The world is, with deep concern, watching the conflict in Ukraine and its impact on the global and regional orders. The Connect Central Asia policy of Indian state has assumed more significance in present circumstances. Modi Government hosted first virtual India-Central Asia Summit on January 27, 2022 ( CAR leaders had earlier similar virtual summit with Xi Jinping of China).
Significantly the summit meetings shall now be held in an institutionalised format after every two years. India was first to accord recognition to Central Asian republics after breakup of Soviet Union. Notwithstanding this India is marginal to the region.
India and CARs are separated by hot-spots and natural routes are closed due to India-Pakistan rivalry. Meanwhile great power rivalry and “Sphere of influence” theory have come under new spotlight due to the conflict in Ukraine.
The strategic priority for policy circles in Delhi is to deepen cooperation with Central Asian region through the natural routes and obtain more strategic space to checkmate greater turbulence in regional and global politics. The victory of Modi government in recent elections should induce some realism in Delhi.
Context
Historically, developments in the North-western frontier area have influenced the security environment of the Indian sub-continent. This geopolitical logic shaped the nature of Mughal empire, the British empire and also the post-colonial security landscape. The security experts still refer to” Pannikar Thesis” to re-emphasise the fact that Kabul valley does impact the Gangetic plains. The international and regional order is not settled. We are moving to a more messy multipolar system which is yet to take shape. The conflict in Ukraine has further exacerbated it. Vladimir Lenin stated “there are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen”. In this context India-Central Asia summit holds great significance. As a follow-up to this virtual summit an India-Central Asia Secretariat shall be established in Delhi to support the process. The leaders discussed other proposals viz, connectivity, security and cultural contacts to further cement the relationships. Happily, Kazakhstan is home to around 5000 and Kyrgyzstan 15000 Indian students. But all this may not result in any major push to relationship unless Indian leadership recognises the full picture of connectivity.
Difficult Road
There are many irritants in the path to develop smooth relationship between India and the CARs. First, lack of access to land routes and instability in Afghanistan pose big challenges. Second, there is the issue of moving trade – a minuscule $2 billion contrary to China’s trade with CARs having exceeded $41 billion – which can double by 2030. Third, routing trade through Chabahar port means more investment and India may not go for that in the face of US sanctions on Iran. Fourth, some analysts suggest the alternative viz, Russia-Iran international North-South Transport Corridor via Bandar Abbas Port but the same is not operational. Finally, the (TAPI) Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline plans have also gone into oblivion. While as India is weighing the way forward to connect with CARs time and tide wait for none. China is the biggest development and infrastructure partner of the Republics. Russia is not far behind and Pakistan too is increasing its outreach to the CARs offering trade access to the Indian ocean at Gwadar and Karachi. The Central Asian region cannot be the cul-de-sac for successive Indian governments and hence we need to find out reliable entry points for India to overcome its deficit in CARs policy.
Tumultuous Context
The Russian action in Ukraine has created more uncertainty in great power politics. Some analysts hold the view that China may be tempted to exploit the opportunities provided by the western entanglement with Russia. China may not remain principal villain in the eyes of western world. Speaking at Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow in July, 2001 Indian Foreign Minister Dr Jaishankar said “China’s rise impacts India’s immediate neighbors. Its rise also impacts Russia”. Earlier, former Indian Naval Chief Arun Prakash cogently stated, “China having amply demonstrated its penchant for “salami-slicing” territory as well as its disdain for international law leaves India with little room for complacency or for vainly hoping that so called legacy issues will resolve themselves with time. It is therefore vital to deconstruct China’s elaborate charade and to halt the covert but steady hemorrhaging of Indian territory”. This builds-up the case for reviving the immediate neighborhood to step into the extended regional space for attainment of foreign policy objectives. There are three key issues which need close scrutiny:
First, diplomacy and diplomats in our part of the world, in spite of wars and territorial disputes, were sophisticated and well-versed in the art of diplomacy. The author of this column has firsthand experience of knowing some of them after their superannuation when they positively invested in peace in the region. Unfortunately the softer side of diplomacy is changing into hardwired format. Diplomatic tools viz, tact, skilfull persuasion, adjustment, choice of words etc., are backseat. The diplomacy has moved from ‘secrecy to brazenness’. In the beginning of this year a rude missive from the Chinese embassy to a member of Indian parliament who had attended a function of the ‘Tibetan parliament’ in exile is a case in point. Diplomacy as a tool needs to be respected and restored in the region beset with multiple problems.
Second, the decision to abandon SAARC in favor of Bay of Bengal initiative for Multi- Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BMSTEC), Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal Initiative (BBIN), and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) may have provided some comfort to Indian state in isolating Pakistan. But the same hasn’t helped it in Afghanistan or more importantly in connecting to Central Asia. The above alignments have not reaped any tangible benefits to Delhi.
Third, China is taking advantage of Indian myopic policy and is increasing its footprints in CARs through Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Foreign policy pundits opine that China will vigorously contest the vision of Central Asia and South Asia as part of Delhi’s sphere of influence. The great power status doesn’t come from blue sky. It emanates incrementally by investing in immediate neighborhood. Modi government’s neighborhood policy is ad hoc and reactive. The Prime Minister after emerging stronger from recent state elections needs to revisit his speech to Afghan parliament made in 2015. He said, “In the achievements of Maurayan Empire and that of Sher Shah Suri we see connectivity we now aspire to achieve and rebuild.” “Pakistan”, he said, “will become the bridge between South Asia and Central Asia”. All this sounds sweet but the other truth is that the Pakistani state has equal responsibility to contribute to this otherwise difficult process.
Prof Gull Wani teaches Political Science at Kashmir University
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author.
The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing in the article do not reflect the views of GK.