Notwithstanding China’s open support, Nepal prime minister, Kharag Prasad Oli failed to cling to power with the active support of China, and his Anti India three year era came to unceremonious end on May 21 following the decision of President, Bidya Bhandari to accept the recommendations of his cabinet to dissolve the parliament and hold mid term polls on Nov.12 and 19.
In his pursuit to cling to power, Oli’s Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) has expelled 11 MPs for going against the party and supporting the Opposition alliance led by Nepali Congress leader, Sher Bahdur Deba to form new government. PM is poised to expel another 12
more MPs of Nepa-Khanal faction who have refused to submit explanation for going against the government. Piqued over President’s controversial decision to accept the recommendations of the defeated prime minister to dissolve the house, the opposition coalition has filed a petition in the Supreme Court thereby demanding that the leader of alliance, Nepali Congress President, Sher Bahadur Deuba may be declared as new prime minister besides reinstating the House of Representatives.
The opposition alliance expects that apex court will again save democracy which was done in Dec last year when President dissolved it without adopting proper procedure hence supreme court set aside the decision and revived the parliament. As many as 146 members of the dissolved House of Representatives – 61from the Nepali Congress, 49 from the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist
Centre), 23 from the Madhav Nepal faction of the CPN-UML, 12 from the Upendra Yadav-Baburam Bhattarai of the Janata Samajbadi Party and one from Rastriya Janamorcha Nepal–have signed the petition, challenging the joint decision of PM, Oli and President Bidya Devi Bhandari to
dissolve the house on May 21 and hold fresh polls.
Experts opine that Prime Minister’s desperate move is evident from the fact that Prime minister ensured the issuance of an Ordinance through president to amend the Citizenship Act 2006 pending in parliament since August 7, 2018 thereby issuing the citizenship by descent to the
children of the parents who were citizens of Nepal prior to deadline September 20, 2015 besides the citizenship by descent to the children of a Nepali mother, whose father’s whereabouts are unknown. Interestingly, Oli had vehemently opposed the citizenship bill in parliament saying that it will lead to granting the citizenship to those people who were born out of Nepali mothers and foreign fathers, especially Indians, which emanates from the frequent marriages between Nepali women and Indian men from the bordering districts like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh etc. Secondly, Oli had stood his ground to prove his nationalism when India imposed a blockade in 2015 to express its solidarity with people of Terai region which can be attributed to the irrational and illogical provision in Nepal constitution about citizenship which was discriminatory in nature. But now Oli finds it logical because he could save his chair with the help of two factional leaders of Janata Samajbadi party representing Terai region in Nepal as they saved his chair and this is how politics works in every country.
Constitutional experts are aghast over the discretion of President not to give enough chance to opposition combine of three parties including Nepali Congress, Maoists Centre led by Pushap Kamal Dahal, ‘Prachanda’, Janata Samajbadi faction headed by Upendera yadav besides open support of Madhav Nepal-Jhala Nath Khanal faction of the CPN-UML which have mandatory strength to provide an alternate government. Nepali Press has lambasted her decision and comparing her to Louis XIV who believed in the principle “I AM THE STATE”. To sabotage the attempt of rivals, PM Oli had also submitted a list of 153 MPs to president though he could muster the strength of 93 MPs during the trust vote hence faced a defeat in the parliament on May 10.
The President of Nepal had justified her decision not to invite any leader to form the alternate government saying that none fulfilled the provisions of the constitution to form the alternate government. Experts opine that Oli was desperate to dissolve house and opted for midterm polls after losing majority. He had earlier raised the controversy about Lord Ram calling him Nepali and his kingdom is located in Birgunj in Nepal whereas Sydhya lies in Throri village of his country. Such wild and reckless claims were aimed at influencing the Hindu votes. Oli may aggressively sell an idea of nationalism by citing his action of redrawing the map which showed some Indian territories in Nepal. PM may like to show himself as victim of anti India tirade owing to this nationalist action. He had also strongly opposed constriction of road to Kailash Manserovar by India and union defence Minister Rajnath Singh had inaugurated it last year.
Interestingly, it was for the second time when the House was dissolved in five months. Oli had suddenly dissolved the House on December 20 last year and called for snap polls for April 30 and May 10, throwing the country into political turmoil. Analysts attribute different factors which led to fall from grace of prime minister including Supreme Court adverse verdict, split in party, Chinese interference, anti India approach, etc. In a historical and unprecedented decision, apex court had reinstated Nepalese parliament on Feb 23 and described Prime Minister, Khada
Prasad Oli’s action to dissolve house of representative as illegal and Unconstitutional. The court also ordered the government to summon the House session within the next 13 days by March 7. Nepal had plunged into a political crisis on 20 December last year after President, Bidya Dev Bhandari dissolved the House on the recommendations of PM, Oli and announced fresh elections on 30 April and 10 May amidst a tussle for power within the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP).
Though Nepal PM had argued that visit of China’s defence minister last year was having nothing to do with the crisis in his country yet it did appear to be the last-ditch effort by the Dragon to save its loyal friend. Chinese defence minister assured Oli of protection of the sovereignty of Nepal. Anti Oli critics alleged that Chinese ambassador to Nepal was working like an extension of the PMO of Nepal and lobbying day and night to save communist government.
According to Nepal media reports, Oli was so desperate to cling to power that he went to the extent of seeking an emergency help from arch political rival, Nepali Congress. The opposition party, which was waiting in wings to witness the downfall of communist government under
its own weight, rejected the offer. Analysts feel that Nepal is poised to engulf itself in Covid fallout
and local people expect repeat of election commission of India’s action to permit a huge election rallies which may become Super Spreader of the virus as Nepal election commission is also at under
the influence of current prime minister of Oli who is bent upon weakening the democracy in this country.
India has maintained a deft silence over developments in Nepal since May 21 which has demoralised Nepali congress, considered close to our country. In a belated reaction, external affairs ministry said that recent developments in Nepal, including Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s decision to dissolve parliament and crisis in ruling party, as internal matters which is to be tackled within the neighbouring country’s democratic processes. Experts feel that India should now wait for outcome of polls and formulate a clear policy to deal with new dispensation in Nepal.