of combined opposition as he will be acceptable to regional satraps and Congress leaders including Sonia and Rahul are having soft corner towards him, which was possible due to imitative taken by Laloo Prasd Yadav. Fourth, division of votes may be averted which will be a major strength of opposition unity to put BJP on the mat in 2024 elections.
Experts opine that Congress had BJP had direct face off in 186 Lok Sabha seats and latter won 170 seats as smaller parties indirectly helped saffron party nominees owing to division of votes. BJP had won 162 seats in 2014 and its strike rate was almost 84 % as compared to 91.4 % in 2019 and Congress could win only 15 seats whereas number was 24 in 2014.
BJP to re-work on alliance partners: Narender Modi was NDA face in 2014 parliamentary poll and BJP won 282 seats and total figure was 336, though there were 29 allies including 13 marginal players with zero strike rate. BJP had formed alliances in 11 states besides smaller groups in the 2019 elections and independently won 303 Lok Sabha seats.
Analysts say that the departure of Akali Dal in Punjab, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, Peoples Democratic Party in Kashmir, Asom Gana Parishad and now JD(U) in Bihar has put question mark over BJP’s strategy to maintain strike rate in 2024 parliamentary polls hence new strategy might be adopted by the high command.
BJP does not have its own standing in several states specially in South which makes it obligatory to search for alliance partners but now it is getting poorer on this front as regional satraps have got their priorities of survival in their respective states.? After successful ‘Operation Lotus’ in Maharashtra, it was turn of Bihar but Nitish Kumar was not Udhav Thakre who was caught napping and lost the power hence Bihar’s strongman dumped his partner and embraced the rival, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Tejashevi Yadav to form new government.
Due to several reasons, as many as 15 different political parties left the NDA between the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections which included JD (U) in Bihar, Shiv Sena (Udhav) in Maharashtra, Aakali dal in Punjab. BJP will struggle to add new effective partners in the states though it is focusing on smaller parties. The opposition parties have got large numbers provided their leaders come out of inflated egos and over ambitiousness.
Laloo’s recovery may act as a booster to forge opposition unity as he enjoys cordial relations with Sonia Gandhi and Rahul who will be key figures to challenge BJP. But owing to inflated egos of regional satraps and inner constrictions, the opposition unity may sound like a mirage hence dilli abhi door hai may hound the mission.
(Writer is political analyst and senior journalist)
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author.
The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing in the article do not reflect the views of GK.