The 2022 Kazakh Crisis

A former Soviet nation that has been in the middle of chaos from last month, the republic of Kazakhstan has seen the worst violence in decades because of government policies.

This all started when the Kazakh government removed the cap on the prices of fuel that resulted in costs doubling, and it all happened overnight.

   

Huge protests erupted first in small industrial city of Zhanaozen and then in other parts of Kazakhstan. This protest began on 2nd January and swelled across the rest of Kazakhstan.

Initially, it only stayed in major towns, but by 5th January its capital, Astana also saw protesters on the streets.

The rise in fuel prices was only the tip of the iceberg, as Kazakh society was in shambles, both politically and economically. Kazakhstan is a vast country with abundant natural resources, but its 19 million citizens continue to live in poverty.

Like its neighbor, a few elites or Oligarchs own roughly half of the country’s wealth. Inequality, corruption, lack of opportunity, low wages, and lack of labor were many of such issues that were highlighted by the protesters.

Most of these people were ordinary citizens, students, working-class men and women, and not foreign extremists, as stated by the Kazakh government, that was keen on labelling them as outsiders, foreign funded militias.

In order to understand this unrest, we would have to dig up history a bit. Nursultan Nazarbayev ruled Kazakhstan from 1986. He ruled his country like an autocrat would and ensured that those who supported him remained well-off and those who opposed him were jailed.

Nazarbayev was an influential figure in the USSR and held many important positions. He stepped down in 2019 when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took over while Nazarbayev remained part of an influential circle called the National Security Council (NSC).

In Kazakhstan, it is also illegal to take out protest, to form a union, and to show any anti-government symbols or speeches. That shows the manner in which Nazarbayev ruled this country and he kept power as central as possible. He had very good ties with the Russian President and this ensured a smooth going for his presidency.

By January 5th, situation worsened across the nation and at many other places like Aktau, Aktobe people took out massive protests. At most places, these protests were headless and had no direction, but the message was common: Shal Ket in Kazakh that translated to “old man, out” referring to Nazarbayev to leave.

Even though he left the office in 2019, his influence over the policymaking was still seen and the new present Tokayev was only a puppet picked by Nazarbayev.

As the protest continued for days, the Kazakh government gave its army and police clear order for a shoot to kill and subsequently the liquidation of protesters took place.

As the situation worsened, all forms of communication were banned and a complete shutdown was called by the government. Buildings, city halls, government offices were burnt by protesters.

A complete emergency was declared by the Tokayev government and it started arresting people en masse. By 13th January, over 1200 protestors were arrested and by end of the month, the number rose to over 5000 with 200 dead.

As the Tokayev’s government saw no hope, it called on the Collective Safety Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of Russia and ex-soviet states. Close to 4000 Russian troops poured into Kazakhstan to help stabilize the country and to suppress the anti-government demonstrations.

Kazakh government called these protesting people “terrorists” and labeled them as extremists who are trying to unsettle his government and labeled journalists, students, and other workers as collaborators.

This was the first time since its independence that Russian troops have entered inside the territory of Kazakhstan.

It was clear from these protests that if immediate steps are not taken, it will cause more unrest, so Tokayev firstly sacked Nazarbayev from the National Security Council (NSC), started restoring communication lines, and also agreed to put an end to rising of fuel prices.

When Nazarbayev stepped down, he declared himself as the father of the nation, asserting that he still wants to have some say in the country’s politics.

Poverty has remained one of many core points that led to this protest against the government. An Average citizen of Kazakhstan earns merely less than 4000 USD and with these price rises, it was going to get worse.

Tokayev’s government arrested internal security chief Karim Massimov and many of his associates who Tokayev accused of planting a coup and stating this anti-government riots.

The main content of this protest seems an anti-elite sentiment that existed in Kazakhstan and many other former Soviet states where inequality was among the highest in the world. It is no surprise that 160 people own over half of the country’s wealth.

Most of these Kazakh elites have real estates in Europe worth billions. The Nazarbayev family alone possesses property worth over 300 million USD in Britain.

Tokayev’s government since 11th January made several key reforms, reshuffled the cabinet, ended legal monopolies associated with Nazarbayev’s daughter, and agreed to set up the People of Kazakhstan Wealth Fund that would grant through a donation from corporations that thrived under Nazarbayev’s rule.

Kazakh government response to these protests wasn’t received well across the globe and treating its citizens the way it did will create more problems in near future. A lot of steps have been taken, some for good, and some in the opposite directions.

Tokayev has merged more power and made certain changes that gave him more control over internal security. Rising predatory debt, internal migration and increase in prices will be key components for the Tokayev government to fix.

The international media and the western governments have been critical of the Kazakh government and how it handled the protest and will keep a close eye on this central Asian country.

It seems very difficult for the detainees and those who protested against the government to get free and as Tokayev gets hold of more institutions, it will be interesting whether he will go down the same path as his predecessor.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author.

The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing in the article do not reflect the views of GK.

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