The 2022 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community should serve as an eye opener for Pakistani rulers and its Army, who have still not given up their obsession with Kashmir.
The assessment is a clear warning to Pakistan that it should not make any attempt to provoke India as India under the leadership of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to any misadventure.
Apparently Pakistani State claims that it has got nothing to do with the terrorism and violence in Kashmir but the entire world knows that it’s a blatant lie.
Till 2014, when Narendra Modi, took over as the Prime Minister, India used to follow a soft policy towards terrorists and Pakistan. PM Modi’s predecessors never thought about crossing the Line of Control to take on the terrorists and their bosses head on.
The India’s desire for peace was considered to be its weakness due to which the Pakistan and the terrorists sponsored by it turned Jammu and Kashmir into a battlefield.
Soon after Modi took over the reins of the country in 2014, he made it clear that India won’t tolerate terrorism, nor can any talks be held with a country which sponsors and exports terror.
The beginning
In September 2016, four terrorists attacked an Indian Army camp at Uri near Line of Control in North Kashmir. In the attack, nineteen soldiers were killed. Pakistan and the terrorist bosses silently congratulated each other and started planning yet another misadventure.
But they were shell shocked, when Indian Army soldiers on September 29, 2016 crossed the Line of Control (LoC) for the first time since 1990—when the Pakistan sponsored armed insurgency broke out in J&K—, besides destroying the terror launch pads and training camps, soldiers killed more than 50 to 70 terrorists, and returned to their base camps without even losing a single man.
By conducting surgical strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), PM Modi announced the policy “New India” towards terrorism and the nation grooming terrorists in its backyard. Indian Army soldiers crossing the LoC sent a clear message to the adversary that India won’t act as a mute spectator and whenever the need arises it would hit back and hit back hard.
Balakote airstrikes
Just few months before PM Modi was about to complete his first term in the office, Pakistan sponsored terrorists struck yet again by carrying out a suicide attack on a convoy of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in South Kashmir’s Pulwama district on February 14, 2019. The attack left 40 CRPF men dead.
This time India retaliated in a bigger way as the jets of Indian Air Force flew deep inside the Pakistan territory and carried out air-strikes at terror camps in Balakote. The camps of the terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) were specific targets as the outfit had claimed the responsibility for the Pulwama attack.
India endorses Modi’s policy
After the results of the general elections were announced in 2019, PM Modi returned to power with a thumping majority as the people endorsed his decisions to take the bull by its horns.
Modi earning the second term in the office led to revocation of J&K’s special status and its bifurcation into two Union Territories on August 5, 2019.
Pakistan tried its best to rake up the reorganisation of J&K at the international level but all the countries, including the Muslim nations, shut the doors on Pakistan Prime Minister, Imran Khan, by terming J&K as an internal issue of India.
Despite India changing J&K’s status-quo, Pakistan and the ultras sponsored by it didn’t dare to carry out any major attack in the erstwhile princely state. They were aware of the fact that if they indulge in any misadventure, Indian Army would cross the LoC to end all the disputes, including that of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), once for all.
Amit Shah’s induction into cabinet
PM Modi inducting his close friend and trusted lieutenant, Amit Shah, into his cabinet in 2019 and giving him all important Home portfolio provided impetus to the fight against terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.
The Ministry of Home Affairs under the leadership of Shah took bold steps to wipe out terrorism from the Himalayan region, where separatists like Hurriyat hawk, late Syed Ali Shah Geelani, so-called JKLF chief, Yasin Malik and others used to call the shots by calling for street protests and shutdowns on regular basis.
A handful of separatists, who used to dance to the tunes of their bosses sitting across the LoC, were put behind bars. The leaders of terrorist groups were eliminated by the security forces in different encounters. At present J&K is directly being governed by the Centre, PM Modi and Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, are personally monitoring the situation.
The strong political will and determination of top leaders aren’t allowing Pakistan leadership to plan anything big. The Uri surgical strikes and Balakot airstrikes have served as deterrents as the terrorists fear that if they indulge any misadventure, it would mean India mounting an attack on Pakistan.
Pak brought on knees
The “New India” led by Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has brought Pakistan on its knees. It was evident in the National Security Policy (NSP) document issued by Pakistan in January this year. The NSP emphasised on pursuing peace with India. It mentioned that ‘Pakistan, under its policy of peace at home and abroad, wishes to improve its relationship with India.”
The country which for the past seven decades has been pursuing the policy of confrontation coming up with an NSP which talks about peace with India is a big surprise. This indicates that Pakistan has realised that if it talks about war, it would get a befitting reply from India as the Indian armed forces are in full state of preparedness.
The renewed ceasefire along the Line of Control and International Border which the armies of both the companies agreed to abide by in February 2021, has held good for more than a year. The Pakistan Army hasn’t made any attempt to violate the truce.
But the past experiences stand testimony to the fact that Pakistan cannot be relied upon as there are reports that terrorists are regrouping on launch pads across the LoC and are making attempts to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir.
In the Valley, groups like the Resistance Front have emerged as the local face of insurgency, while in Pakistan terror groups like JeM and Lashkar-e-Toiba have retained their presence as authorities have failed to act against them.
Ball in Pak’s court
Pakistan since 1947 has been ruled by the Army and the politicians have had no role other than being puppets in the hands of Army Generals.
The 2022 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community has sounded an alarm to inform the rulers in Pakistan not to try anything out of the box as the present dispensation in India led by PM Modi can turn the heat on them without any prior notice.
Now, the ball is in the court of Pakistan and it has to decide whether it really wants peace or not. It seems that India has given it a last opportunity and if Pakistan tries anything it would mean inviting decisive action from the Indian side.
Manoj Gupta is Editor, Investigations & Security Affairs at CNN-News18
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author.
The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing in the article do not reflect the views of GK.