Disasters whether natural or anthropogenic have a drastic effect in changing the socio-psychological and environmental realities of regions. They turn to be the events when governments are clueless in approaching the immediate repercussions of these crisis situations. This year’s theme for World Environment Day is, ‘Time for Nature,’ with a focus on its role in providing the essential infrastructure that supports life on Earth and human development. There is an emerging trend of climate-induced disasters at different regional scales in the current environmental settings of the world demanding a critical evaluation in deciphering the complexities related to the humanitarian dimension of nature-society dichotomies. After COVID-19 pandemic, India and regions across the world are heading towards a trend of climate induced disasters and vagaries of climate change resulting in extreme weather related events with the existing socio-economic conditions making it worse for the country to adapt for the same.
India’s Tryst with Disasters
India is abreast with multifarious vulnerabilities when it comes to disaster scenarios owing to its geomorphological diversities and structural inertia in the effective blueprint for disaster governance. Northern India has shown the proclivities towards the seismic and hydro-meteorological disasters (flash floods, landslides) with micro-climatic and riverine settlement patterns. These areas considered as the hotspot pilgrimage centres have the destabilizing impact on the bio-physical configuration of the region. We have witnessed in recent past the floods from Utrakhand and frequent seismic events in the north-eastern Himalayan states of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. Central India too has been the centre stage of typologies of disasters from floods to drought spells because of its climatic and asymmetric urbanisation patterns. The coastal geographies of West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa and the related approximate coastal regions have experienced the worst of furies in the form of cyclones and flood events with pronounced impact on the socio-ecological spectrum of the region. According to the National Disaster Management Authority, about 40 million hectares of land in India is vulnerable to droughts, avalanches and landslides (around 68 per cent of the total land area), 12 per cent of land is exposed to floods and river erosion, 58.6 per cent landmass being earthquake-prone, while cyclones and tsunamis are a regular phenomenon for 5,700 km of the 7,516-km long coastal line. Such vulnerable conditions have placed India amongst the top disaster-prone countries.
Global Climate Risk Index report 2019 considered India as the 14th most vulnerable country in the world, due to high incidence of extreme weather events. Recently, Cyclone ‘Amphan’ became the strongest storm surge striking ever recorded in the coast of West Bengal, north of Indian Ocean. The subcontinent with a long coastline of 8041 kilometres is exposed to nearly 10 per cent of the world’s tropical cyclones. Data from US Joint Typhoon Warning Center categorized Cycle Amphan as Category 3 ‘Super Cyclone’ with wind speed in excess of 230 km’s/ hour and gusts of up to 270km’s/hour. Positioned between west and north-west part of India with Myanmar to the east and Bangladesh to the north, Amphan became the second strongest super cyclone to strike the Bay of Bengal after the 1999 super cyclone ‘Fani’ with sustained wind speed up to 260km’s/hour and more than 10,000 fatalities.
Climate Change and Disasters
According to new study from the scientists of NOAA and University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) Climate change is making tropical cyclones more strong with sustained winds getting stronger, after analysing nearly 40 years of enhanced infrared satellite imagery. Cyclone Amphan certainly bears out the main findings from the study. The North Indian Ocean is one of the highly vulnerable regions for Tropical Cyclone activity attributed to the various factors from geographical vexities to prediction limits, early warning system and effective disaster management decision support system assuming more significance in the recent anthropocenic era. Modelling studies on climate change indicate that the world is getting affected drastically by temperature and precipitation erratic’s leading to alarming trend in river runoff with pressure points getting developed mostly around major cities of the world. NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) reported in its monthly global climate record review that global temperatures for the year 2020 are on track to be among the highest ever recorded, as first three months of the year have been considered as planet’s second warmest in 141 years of record-keeping. NCEI attributed these unusually high temperatures “in part due to human-caused climate change,” forecasting that there is a 75% chance that 2020 will be the hottest year since measurements began. Arctic nations were left without snow in their major cities as this January was hottest on record. In Antarctica, a research base registered a temperature of more than 20°C (68F) this February on the southern continent In February, a research base in the Antarctic registered a temperature of more than for the first time on the southern continent while as on the other end of the world Qaanaaq, in Greenland, set a record of 6°C this April. India geographically positioned in the South Asian faces the inherent tendency of being a hazard prone region as observed from the global distribution of hazards.
Natural hazards amidst COVID-19
West Bengal and Orissa arranged evacuations for up to 3 million people stuck in this onslaught of tidal surges, a daunting trial challenged by the rising incidence of COVID-19 infections in the shelters housing thousands of people. There is a persistent fear of spread in the coronavirus as shelters lack sanitation facilities and there is no sanitation protocol being followed in the wake of this disaster. It seems there is a confluence of disasters both the health and this hydro-meteorological one. There are estimates of loss of around 12 billion euros, trees being uprooted far and wide, electricity black outs, communication systems affected. It seems this wasn’t as on the other hand COVID-19 has been testing the resilience of people at this very critical and fragile juncture .During this pandemic world saw another Category 5 cyclone (on the Saffir-Simpson scale.) from April 5 to April 8 across Pacific island countries. The social, economic, and environmental impacts of the pandemic, intensified by climate-induced disasters such as tropical Cyclone Harold, will echo well into the future around the world. ICIMOD premier think tank of Himalayan cryopshere and climate dynamics, in a recent compilation based on South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-16) warned of monsoon floods during pandemic and made relevant additions in maintaining community based early warning systems (CBFEWS) for ensuring their robust functioning during an event. Delineating potential sites for temporary shelters where social distancing measures are possible or establishing quarantine centres for probable COVID-19 cases during floods and swotting standard operating procedures so that people are at protected from these crisis situations. India Meteorological Department (IMD) on its 24th May forecast reported “heat wave to severe heat wave conditions” over Northwest, Central and adjoining Peninsular India with heavy rains over the Northeast. Nature Climate Change published a joint study from economists and scientists on 15 May 2020 inferring at the compounding risks during COVID-19 pandemic. The study stresses that climate hazards which are rising in frequency and intensity under climate change with the likely intersection of COVID-19 outbreak and public health response will add to the worries and troubles of both the public and political preparedness. These multiplier risks will be aggravated by the looming economic crisis and manifest socioeconomic and racial disparities, across geographical scales putting populations at “heightened risk and compromise recovery”. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s in its annual Atlantic hurricane forecast published on 21 May 2020 shows an erratic active season ahead in the coming months running from June 1 through November 30. Forecast indicated that there is a 60 percent incidence of above normal hurricane activity derived from multiple climatic factors. India has been engulfed by another threat from changing climate as locusts have swarmed the large parts of Northern and Central pockets and has been dubbed as the India’s ‘Second Plague’ and ‘worst’ too. Climate change events from intensification in aridity scenarios to vast desertification pathways in vast areas of Africa, following a reversed trend (i.e., increase in intensity and frequency of rains), giving rise to favourable conditions for the formation of swarms. This pandemic saw another disaster in the form of collapse of two Michigan dams on 19 May further asserting the climate change impacts on dam breaks with rising precipitation trends and storm events getting frequent and intense. The Journal Science in its recent study found that bigger, older trees being support system in their forest ecosystems are being lost at an alarming pace, shifting trend of forest dynamics making by making them shorter and younger. Deforestation, increasing temperatures and climate-induced disasters are radically altering the very conditions of planet’s forests, established the findings from the said study. These erratic and frequent ‘crisis’ events have been reminding us how we should revisit our understanding and quintessential standing of environment/nature in our lives both individually and at societal level.
Way Forward
The extreme rainfall ,heat wave, coastal flooding events during the pandemic times demand a unique and extraordinary approach of dealing with the imminent hydro-meteorological disasters by having the advanced warning systems on place to reduce the toll they take on communities. Taking a glance into the mortality patterns derived from the risk of natural hazards India falls into the most vulnerable region thereby calling for the effective and robust management of disaster configurations. In the short term, well-coordinated efforts from local to national authorities must map out the contingency plans in anticipation of extreme weather and climate related disasters striking during the coronavirus times. There is a dire need of striking the perfect chord in charting out the course of having both the social distancing measures and relief and rehabilitation responses at place. Pilot studies and proxy indicators should be identified for approaching pro-actively and through scientific connexion in containing and managing the convergence of disasters. There should be introduction and intent in taking pre-emptive measures and policies for mitigating and building community resilience strategies for coping with the impending disasters as India is prone to natural and anthropogenic disasters. Natural and climate-induced disasters have generally being considered as intersections between frequency of hazardous events, structure of risk involving agency including political, economic and environment categories . The prior understanding of disaster vulnerability patterns and means to increase its adaptive capabilities of the system would assist in reducing the adverse threats due to disaster events. In resource-deficient countries, disaster susceptibility mapping will help in detecting hotspots thus helping in adaptation and mitigation strategies for the most vulnerable regions/communities. Lastly adopting integrated hazard mitigation framework taking into account associated storm surge and cyclone trajectory, wind hazard, river flood, rainfall-runoff, and Geographical Information System (GIS) based models for estimating inundation hotspots along with the potential damages to crops, houses, infrastructure, etc., assessing not only the vulnerability but also the changing profile of disaster markers from time to time. Grahame Madge, a climate spokesman for the England’s Met Office perfectly sums up the impending crisis faced by the humanity an cautions us “A reliance and trust in science to inform action from governments and society to solve a global emergency are exactly the measures needed to seed in plans to solve the next crisis facing mankind: climate change.” It surely is a time for nature now..!
Mir Sajad is a Researcher, Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Kashmir