Electoral arena to witness full-scale political action after Home Min sounds assembly poll bugle for J&K

Srinagar: With Union Home Minister Amit Shah almost sounding the assembly poll bugle for Jammu and Kashmir, the electoral arena is going to witness full-scale action at fast pace by contesting political parties from the coming days.

Going by all available indications, this election like previous other polls can also generate lot of excitement, enthusiasm and dedication from political parties since some of them believe that it is like a do or die situation politically for them now.

   

This is for the first time that assembly polls will be held when Jammu and Kashmir is a Union Territory. The Central Government while abrogating Article 370 and bifurcating J&K state into two Union Territories on August 5, 2019 had assured that the statehood will be restored ” at an appropriate time” after the assembly polls and government formation. Since then the promise has been repeated several times by the leadership.

Assembly elections will be held also for the first time after the electoral map of Jammu and Kashmir would be largely changed on the recommendations of Delimitation Commission, which has already revealed its interim report and shortly scheduled to submit its almost similar final report.

Last assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir were held in five phases from November 25 to December 20 in 2014. That year floods in September had caused massive devastation in Kashmir including Srinagar. But even then the elections were conducted.

After Home Minister Amit Shah’s announcement on Monday, it is being believed here by the political parties that the polls can be held either in October-November or November-December.

Priority will be to complete the exercise before major snowfall occurs next winter. All extensive poll and security related arrangements will be at place during the elections.

Politicians view that the central government and local administration will have to ensure that all the parties get required security cover for wider campaigning and higher voter turnout. The 2014 assembly poll had witnessed 65 per cent polling- a record in 25 years.

Leadership of Kashmir based political parties has already begun their public outreach in several areas of Jammu region. Now this outreach will extend to more and more areas with every passing day. After the home minister’s announcement about polls, BJP too is expected to start its poll related activities in a big way.

Unlike the past, the two major Kashmir based parties and once sworn political enemies, National Conference and PDP, have the fears that none of them can be part of the government formation after the polls this time since a situation like that has been created for them.

They are not already happy with the Delimitation Commission’s interim report, which, they say, have put them at a massive disadvantage. Despite their displeasure, NC and PDP will devise their poll strategies as per the changed ground realities.

While PDP does not have much stakes in this election, it is like a do or die situation for NC. That may be the reason why party president Dr Farooq Abdullah is trying to lead from the front.

NC vice president and former Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah, who had announced not to contest polls if J&K continues to be a union territory and who is presently keeping a low profile , will be back in political action.

Being a veteran politician, Farooq realises that staying away from polls by the senior leadership this time will demoralise further his party workers and supporters and such a move can be like conceding defeat much before polls and giving a cake walk to BJP in Jammu and its few allies in Kashmir.

PDP president Mehbooba Mufti, who too had announced not to contest, may also change her decision. There are only a few senior faces left in her party who can go out and contest elections.

All others, who had won on PDP mandate in 2014 and also due to their personal influence in their respective constituencies, have either formed Apni Party or joined People Conference (PC). Both PDP and NC have been alleging that BJP wants to form the government with the support of Apni Party and People’s Conference.

On the other hand leaders of these two parties often ask the leadership of NC and PDP as to why they feel good while forming government with BJP and bad when BJP wishes to form government with other parties.

It is to be seen now whether NC and PDP will decide to contest polls jointly or fight separately. NC would like to go alone because the party appears much stronger than the PDP right now.

But at the same time this oldest party in Kashmir would not like division of votes between it and PDP and victory of Apni Party or People’s Conference candidates in some specific constituencies of Kashmir.

NC would also not be happy with division of votes in Poonch and Rajouri districts and Chenab Valley and subsequent possible victory of BJP candidates in such a scenario.

NC may like to work out a strategy with the PDP to avoid such a situation in these constituencies if not in all the constituencies in J&K. But in return the PDP too would wish to have some electoral favour in a few constituencies.

In Chenab Valley, Ghulam Nabi Azad is an important player and his moves and support can be decisive in some constituencies. While he still continues to be in Congress, his differences with party leadership and growing closeness with BJP will unfold shortly his future plan.

National Conference leadership is presently trying to take some advantage in BJP’s stronghold areas in Jammu by raising the unsolved problems and issues of the local people there.

However, BJP leaders do not seem much worried since they believe that their central leadership has done more than enough to have impressive victories in coming J&K assembly poll. In 2014 polls, the party had made some important promises with voters.

This time they can show that BJP has delivered on the promises like abrogation of article 370 and Article 35 A, and an end to J&K constitution and flag.

Now they can promise with full confidence to people in Jammu a BJP government with a BJP Chief Minister- A challenge which National Conference led by Dr Farooq Abdullah appears to have taken very seriously and would like to meet with full political strength, experience and strategy.

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