The split of Soviet Union and balkanization of communist Balkan rendered USA the sole world power, charged with more arrogance and might and an added effect of having NATO at its beck and call. Then Islamic terrorism was coined, perceived as a threat that endangered the US run new world order, consequently the imposed war on terrorism all over the globe turning cities in to rubble – yemen, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya and Pakistan. The failure of war on terrorism over past more than one and a half decade in Afghanistan has rattled America. Trump’s statement that America was no more interested in building Democracies around the world but to crush terrorism, reflects the same. Trump’s new national security doctrine has been furnished with the main focus on fast changing world order particularly a parallel security block of China and Russia having assumed form. Its allies like Pakistan, a vast Central Asia, Iran, Turkey and perhaps North Korea have baffled Trump administration, the signs of which can clearly be read from his policy statements. China’s trade expansion especially CPEC and the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) was already not less than a nightmare for USA and later the involvement of Russia with it caused desperate straits for Trump. The CPEC and BRI projects have inevitably fostered a trade tug of war in the region. Pertinently the US war ploy in Syria received a big jolt at the hands of Russia, which made it to emerge as a military power in the Middle East. After the national security plan, Trump has come up on 2nd February with a new Nuclear strategy. In the meanwhile the American special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction’s audit report has been published with all facts and figures. The most recent policy statements of President Trump, Defense secretary James Mattis and other concerned officials are configured so as to fit in this strategy frame work. The policy unveils American plans to reinvigorate and modernize its Nuclear arsenal since she believes that China and Russia have already entered the race of propagating and modernizing their Nuclear arsenals. This might not worry people outside Asia, But Asia and particularly South Asian subcontinent has every reason to be apprehensive of the consequences, because China, some of its allies and some parts of Russia are in Asia, where as American troops in Kabul still haunt Pakistan on Taliban issue. The Americans smell a rat that China and Russia have nuclear weapons which could be launched without long range ballistic missiles and are enormously capable of annihilating vast areas of human populace instead of a low yield effect. The new nuclear doctrine reveals that Russia has advanced much in this perspective than America, thus she is left with no option other than to compete. It is paramount that America in its neo-security and neo-nuclear strategy has already declared China and Russia its enemy states. The presence of US in Afghanistan is adding new dangerous dimensions to it. Pakistan has lost a 455 million US dollar military aid as logistic support from US on Afghanistan. The US audit report on Afghanistan, the S.I.G.R, has shown 2 billion US dollars to have been misused that has exposed the large scale corruption and maladroit rampant in Afghanistan. This might have prompted Trump to emphasize on its all weather ally India to spend more and more money on Afghanistan. According to a recent report from pentagon’s Asia affairs in charge Randal Secreger, America is spending 45 billion dollars on Afghanistan annually. This reflects that in Afghanistan the mining of natural resources of “Mineral Mines” has not yet been effective to meet any portion of the National expenditure. It has unveiled that most of American interests have not been safeguarded in Afghanistan and it continues to feed on American economy. The S.I.G.R report has further exposed many of America’s military, economic and financials debacles in the past 16 years. The China-Mongolia connection, a vast Central Asia and Russia’s neighborhood has positioned Afghanistan into the epicenter of Great Power Game which is tightening the noose around US present over there. It was amply supported by the defense secretary James Mattis’s renewed strategic statement that Great Power competition not terrorism is now the primary focus of US national strategy. Russia developed sophisticated modern new regional devastative nuclear explosives seems to be plausible that is compelling the US to follow the suit to develop a new nuclear force. The defense analysts expect a one trillion dollar expenditure by US to achieve this nuclear goal, and equate Russia. In fact US has been engaged in successfully developing nuclear cruise missiles which could evade enemy radar system, flying at a low level across the sea and capable of releasing poisonous gases that annihilate all forms of life on earth. The focus of development of small nuclear weapon force that has reportedly a limited zone of destruction while South Asia might be the target, since America’s focus is China –Russia block. The new generation drones have been tested in Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past more than a decade and it is probably the time for experimenting with new generation nuclear bombs and cruise missiles. Afghanistan forms the nucleus of American interests and the most favorable zone for containment of China and Russia in the altogether changed world power Game. America needs to monitor the newly emerging block and the risk of a limited nuclear holocaust would be hovering over the sub-continent. Pakistan being close ally of China and now Russia cannot escape the brunt of conflict of major powers in this region, though it would be premature to say that the super power conflict would engulf south Asia. It could be somewhere else, depending on the zone of conflict of interests and priorities attributed to it. But one thing is getting crystal clear that South Asia would be gradually witnessing weaponization with destructive weapons and might become the garrison of world armies. Well understood, America would prefer to engage its rivals far away from its soil. In the wake of the creation of precursors of war in south Asia by the world powers, the next theatre for world war, as previously predicted by several military think tanks in Europe, would be Asia, after experiencing Ist and 2nd world wars by the West. Israel has apropos, expanded its political influence for the first time in South Asia and Central Asia where as the conventional rivals India and Pakistan’s belligerence seems to be unending and issues unresolved. The future would keenly be waiting for what is in store, particularly for South Asia.
Dr. Muzaffar Shaheen is Senior Associate Professor, SKUAST-K.