The current dip in the Indo-Pak relations is attributed to the Parliamentary elections in India. The hardliners in power, as the analyses reflect, stick harder to the presumption that by taking a tough stance against Pakistan they can woo the voters. The opinion circulates global media, and nationally in Pakistan and India. Pulwama incident, and its aftermath, came in handy for the ruling BJP.
And this is not just about the opinion doing rounds, the political parties within India have openly spoken about it. In Kashmir the parties participating in elections also publicly spoke about it. Across the border, the PM of Pakistan, Imran Khan made statements that the relation between the two countries will remain strained till the elections in India are over.
This now appears as common knowledge, almost a given. What can skip our attention is the possibility of the relations dipping further. By dipping further one doesn’t mean a shrill rhetoric against Pakistan in the election campaign of the BJP go further up.
The danger is that some misadventure on part of the hardcore elements, state and non-state, can result in some unanticipated incident that can spoil the relations in the long term.
In an atmosphere of hate, violence, and triumphalism there are chances that it can slip out of hand. There are no guarantees that the relations between the two countries can suddenly return to normal just after the elections. When you whip up frenzy, things can sometimes take on their own dynamic.
What will happen to the Indo-Pak relations all the while this election campaign runs, and how it pans out afterwards, deserves a keen interest. But in Kashmir, it is not just Indo-Pak, a keener eye on what happens in Kashmir is required. It is not only Pakistan that heats up the election atmosphere, Kashmir is a hotter subject for the ruling party. As the rhetoric, accompanied by a display of action, reflects, Kashmir is bound to boil.
The recent actions taken by the government indicate the mood. Banning organisations, constricting space for media, arresting political leaders and activists – the message is clear. The message is loud too, and no wonder if it becomes louder. More organisations banned, more people arrested, more stringent laws invoked, and more iron infused into policy and practice.
This PEW survey that shows people in India want harshermeasures taken in Kashmir, fits well in the picture. That means ‘people’ demandit, and there is a ‘popular sanction’ to what is done in Kashmir. One doesn’tknow who these people are, and who told them what about Kashmir! But in allthis who speaks what, this is clear even to the dim witted. Cumulatively, itmeans more slogging as the elections come nearer.
But once the elections are over what would happen? Of courseit depends on who wins and by what margin. Modi can return to power as earlier.Modi can return to power, but unlike 2014, his mandate would be weaker –marginally or significantly. And the third option is that he will not return topower at all.
In each of these cases the impact on Kashmir would vary. But the relations between India and Pakistan, the chances are, might witness a thaw. There are reasons for this. One, even if Modi returns to power, and that too with a strong mandate, he will have less reasons to escalate.
Two, the damage that Modi did to his image at international level might goad him to behave differently. After all on the other side of the pitch Imran Khan has bowled some brilliant deliveries. Modi might like to take a fresh stance, re-assess the field positioning, and take a calm look at the score board. Third, the vibes from Pakistan point towards a warming up. The opening up of the Kartarpur Corridor is not an event in isolation. The talk about another opening – Shrada Peeth Corridor – is very significant.
If there is an international demand on both the countries tomend fences, there is a likelihood thata Peace Process might be rolled out. If that happens the challenge for thepolitical parties in Kashmir, more for Hurriyat, but no less for NC, PDP andthe serious new comers, is to sense the change and act accordingly.
The failure of the previous Peace Process, and its consequences on Kashmir’s Muslim society, offer crucial lessons to Hurriyat. Now that the distinction of Moderate and Hardliner has evaporated, it is time more informed stand is taken, and the process is utilised to strengthen the non-violent constructive political movement in Kashmir.
An angry rejection of such things finally results in damaging the Kashmir’s Muslim Society. And from a damaged society you cannot expect a productive politics. The political leadership that is right now in jails, or confined to houses, facing very tough times, would face a tougher time in dealing with the times ahead. The key is to walk outside the trap of bitterness, and allow some fresh air to lighten up the minds.
That for our own reasons. To our own good.